Get a cup of tea for this one if you can be arsed, this is a HTT-style length of the Magna Carta special.
I've tried to come up with a scoring system for every game since the cup final to make a bit more sense of things. Before going through this exercise I'd say i'm somewhere in the middle somewhere of the two main camps, the positive camp (Eddie will sort it, great history of getting back on track after a rocky period, still only a few league wins off Europe & still in all three cups) and the negative camp (games since cup final largely been a chore to watch, too much late goal leakage, poor use of summer funds, seems bereft of ideas).
Where I've got to is that I think it's the nature of either the performances or the manner in which the result has arrived rather than the results on their own that has quite a lot of people, to varying degrees, asking questions about where we go from here (with or without the manager depending on viewpoint). I've included scoring or conceding late as I think that has a pretty large bearing on how you feel about a result if it's been snatched away late or gained something right at the death.
The system I've settled on is as follows. There are many holes in this & it won't be perfect.
0 points for a loss
1 point for a draw
2 points for a win
-1 point for poor performance
-1 point for conceding a late (85'+) goal that altered the end outcome
-1 point for a loss with a 2+ goal margin
0 points for OK/fine/meh performance - mixed bag or "did the job" type showing
+1 point for good performance
+1 point for scoring a late (85'+) goal that altered the end outcome
+1 point for a win with 2+ goal margin
So in theory you could have a max score per game of +5 and a minimum score of -3, meaning 1 is the mid point. The idea here is to offset unfortunate losses or draws with performance points to give a measure of how we're playing, but also give extra marks when we've really put sides to the sword. I've been fair as I can and there were 4 occasions when I really wavered between 0/+1 or 0/-1 for performance points and on all of those occasions I went with the extreme of the two. If I couldn't remember I referred to EH's remarks after the game for a steer.
This is obviously open to interpretation and others will have different viewpoints on the performance variable, but here goes:
(2024/25)
Brentford (h), 2-1 win: fairly close game, performance described by the manager as "not pretty" but ultimately did the job. 2 points
Leicester (a), 3-0 win: scored early, played well, pissed it. 4 points
Man U (h), 4-1 win: ran away with it second half, scored some really nice goals. 4 points
Palace (h), 5-0 win: took the piss first half, played very well. 4 points
Villa (a), 4-1 loss: hung in the game for 70 mins but ultimately crumbled badly second half. -2 points
Ipswich (h), 3-0 win: slightly edgy first half until scoring just before HT, ran away with it comfortably second half. 4 points
Brighton (a), 1-1 draw: disappointing performance but got a late penalty and ultimately salvaged a decent point on the road. 2 points
Chelsea (h), 2-0 win: scored early, decent first half, opposition red card, clung on somewhat second half before clinching late. 3 points
Arsenal (a), 1-0 loss: not a bad performance as we peppered Raya early but didn't look like scoring after going a goal down early second half. 0 points
Everton (h), 1-0 loss: poor performance, didn't look like scoring all day, rightly beaten. -1 point
(2025/26)
Villa (a), 0-0 draw: played well but toiled a bit against ten men late on and deserved to win, ultimately hamstrung by lack of striker. 2 points
Liverpool (h), 3-2 loss: played well first half, played unbelievably well second half with ten men, lost to late gut punch after scoring late leveller ourselves. 1 point
Leeds (a), 0-0 draw: defensively strong, created next to nothing, ultimately relied on opposition being equally goal shy. 1 point
Wolves (h), 1-0 win: nervy game and very much a "got the job done" performance. 2 points
Barcelona (h), lost 2-1: ultimately we were good, but just undone by a side with far superior quality in a few moments. 1 point
Bournemouth (a), drew 0-0: similar to Leeds in that we were very decent at the back but a non-event going forwards. Very useful point on the road. 1 point
Bradford (h), won 4-1: lower league opposition put to the sword well with a changed team. 4 points
Arsenal (h), lost 2-1: took the lead, did not play particularly well and conceded two late, massive kick in the balls. -2 points
USG (a), won 4-0: never really in doubt, sub-standard opposition but played very well and took them apart ruthlessly. 4 points
Forest (h), won 2-0: ran into opponents in disarray but put them away with an efficient, effective showing. 3 points
Brighton (a), lost 2-1: manager assessed this one as a poor first half, much better in second half and dragged ourselves back into it, but we then threw it away with a shit goal late on. -1 point
Benfica (h), won 3-0: very good performance, racked up loads of shots on target and corners, ran away with it. 4 points
Fulham (h), won 2-1: another "got the job done" mixed bag of a performance but with the distinction of a last gasp winner from Bruno. 3 points
Spurs (h), won 2-0: more of an even game than the score suggests but ultimately did enough and didn't look troubled after the second goal. 3 points
West Ham (a), lost 3-1: faced opponents on long bad run, scored early and absolutely capitulated. Unable to fashion a single proper chance having gone 2-1 down on stroke of HT. -2 points
Bilbao (h), won 2-0: Good response to the previous game, scored early and never looked troubled after that. 4 points
Man City (h), won 2-1: A very good gutsy performance and deservedly won. 3 points
Marseille (a), lost 2-1: scored early, played well first half, ridiculous goalkeeping error and shit the bed early second half. Rallied a bit but couldn't level the game. 0 points
Everton (a), 4-1 win: scored early, pressed home the advantage and never looked in danger after second goal. Good performance all round. 4 points
Spurs (h), 2-2 draw: mixed bag of a performance including a late leveller and conceding a late leveller. 1 point
Burnley (h), 2-1 win: good first half, very disappointing second half against ten men, conceded late pen and then almost threw it away at the death. 2 points
Leverkusen (a), 2-2 draw: mixed bag performance, ultimately did well to overcome early deficit and drag ourselves into the game but conceded late to bin two points. 0 points
Sunderland (a), 1-0 loss: a fucking disgrace from start to finish, nuff said already by us all. -1 point
So, some numbers now I've gone through that exercise. 1 is the middling score, if you like, on the scale.
Since the cup final average: 1.72
Back end of last season average: 2.00
This season average: 1.61
Last ten games average: 1.40
All league games average: 1.48
This season league games average: 1.13
This season cup & Europe average: 2.50
All home games average: 2.37
All away games average: 0.86 (!)
What I'm taking from this is:
"We've been shit since the cup final" is a bit of a myth. We actually did class for the next 8 games other than a single blotting of the copy book away at Villa. The final two games of the season where we were quite poor and got bad results have maybe stained this narrative somewhat. This season has definitely seen a downturn in results and performances although there are some good showings and good results littered throughout 2025 (often not in the same games either).
Away form since the cup final is a massive, massive problem (duh: we all know this). We're class at home (still only lost to Everton, Arsenal, Liverpool and Barca in our last 19 home games). It does help we've had 19 at home vs 14 away over this sample when that's the pattern you're in but I can't hold that against us when they're not full season samples and our domestic cup draws are 2 and 0 in favour of home ties.
Based on this admittedly creaky scoring system, it is getting worse if you compare overall average, end of last season average, this season average and last 10 games average. There's a clear downturn in results and performances both this season and in the most recent run of games. The margins are pretty tight in most games still, which helps towards a view that it can be fixed or we simply get a bit of luck that we need sooner rather than later.
There's a firm possibility that the team raises itself or expends more energy in cup games. We don't know if that's driven by the manager or not, who always plays a straight bat when asked about prioritising cup games or league games with "the next game is the most important". There's a chance you could just attribute this to Europe too as we've only played two domestic cup games in this time and one was a stroll against lower division opposition. Our post midweek cup/Europe game results are a "not as bad as I expected but still not amazing" W3, D1, L4.
We still aren't losing many games by more than a single goal, especially if you allow West Ham and Brentford last gasp goals as us chasing the game and leaving space. Villa was the only true "out of it before stoppage time" drubbing we've taken in 33 games. We're pretty much always in every game we play and the margins are often tight, and have swung the way against us more than they have swung for us in the more even games or games we've done well in but not won. On the other side we've administered plenty more of 2+ goal wins ourselves (12 wins against 3 losses).
We've only scored four late goals ourselves that altered the outcome and we ended up then conceding an even later one on two of those four occasions. Only Bruno's at home to Fulham was a late winner. There's a possibility that the team are tired and not coping well with the increase in games, from both a mental and physical standpoint. We're told we get next to no training time with the schedule, which fits with this theory. But we can't just accept that we're going to piss away late points all the time, the manager needs to find a solution for it and quickly. It'll always happen from time to time but it's beyond a joke lately.
So where has that left my thinking?
It's left me probably reassessing my view slightly more in favour of it not being as bad as it feels. Margins tight, still running over plenty of sides at home, been missing key players for a lot of this season. I think the summer has played a huge part in the bad feeling with what felt like three months of knock backs and only Thiaw firmly asserting himself as a strong addition so far, the others being ranked (so far) from somewhere inbetween "promising work in progress" to "absolutely dog shit". The late goals and away form also mean that a good proportion of our games leave you with a feeling of frustration (even if the end result is actually OK) or that they were a chore to watch overall. That and a thankfully poor, tight Premier League this year is probably pointing to the fact that things aren't as fucked as I can sometimes lead myself to believe.
And of course, sticking to my scale, the result on Sunday goes down as -1 point but given the depth the performance plumbed and the emotional nature of the derby it's definitely having a bigger weigh-down on feeling than my sketchy system suggests on me, and others. I'd give it -10 if I was going to let myself
If anyone is arsed or has read this far (well done) I'll come back to this in another handful of games (maybe next 10?) and re-assess what the numbers look like.
Bonus points to the first "TL;DR" reply, btw. Oh, and of course other opinions are both available and welcomed.