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The long road ahead. What next for Newcastle United?


The Prophet

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If Mike Ashley is adamant that he will sell a promoted NUFC, then I hope we can secure promotion as quickly as possible. An extra few weeks at the end of this season would do wonders in such a sale and would give us time to make proper changes going into the Premier League for the next.

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Guest Geordiecunny

I think the fat one will sell what's left of our talent in january thinking it will claw him money back and in the process fuck over our promotion campaign. Then after not getting promoted anyone will move if they can get any club, leaving us with loanees and kids in the team. Hughton will get sacked three weeks into next season and we'll go down again.

Even if we do go up, I think he'll price us out of a sale. It's all or nothing in terms of going up, there's no way we'll maintain a squad like this for more than one season in this league.

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Guest Guivarch

i honestly think had we been midtable we'd have been sold. ashley will be thinking if we do up with what we have he can get a lot more.

 

I think the same would have been true if we'd been getting lower attendances.

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He is gambling again on promotion and will gamble again on a sale if promoted.  If these gambles fail again then we'll either be in the champ or a side looking at relegation cos i cant see him investing anything the club makes into the first team if he wants to do a shoot.

 

 

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There's plenty to be optimistic about. We're top of the league of course, and this has been achieved whilst missing some key players - both central defenders and our best striker missing for the recent poor performances.

 

The crippling running costs are heavily reduced due to the departure of expensive underperforming players, and will be reduced even further at the end of the season when we lose Butt and Geremi. We do have other high earners, but at least they are contributing with performances, save for Barton at the moment. There are also a lot of talented kids getting some valuable experience - this was a massive factor in the success of the early 90's with the likes of Watson, Clark, Cole and Howey getting blooded in the second tier before stepping up the Premier League.

 

And although its boring, we're one of the few clubs effectively free of debt. Whilst Ashley is the owner we pay no interest. Once he sells the debt is effectively written off.

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I am determined that Newcastle United is not only here today, but that it is also there tomorrow for your children who stand beside you at sportsdirect.com @ St James’ Park stadium.

 

I still belive that the fat cunt meant this. It's part of his origional "the clubs on the market statement". Thats why he wont sell.

 

So the future is better than most people think. If he did give up custodianship . then things could be far worse. Just think , owing 450 million in a personal loans to a guy wanted by the Kremlin

 

I've read it a dozen times and I don't understand what this post is trying to say at all, but it's got me intrigued as to what you think Ashley's plan was/is.

 

Are you also saying we should be grateful we're not Chelsea or something?

 

And although its boring, we're one of the few clubs effectively free of debt. Whilst Ashley is the owner we pay no interest. Once he sells the debt is effectively written off.

 

There is a clause against his loan saying he can charge interest at 0.5% over the inter bank lending rate (from 07-08 accounts). He didn't charge it that year but he could in the future (though to be fair, it's still a very good rate for a football club loan even if he does charge it). He could be charging the club for it now for all we know (but it would currently only be just over £1m a year).

 

There's nothing to stop a buyer from borrowing money against the club to fund the purchase (apart from the current difficulties in borrowing cash, but that will ease in the future) so saying that the debt to Ashley will be written off is meaningless and not even necessarily true.

 

 

If Ashley manages to sell the club (even if we're promoted) for anything near what he has spent on it, it will be absolutely criminal considering the significantly worse state the club will be in. If Ashley doesn't sell I have no doubt that at the very best we will be a constant PL struggler as he claws back his investment bit by bit.

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I am determined that Newcastle United is not only here today, but that it is also there tomorrow for your children who stand beside you at sportsdirect.com @ St James’ Park stadium.

 

I still belive that the fat cunt meant this. It's part of his origional "the clubs on the market statement". Thats why he wont sell.

 

So the future is better than most people think. If he did give up custodianship . then things could be far worse. Just think , owing 450 million in a personal loans to a guy wanted by the Kremlin

 

I've read it a dozen times and I don't understand what this post is trying to say at all, but it's got me intrigued as to what you think Ashley's plan was/is.

 

Are you also saying we should be grateful we're not Chelsea or something?

 

And although its boring, we're one of the few clubs effectively free of debt. Whilst Ashley is the owner we pay no interest. Once he sells the debt is effectively written off.

 

There is a clause against his loan saying he can charge interest at 0.5% over the inter bank lending rate (from 07-08 accounts). He didn't charge it that year but he could in the future (though to be fair, it's still a very good rate for a football club loan even if he does charge it). He could be charging the club for it now for all we know (but it would currently only be just over £1m a year).

 

There's nothing to stop a buyer from borrowing money against the club to fund the purchase (apart from the current difficulties in borrowing cash, but that will ease in the future) so saying that the debt to Ashley will be written off is meaningless and not even necessarily true.

 

 

If Ashley manages to sell the club (even if we're promoted) for anything near what he has spent on it, it will be absolutely criminal considering the significantly worse state the club will be in. If Ashley doesn't sell I have no doubt that at the very best we will be a constant PL struggler as he claws back his investment bit by bit.

 

How can it be meaningless? Ashley bought a company for for £130m which had £70m worth of debt it needed to service. Also the existence of that £70m worth of debt mean that borrowing any more was highly unlikely, if not dangerous.

 

If the club gets sold, £80m or so will purchase a company with £0 debt, ignoring any working capital overdraft, which will be less than £10m in any event. This means less debt to service, but also the ability (if a purchaser wants to) to gear the company up and borrow at the appropriate level, when borrowing conditions improve.

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I am determined that Newcastle United is not only here today, but that it is also there tomorrow for your children who stand beside you at sportsdirect.com @ St James Park stadium.

 

I still belive that the fat c*** meant this. It's part of his origional "the clubs on the market statement". Thats why he wont sell.

 

So the future is better than most people think. If he did give up custodianship . then things could be far worse. Just think , owing 450 million in a personal loans to a guy wanted by the Kremlin

 

I've read it a dozen times and I don't understand what this post is trying to say at all, but it's got me intrigued as to what you think Ashley's plan was/is.

 

Are you also saying we should be grateful we're not Chelsea or something?

 

And although its boring, we're one of the few clubs effectively free of debt. Whilst Ashley is the owner we pay no interest. Once he sells the debt is effectively written off.

 

There is a clause against his loan saying he can charge interest at 0.5% over the inter bank lending rate (from 07-08 accounts). He didn't charge it that year but he could in the future (though to be fair, it's still a very good rate for a football club loan even if he does charge it). He could be charging the club for it now for all we know (but it would currently only be just over £1m a year).

 

There's nothing to stop a buyer from borrowing money against the club to fund the purchase (apart from the current difficulties in borrowing cash, but that will ease in the future) so saying that the debt to Ashley will be written off is meaningless and not even necessarily true.

 

 

If Ashley manages to sell the club (even if we're promoted) for anything near what he has spent on it, it will be absolutely criminal considering the significantly worse state the club will be in. If Ashley doesn't sell I have no doubt that at the very best we will be a constant PL struggler as he claws back his investment bit by bit.

 

How can it be meaningless? Ashley bought a company for for £130m which had £70m worth of debt it needed to service. Also the existence of that £70m worth of debt mean that borrowing any more was highly unlikely, if not dangerous.

 

If the club gets sold, £80m or so will purchase a company with £0 debt, ignoring any working capital overdraft, which will be less than £10m in any event. This means less debt to service, but also the ability (if a purchaser wants to) to gear the company up and borrow at the appropriate level, when borrowing conditions improve.

The club will have debts when sold, whatever money Ashley puts in is a loan to the club so now I have that at around 120M, factor in the 22m Overdraft that means we are 142M in debt and will be when we are taken over unless the club generates insane profits.

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How can it be meaningless? Ashley bought a company for for £130m which had £70m worth of debt it needed to service. Also the existence of that £70m worth of debt mean that borrowing any more was highly unlikely, if not dangerous.

 

If the club gets sold, £80m or so1 will purchase a company with £0 debt2, ignoring any working capital overdraft, which will be less than £10m3 in any event. This means less debt to service, but also the ability (if a purchaser wants to) to gear the company up and borrow at the appropriate level, when borrowing conditions improve.

 

1 - Assumption based on nothing substantial. Would change if we were promoted.

2 - Assumption based on nothing at all (though highly likely).

3 - It's over £10M currently.

 

However, I'll use these numbers anyway. Say a buyer has £20m cash, and can get someone to loan him £60m using the club itself as security for the loan. He pays Ashley £80m for the club and takes on a £10m overdraft. What do we end up with? A club which owes £70m, with everything secured on the existing loan (so absolutely no scope for more loans), and a massively weaker squad with far less inherent value (saleable players) than the one Ashley took over.

 

What Ashley paid for the club, the fact that he paid up debts to previous lenders, and the amount he has subsequently had to put in to cover the cost of his cockups are all irrelevant as to how any new owner will finance the purchase of the club in the future. So saying the club is "effectively free of debt" when it is currently over £130m in debt and future owners are a complete unknown is meaningless.

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The deal on the table is £80m (just over, but close enough). This is the purchase price for the outstanding Ashley debt, the shares are £1 - probably so Ashley can move the huge loss on the share disposal elsewhere in his group, but I'm no tax expert.

 

I don't think I'm disagreeing too much with what you say, I accept that if new buyer borrows money to acquire the club, and has to service that debt at a proper interest rate, then you're close to back to where you started. However if the new owner puts in equity, it has scope to borrow more funds to invest in the team.

 

Going back to my original point which was trying to take an optimistic view on life, if (big IF) we get promoted, and the club gets sold to a new owner on the basis of the deal on offer, financially the club is liekly to be on a better financial footing in terms of debt and running costs (long term commitments to crap players on lucrative contracts) than we were just before Ashley took over. That is my reason to be optimistic - yes there are big IFs with promotion and whether a new owner doesn't borrow to the hilt to get the club, but we can but hope.

 

 

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If we go up we'll be back down season after if Ashley is still in charge.  He's not going to spend more than about  2 million on players so how can we stay up? Hopefully Moat is working behind the scene to raise the money to buy the fat bastard out. We can only hope.

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Guest Chris P

I am determined that Newcastle United is not only here today, but that it is also there tomorrow for your children who stand beside you at sportsdirect.com @ St James’ Park stadium.

 

I still belive that the fat c*** meant this. It's part of his origional "the clubs on the market statement". Thats why he wont sell.

 

So the future is better than most people think. If he did give up custodianship . then things could be far worse. Just think , owing 450 million in a personal loans to a guy wanted by the Kremlin

 

I've read it a dozen times and I don't understand what this post is trying to say at all, but it's got me intrigued as to what you think Ashley's plan was/is.

 

Are you also saying we should be grateful we're not Chelsea or something?

 

And although its boring, we're one of the few clubs effectively free of debt. Whilst Ashley is the owner we pay no interest. Once he sells the debt is effectively written off.

 

There is a clause against his loan saying he can charge interest at 0.5% over the inter bank lending rate (from 07-08 accounts). He didn't charge it that year but he could in the future (though to be fair, it's still a very good rate for a football club loan even if he does charge it). He could be charging the club for it now for all we know (but it would currently only be just over £1m a year).

 

There's nothing to stop a buyer from borrowing money against the club to fund the purchase (apart from the current difficulties in borrowing cash, but that will ease in the future) so saying that the debt to Ashley will be written off is meaningless and not even necessarily true.

 

 

If Ashley manages to sell the club (even if we're promoted) for anything near what he has spent on it, it will be absolutely criminal considering the significantly worse state the club will be in. If Ashley doesn't sell I have no doubt that at the very best we will be a constant PL struggler as he claws back his investment bit by bit.

 

Dont have a clew what he's up too with all this for sale not for sale business. The reallity is that there are no rich americans , Barry moat hasn't got a pot to piss in, etc .In terms of todays economic climate there is no one out there who is prepared to throw 200 million down the tubes , which is the kind of investment that would be needed to compete with the top boys. maybe more.

 

How is abrahamovic going to get back his 450 million .How are the glazers, gonna get back their investment. (if you can call it that)

 

Ticket sales?

 

I refer you to  the Platini comments in the other thread.

 

 

 

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