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NFL 2021: Playoffs


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13 minutes ago, Shak said:

(I'd typed out a long AF thing on the QB situation since Manning but the fucking forum dropped it and now it's gone...

 

Fuck sake :lol:

 

Any actual interest in reading it if I do it again or will I save myself reliving the nightmare again for no reason?)

 

Argh, that's annoying.

 

Interested yes. Although I have my own theories [emoji38]

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22 minutes ago, Shak said:

 

Gimme your theories then, if they're somewhat accurate it'll save me the bother :lol:

 

Well, in brief:

 

- post-Superbowl you figured you had a repeatable formula for winning. You'd just won a ring with the No Fly Zone D carrying an awful QB. No need to invest massively in QB

- Results deteriorated, Elway thought his own pedigree as a QB translated perfectly into QB evaluation, and as it became evident he was shite, he tried to increase the probability of hitting paydirt by rotating them quickly while he still had some rope left as GM

- He ran out of rope and now you might actually invest properly 

 

 

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At 4-8, it doesn't really matter. Naively, I believe more losses might mean change at the top, so I'm all for it. Although paradoxically did enjoy the win. Very much win-win from now until the end of the season :) If Wilson is to be traded in the summer, be nice if he showed out and had a good end (kept his draft capital value astronomical :laugh:). Hope he isn't traded obviously.

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Oh I'm fully on the fail train if its means some changes. Question is does Russ go or does Pete go? I'm much more a fan of Russ and would prefer a new coach, but if Pete stays who would you get a QB? Either way something needs to change. 

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9 hours ago, Beren said:

 

Well, in brief:

 

- post-Superbowl you figured you had a repeatable formula for winning. You'd just won a ring with the No Fly Zone D carrying an awful QB. No need to invest massively in QB

- Results deteriorated, Elway thought his own pedigree as a QB translated perfectly into QB evaluation, and as it became evident he was shite, he tried to increase the probability of hitting paydirt by rotating them quickly while he still had some rope left as GM

- He ran out of rope and now you might actually invest properly 

 

 

 

Sort of. I don't actually think that was the initial plan post-Manning but it kind of went that way, largely due to how the 2016 off-season played out IMO.

 

The plan was to re-sign Osweiler and let him take over as starter. However his contract had just expired and he was pissy about Manning coming back in for the playoffs so he took Houston's offer instead (Von was also out of contract and coming off a Superbowl MVP so got the franchise tag).

 

Elway then targeted Kaepernick and had a trade agreed with the 49ers. He wanted him to rework his contract but Kap was holding firm going into the draft. Elway was always hilariously bad at keeping his draft intentions secret and by all accounts the QB they seemed most interested in was actually Dak. Was quite the surprise then that they traded up a few spots to select Paxton Lynch, who they hadn't even had in for a pre-draft visit. Apparently Dak missed a flight to his official pre-draft meeting with Denver and then had a DUI the month before, possibly leading to them having some concerns about him. Had they bothered to meet with Lynch they'd have quickly learned that he was an absolute doofus with no work ethic.

 

Funnily enough, Dallas tried really hard to trade up for Lynch too. The Seahawks went with the Denver offer instead and we got Lynch. Dallas then took a flier on Dak in the 4th.

 

Even more hilariously, the reason both teams were trying to jump up into the Seahawks' spot was that the pick after them belonged to the Chiefs, who were looking for a young QB to groom behind Alex Smith. Andy Reid seemingly liked Lynch's tools and thought he was ideal to be the QBOTF. After missing out, they then got Mahomes the next year instead.

 

Good times.

 

Anyway, that disaster took two years to fully play out and the next time they were after a QB was in 2018. Going into that draft the two QBs Elway seemed to like in the pre-draft process were Darnold and Allen. They had the #5 pick and he tried to trade up to #2 for Darnold once word got out the Browns were going Mayfield but the Giants wouldn't move back as they wanted Saquon. The belief seems to be that the experience with Lynch made him bottle taking Josh Allen, who on paper was a very similar prospect. Chubb unexpectedly fell to #5 and they were delighted to take him but had the Browns gone with Chubb there was a deal in place with Buffalo to move back from #5. They had decided to pass on Allen.

 

The Chubb pick/non Allen pick was I think the moment that Elway went into thinking he could just build a dominant defense and win with a solid veteran QB. I don't think he fully comprehended how special that 2015 defense was, it's just not something you can replicate year after year.

 

(Drafting Allen and retaining Shaq Barrett might have been the way to go. Again, all much easier in retrospect :lol:)

 

Even Lock they initially passed on, he was the QB that Elway liked of the 2019 class and was thought of as a potential first round pick but they traded back from #10 and then passed on Lock again at #19. By the time their second round pick came around they just had to pick him as he was the highest player on their board. However, they'd traded for Flacco and Elway had just hired Fangio as HC and clearly the plan was Flacco to start and Lock as a developmental guy for multiple years... they really thought they'd have Flacco starting for while. Flacco played like shit and then got injured of course so ultimately they had to start Lock and once he'd looked good they had to give him the job for year two (while deciding to change the scheme from one Lock looked comfortable in to one that he wasn't a good fit for... though that decision is on Fangio by all accounts)

 

I'll be interested to see what Paton does. The narrative seems to be that this season was about giving Fangio a 3rd year to see out his and Elway's vision for the team they were building... the idea being that the GM gets something of a pass for not addressing QB this year. The coaches wanted Bridgewater and from various insiders in the team it seems like Teddy wasn't brought in to battle Lock for the job, they brought in Teddy and always intended to make him the starter. If that was the case then I think the GM deserves a bit of flack... I'd have been more alright with giving Lock another year with Teddy as the fallback than going in and thinking Teddy had a chance to be the answer at QB.

 

Hopefully he gets it right in the off-season. The upcoming QB class isn't drawing great reviews so that's not ideal. Ultimately he wasn't the final decision maker in Minnesota but in his time there the two first round QBs they drafted were Christian Ponder and Teddy Bridgewater so it seems his preference is for small, weak-armed, shite QBs.

 

Also a criticism which has been perhaps fairly leveled at him is that last year the Bears offered their '22 first rounder to Denver to move up for Fields and instead he stayed put and took Surtain. He did incredibly well to get a 2nd and 3rd for Von but having the Bears' (likely top 10) draft pick next off-season on top of that would have given him some serious ammo to go and get the QB next off-season. Surtain looks like he'll be one of our best players for the next decade but yeah, with the hole at QB if he doesn't fill it with a top option that move will haunt him... and that's before you even mention they could have just taken Fields of Mac Jones.

 

Anyway, my initial typed response wasn't anywhere near that long and I've somewhat wandered off topic. Hope this was of some interest  :lol:

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