The Relegationometer™ (2023/24)

[HaydnNUFC]

Watford are the side we should be looking to catch. They play Chelsea at home tomorrow and Man City at home on Saturday before going away to Brentford. Can make up points on that, just need to fucking win a game.

[RodneyCisse]

Win 7-8 draw 5-6 we’ll be fine.

[et tu brute]

4 minutes ago, Decky said:

Leeds penalty in stoppage time ffs. 

 

I honestly think Leeds had too much to go down anyway. The fact is that from 17th position, we are now three games off safety if you include the goal difference. I can't see anything other than that gap widening also before January.

 

 

Edited November 30, 2021 by et tu brute

[Big Geordie]

19 minutes ago, 1892er said:

Call it defeatism or reactionary, pathetic or whatever, I'm just curious on how people think we are going to do something that no other team has managed to do since the early 90s to avoid relegation? Genuine question?

 

 

 

 

it's the false hope of youth and/or wearing rose tinted specs.

[Fantail Breeze]

1 minute ago, HaydnNUFC said:

Watford are the side we should be looking to catch. They play Chelsea at home tomorrow and Man City at home on Saturday before going away to Brentford. Can make up points on that, just need to fucking win a game.

 

Palace hardly setting the world alight. Brentford too.

 

Leeds will still be in the mix despite one win.

 

We’re only nine points away from nine teams. We can easily make that gap up on at least three of them over the course of 24 games.

[LV]

Us going down definitely, whatever anyone may say, gives the PL and the clubs set to lose most by having us there another bite at the cherry of keeping us out. 
 

Whatever anyone says. 

[Ameritoon]

Not throwing in the towel because of the amount of time left and the January window. Not confident though

[Jaqen]

After the Man U game our fixtures up until the end of March are pretty good. Even if we can only get a few loans in I think we'd give ourself a chance. 

 

Really need to win on Saturday though, then go into the Leicester game with a bit of confidence. 

 

Stranger things have happened in football then a team surviving from this position. 

 

[Big Geordie]

6 minutes ago, RodneyCisse said:

Win 7-8 draw 5-6 we’ll be fine.

 

We haven't won for 14 games - it's probably the club's worst run in it's entire history.

 

And some folk think we will pull a rabbit out of the hat? Deary me.

[Superior Acuña]

I have a strong suspicion that people here would've said last season under Bruce that you were deluded if you thought we might win 5 of last 8 games, + a draw away at Anfield. (when actually you'd have been deluded to write that off)

[SUPERTOON]

4 minutes ago, Fantail Breeze said:

 

Palace hardly setting the world alight. Brentford too.

 

Leeds will still be in the mix despite one win.

 

We’re only nine points away from nine teams. We can easily make that gap up on at least three of them over the course of 24 games.

But we need to win games and we don’t look capable of doing that.

[1892er]

1 minute ago, Big Geordie said:

 

it's the false hope of youth and/or wearing rose tinted specs.

 

Coupled with the fact the teams above us already have games in hand and December's fixture list I just don't see any way you can look at that and not think, aye were fucked. 

 

 

 

 

[LV]

23 minutes ago, 1892er said:

Call it defeatism or reactionary, pathetic or whatever, I'm just curious on how people think we are going to do something that no other team has managed to do since the early 90s to avoid relegation? Genuine question?

 

 

 

I think what’s different here is that none of those clubs were the richest team in the world. January is big for us, we literally have to spend our way out. 
 

 Not convinced we’ll do that though or be able to do that if players don’t want to come. 
 

But it’s a huge factor. 

[PlymouthGeordie]

Just now, Fantail Breeze said:

 

Palace hardly setting the world alight. Brentford too.

 

Leeds will still be in the mix despite one win.

 

We’re only nine points away from nine teams. We can easily make that gap up on at least three of them over the course of 24 games.

 

We still have City and Liverpool to play twice so it's more likely 20 games.

 

I'm not one to write off matches, but those 4 games surely yield a maximum of 1 point?

 

We haven't won in 14, we've played all 3 promoted teams and you're talking about closing a 9 point gap. I'm not saying it's impossible but it's not far off.

 

Being honest, regardless of other teams results if we don't beat Burnley we're as good as done. 

 

Tonight is as flat as I've felt since the takeover. With 11 men we'd have strolled to a victory tonight. Norwich are so poor.

[et tu brute]

4 minutes ago, LV said:

Us going down definitely, whatever anyone may say, gives the PL and the clubs set to lose most by having us there another bite at the cherry of keeping us out. 
 

Whatever anyone says. 

 

And how are they going to do that then?

[OoOGazOoO]

I just can't get away from how bad our fixtures are in December and what that may do to the team's confidence. That said, with some early signings in January to improve the squad, and a bit of a boost, it may just give us a spark, but I just hope we are still in touch by that stage.

[et tu brute]

1 minute ago, PlymouthGeordie said:

 

We still have City and Liverpool to play twice so it's more likely 20 games.

 

I'm not one to write off matches, but those 4 games surely yield a maximum of 1 point?

 

We haven't won in 14, we've played all 3 promoted teams and you're talking about closing a 9 point gap. I'm not saying it's impossible but it's not far off.

 

Being honest, regardless of other teams results if we don't beat Burnley we're as good as done. 

 

Tonight is as flat as I've felt since the takeover. With 11 men we'd have strolled to a victory tonight. Norwich are so poor.

 

Add Chealsea away to that also.

[Fantail Breeze]

Just now, PlymouthGeordie said:

 

We still have City and Liverpool to play twice so it's more likely 20 games.

 

I'm not one to write off matches, but those 4 games surely yield a maximum of 1 point?

 

We haven't won in 14, we've played all 3 promoted teams and you're talking about closing a 9 point gap. I'm not saying it's impossible but it's not far off.

 

Being honest, regardless of other teams results if we don't beat Burnley we're as good as done. 

 

Tonight is as flat as I've felt since the takeover. With 11 men we'd have strolled to a victory tonight. Norwich are so poor.

 

Everyone else has to play Liverpool and Man City too.

 

Plus, why couldn’t we get something? Crystal Palace just beat Man City and Brighton got a draw at Anfield. They’re not untouchable.

 

Unlikely, aye. But no game should be written off.

[Superior Acuña]

Just now, Big Geordie said:

 

We haven't won for 14 games - it's probably the club's worst run in it's entire history.

 

And some folk think we will pull a rabbit out of the hat? Deary me.

 

Do you think the 11 of those 14 games that were under Bruce and Jones are representative to be extrapolated from for a strengthened squad under a different manager who's had time for (especially) the last 15 games after January? I don't. 

[LV]

Just now, et tu brute said:

 

And how are they going to do that then?

How can I know the answer to that?

 

But they’ve literally just put rules in place that prevent us getting sponsorship in. You cannot tell me they won’t be able to make up more rules. 
 

Try to tell me they cannot make up more rules. Come at me. 

[Thumbheed]

9.5. 

 

It's not the next game that bothers me, it's the 4 after that which leads into an absolutely critical transfer window. That run just looks impossibly difficult and therefore makes us really unappealing irrespective of cash. 

 

12 points from 19 (if we're lucky) leaves us needing top half form for the remaining 19 games of the season.

 

I just don't see how we can realistically hope to change our form from one that's destined for relegation to the form of a team pushing for Europe. 

 

 

 

 

Edited November 30, 2021 by Thumbheed

[Big Geordie]

Just now, Inferior Acuña said:

 

Do you think the 11 of those 14 games that were under Bruce and Jones are representative to be extrapolated from for a strengthened squad under a different manager who's had time for (especially) the last 15 games after January? I don't. 

 

The last 14 years of the Ashley regime are laid bare for all to see now. The club is rotten and that's going to take time to sort out. Simply hoying a load of cash at it in Jan (buying players who see an easy pay-day in return for no effort) isn't the answer. We will have a better idea of where we are come Jan 1st and if they need to start planning for the championship, then that's what needs to happen.

 

We may have new owners and a new manager, but the club needs fumigating in all areas.

[PlymouthGeordie]

5 minutes ago, Fantail Breeze said:

 

Everyone else has to play Liverpool and Man City too.

 

Plus, why couldn’t we get something? Crystal Palace just beat Man City and Brighton got a draw at Anfield. They’re not untouchable.

 

Unlikely, aye. But no game should be written off.

 

Well Burnley and Southampton have both already played them twice, both are above us and both have games in hand on us.

 

We've had one of the easiest sets of fixtures going and the results are:

 

0 Wins

Most goals conceded

Bottom of the league 

 

It's not defeatism, it's realism. No team in PL history has stayed up from this position. Our chances of survival probably range from 0%-5%.

 

 

Edited November 30, 2021 by PlymouthGeordie

[Pata]

Bookies think it's somewhere between 60% to 63% likelihood that we are relegated and that seems fair. They have to be pretty good at that or they wouldn't be a bookie soon. 

 

The table looks grim right now but even Brentford at 11th and 16 points could still easily get relegated. Bielsa teams usually start well and get tired so Leeds will be in the mix. Crystal Palace or even Brighton, Villa or Everton could get pulled in to the mix and we only have to be ahead of three other teams while Norwich look almost certain to go down. 

[et tu brute]

Just now, LV said:

How can I know the answer to that?

 

But they’ve literally just put rules in place that prevent us getting sponsorship in. You cannot tell me they won’t be able to make up more rules. 
 

Try to tell me they cannot make up more rules. Come at me. 

 

They have not put any rules in yet on the sponsorship and Newcastle are on that group also. If any rules come in that are against competition and restraint of trade, then I'm quite certain Newcastle will take them straight to the courts and win. You can't accept a takeover and then try and stop the club under these owners being allowed back in because of relegation. That boat has long sailed.