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The Relegationometer™ (2023/24)


midds

The Relegationometer™ (2023/24)  

403 members have voted

  1. 1. How likely are we to get relegated this season? 0 = nee chance, 5 = can’t call it, 10 = nailed on marra



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Just realise Burnley play Watford away before Everton play next.

 

Will be psychologically huge if Everton go into that Chelsea game 5 points adrift imo.

 

A Leeds win tomorrow and Burnley next week and I don’t see any way back for Everton. 

 

Leeds and Burnley have too many relatively straightforward games. Even Leeds who have a tough run coming up finish the season against Brighton and Brentford. Both are also on a good run of form.

 

Over the last 25 games, Everton have got 12 points less than Leeds and 13 less than Burnley. They’re below them under every form table (5/10/15/20/25 games). That’s staggeringly shit form - I just don’t see how they could improve so much to overcome that.

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I thought Burnley were done, their PPG was tragic and they looked relegated. You don't want to be starting something with a new manager at this stage in the season, but with Jackson, they mighy beat it. 

 

Today wasn't a thriller, they didn't rock my world, but it wasn't bad and they actually looked dangerous.

 

I know they don't care about us, but we'll remember the time if they relegate Everton and I want their fans to know that you are not alone.

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2 minutes ago, Ketsbaia said:

Leeds are more likely to go down than Burnley imo. Remember thinking a few weeks ago that they'd get out of it.

 

Everton 55%

Burnley 27%

Leeds 18%

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50 minutes ago, midds said:

 

Everton 55%

Burnley 27%

Leeds 18%

 

 

Don't think Leeds are going down. My co-worker is a life long Leeds fan and the fact they have an American leading them makes me partial to them staying up. 

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If Leeds lose away to Palace tomorrow, with their run in, I think those odds will shift.

 

Brentford away is a very tough game given the way they are playing. Which leaves huge pressure on Brighton at home.

 

I'd be looking right over my shoulder if I was a Leeds fan.

 

Then again, we're at the point where one unexpected result for any of those teams can throw the whole thing up in the air. 

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I really like Leeds the city, and don't mind them as a club, and they definitely add something to the PL, so I want them to stay up, and I hope they beat Palace tomorrow, as while I'm not overly fussed where we finish given the main hard work has been accomplished, it would still be nice to finish as high as we can, but given our remaining fixtures, I think we will be relying on the likes of Palace, Brentford, Southampton etc. dropping points as much as us picking them up, so hopefully that's what happens, starting from tomorrow.

 

Maybe it's the pessimist coming out of me, but I think I'd still rather be Everton than Burnley. I get Burnley have the extra points on the board, and that Everton are now the slight faves to go down at the bookies, like 5/6 (Everton) vs 6/4 (Burnley) vs 4/1 (Leeds), but I can see them picking up around 9 points from their final 6 matches, which would mean Burnley would need 7 or 8 (depending on GD) from their last 5.

 

It will likely go down to the final or penultimate match of the season, and those 35/36 points we were seeing prior to the Wolves match look a fair bit lower than what will transpire. I'm just buzzing we're no longer a part of it.

 

 

 

 

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3 hours ago, toontownman said:

Everton remaining fixtures:
Chelsea (h)
Leicester (a)
Watford (a)
Brentford (h)
Palace (h)
Arsenal (a)

 

Burnley Remaining fixtures 
Watford (a)
Villa (h)
Spurs (a)
Villa (a)
Newcastle (h)

 

Can see Everton picking up more point comfortably to be honest. 

Considering how bad Everton are away from home, I'd fancy both teams to get a similar amount of points - this will go to the final day and Leeds could well be involved. TBH it's been a weird season down there. Just as one team starts to look doomed/safe, things seems to change dramatically.

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16 minutes ago, ilikenewcastle said:

Considering how bad Everton are away from home, I'd fancy both teams to get a similar amount of points - this will go to the final day and Leeds could well be involved. TBH it's been a weird season down there. Just as one team starts to look doomed/safe, things seems to change dramatically.

 

Aye, they haven't won away from home in the league since August, they haven't picked up a point away since December :lol:

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6 minutes ago, The Prophet said:

...and then there were four. How many points are we thinking for the remainder of the season? I think we'll get another four.

Did that predictor and have us picking up another seven (dreamland, probably) with wins against Arsenal and Burnley, drawing against Liverpool and losing to City. Would be happy with 4 and would love to secure a 9th-12th place finish. 

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1 point from the next 3, and if Burnley need something on the last day, especially if they are in the driving seat, probably 1 from 4. 4 if they are already down (which they probably won't be). 

 

It would be nice if we continued the momentum, and we can certainly give Arsenal and Liverpool a good game at home, but I'm not too fussed. Obviously 4 straight defeats wouldn't be ideal should that happen, but we've done amazing to get to 43 points. and the dizzy heights of  12th / 13th / 14th would still be fine for where we were just a few months ago.

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3 minutes ago, Shays Given Tim Flowers said:

We're going to be that annoying team with nothing to play for but still 100% professional and up for it. 

 

At the end of every season there are a few that drop off and i guess it's understandable with players not wanting to go into transfer window injured, managers wanting to start preparing for transfers and next season but it means there always a team or two that suddenly leapfrogs everyone into a slightly underserved lofty position. Pretty sure it's basically how we got 5th that year which we weren't really threatening at any point prior in season

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19 minutes ago, Tiresias said:

 

At the end of every season there are a few that drop off and i guess it's understandable with players not wanting to go into transfer window injured, managers wanting to start preparing for transfers and next season but it means there always a team or two that suddenly leapfrogs everyone into a slightly underserved lofty position. Pretty sure it's basically how we got 5th that year which we weren't really threatening at any point prior in season

 

Wasn't sure which one you meant, but the year we finished 5th under Bobby in 2004, we only won one of our last 7 league games. I assume you mean Pards in 2012, but that year we were never below 6th from mid January, and were even 4th with only 4 games to go, but then lost 3 of the last 4, most notably the 4-0 vs Wigan, and then dropped to 5th. Mind, with Chelsea winning the CL, it was probably just as well, because it would have been devastating to have finished 4th and then miss out on the CL, like Spurs did, but we were definitely in big contention for top 4 at the end of the season.

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2011–12_Newcastle_United_F.C._season

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6 minutes ago, HaydnNUFC said:

Are we not mathematically safe now? Burnley and Villa both have to play each other so they both can't get 6 points, doesn't that mean that not all the teams below us can pass us, rendering us safe?

Villa have 6 games left so they could lose the 2 to Burnley but win the other 4

 

So it's not mathematically done yet, probably will be in a couple of games

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7 minutes ago, HaydnNUFC said:

Are we not mathematically safe now? Burnley and Villa both have to play each other so they both can't get 6 points, doesn't that mean that not all the teams below us can pass us, rendering us safe?

Villa are only 6 points behind us so could lose both games to Burnley and still technically get above us….so in answer, we are not yet mathematically safe😀

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