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The TopFourometer™ (2023/24)


Rich

The TopFourometer™ (2023/24)  

605 members have voted

  1. 1. How likely are we to finish top four this season? 0 = nee chance, 5 = can’t call it, 10 = nailed on marra



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The thing to note with fivethirtyeight is how low they are drawing the bar. They have us as fourth with 66 points. This sounds realistic to me, and the takeaway from it should be that we probably only need five wins. 5-4-3 gets us the 19 points to hit 66.

 

Liverpool have three hard games coming up, starting with Man City. If you include the cup semi, Brighton have four in a row in April, Spurs and Chelsea away, the semi, then Man City two days later.

The pressure is only going to crank up and a team having momentum is one way to counter it.

 

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'TopFourometer' is probably not the most appropriate place to post this, but after this weekends results in both the league and FA Cup, I think it's extremely likely that we will be playing some form of European football next season for the first time in over 10 years.

 

I'm personally thinking 6th place, but I reckon we will finish anywhere from 3rd to 7th. I could see Liverpool and/or Brighton passing us, but after our win, and Brentford and Chelsea both dropping points (both from winning positions), I can't really see us finishing below either of them. Chelsea have too many points to make up, and I'm not sure Brentford will be able to sustain their charge and overhaul the gap with their remaining fixtures.

 

With Man Utd, Man City, and Brighton all progressing in the FA Cup, if we were to finish 7th in what would be one of the worst case scenarios, and those 3 finished above us, and one of them went on to win the FA Cup then 7th place should be good enough for Europa Conference, but if Sheff U won it then 6th place would get that and 7th would get nothing, but it's extremely unlikely that Sheff U will beat Man City and either Man U or Brighton in the final (and they would have to win it, as a final is not enough these days).

 

Possibly other factors to consider if Man Utd / Chelsea won their respective European competitions and didn't do enough in the league, but it's hard to see a realistic scenario where passports won't now be required later in 2023.

 

 

 

Edited by Paullow

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I'm fairly confident we'll get 4th personally.

 

Everyone is dropping points here and there, we won't be alone if we do. We have Spurs at home, Brighton at home, Man United at home, Arsenal at home. Most of our difficult fixtures are out of the way. It's simply whether or not we're capable of putting teams to the sword when they sit in against us.

 

 

Edited by Heron

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Presently, we can finish anywhere from 3rd to 11th. Likelihood is we'll finish 4th to 7th. Stating the obvious, but if we defeat ManU, the resulting confidence, coupled with a busier fixture list for most of our rivals, would make a CL finish highly plausible. 

So let's screw the 'biggest football club in the world' and make a real statement of intent.

 

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I think we've put our blip behind us and our players look in a good place, mentally and physically. The pressure on Man U, Liverpool and Spurs is greater and unless we have bad luck with injuries, our squad should be okay. Third place looks possible, in fact. 

 

Apart from Arsenal and Man City, every Premiership club will find it difficult to put a long run of victories together. Everyone's either fighting relegation or chasing a European spot, so there'll be no easy points to pick up.

 

I know our squad doesn't look anything like good enough on paper, but we've been sustaining good results for over a year now. It's no fluke.

 

 

Edited by Cronky

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45 minutes ago, huss9 said:

so what happens if chelsea fluke the champions league?

We’ll have 5 teams in the CL.

 

Still slightly unsure as to whether West Ham winning the Conference League would have any impact on places outside of the CL?

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Only way in which we can finish 4th and not play Champions League is if Chelsea win the Champions League this season AND Manchester United win the Europa League but finish this season outside the top 4. It's possible but both those scenarios happening is very unlikely, Chelsea have got Real Madrid next and even if they got past them they then have the winners of Man City v Bayern.

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Quote

a) If the FA Cup winners finish in the top five of the Premier League, their UEL group stage place will go to the next-highest ranked team not qualified for UEFA competitions in the Premier League.

b) If the EFL Cup winners finish in the top five of the Premier League (or top six if (a) happens), their UECL playoff place will go to the next-highest ranked team not qualified for UEFA competitions in the Premier League.

 

In the event that a Premier League club win the UEFA Champions League and another win the UEFA Europa League and neither of these clubs finish in the top four of the Premier League, the club lying fourth in the table will drop into the UEFA Europa League group stage.

 

If a Premier League club win the UEFA Champions League and another win the UEFA Europa League and neither have qualified for UEFA competitions through their league positions or by winning the FA Cup or EFL Cup, they will qualify for the UEFA Champions League and the club finishing fourth in the table will drop into the UEFA Europa League group stage. 

 

This UEFA Europa League group stage place will be in addition to the one for the club finishing fifth and to the places in the UEFA Europa League and UEFA Europa Conference League for the FA Cup and EFL Cup winners (or for the highest-ranked clubs not qualified for UEFA competitions in the Premier League if the FA Cup and EFL Cup winners have already qualified for UEFA competitions through their league position).

 

 

https://www.premierleague.com/european-qualification-explained

 

 

Edited by HaydnNUFC

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4 hours ago, Optimistic Nut said:

It should go back to the Cup runners up getting the European spot if the winners qualify for the CL or Europe via the league rather than dropping a place in the league imo. 

Disagree should be based on the League.

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38 minutes ago, Optimistic Nut said:

 

I liked it. Gives the smaller club something as a 'consolation' prize. Teams like Millwall getting into Europe after making it to a final was class. 

Yeah but also I want the best teams in it.  Imagine playing well all season to be fucked over cos of a shit draw you got in the cup.

 

Obviously its class if you are the team that qualified and never normally would.

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2 hours ago, Optimistic Nut said:

 

I'd also say getting to the FA Cup Final is a bigger achievement than 7th in the Premier League.

Not sure about that like. Millwall’s route to the final (and therefore Europe) in 2004 was:

 

Walsall

Telford

Burnley

Tranmere 

Sunderland

 

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55 minutes ago, SteV said:

Not sure about that like. Millwall’s route to the final (and therefore Europe) in 2004 was:

 

Walsall

Telford

Burnley

Tranmere 

Sunderland

 

 

That's the game, though. Just think it's a shame that a route into Europe for the underdogs has been blocked for the sake of seeing an Everton, West Ham, Leicester playing their reserves and getting to the last 16.

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3 minutes ago, Optimistic Nut said:

 

That's the game, though. Just think it's a shame that a route into Europe for the underdogs has been blocked for the sake of seeing an Everton, West Ham, Leicester playing their reserves and getting to the last 16.

Millwall got knocked out in the first round and Wigan came bottom of the group when they qualified.

 

Having said that I do take your point about variety. Something the Conference League seems to have been good for providing.

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I'd have no complaints if it went back to cup runners up getting a European spot, and not just because we would've all but secured our route already this season. :aww:

 

I can't explain why but it feels wrong that European spots can drop all the way to 7th in the League. Aren't top coefficient countries going to get a 5th CL spot in future? Is that an extra spot even if an English club wins the CL or EL, meaning we could end up with six clubs in the CL? We could be looking at 9th in the league getting a spot in Europe if everything aligned. Just seems ridiculous.

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33 minutes ago, wormy said:

I'd have no complaints if it went back to cup runners up getting a European spot, and not just because we would've all but secured our route already this season. :aww:

 

I can't explain why but it feels wrong that European spots can drop all the way to 7th in the League. Aren't top coefficient countries going to get a 5th CL spot in future? Is that an extra spot even if an English club wins the CL or EL, meaning we could end up with six clubs in the CL? We could be looking at 9th in the league getting a spot in Europe if everything aligned. Just seems ridiculous.

I don’t think being runner-up in the league cup has ever qualified you, has it?

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