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The TopFourometer™ (2023/24)


Rich

The TopFourometer™ (2023/24)  

605 members have voted

  1. 1. How likely are we to finish top four this season? 0 = nee chance, 5 = can’t call it, 10 = nailed on marra



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16 minutes ago, BonesJones said:

 

Literally anything could happen. Almiron could lose his streak and Willock go on one.

 

Wilson injured, Isak returns and smashes it.

 

The only inevitable is teams bloody sitting back against us!

 

We've got a style/mentality that I just don't see getting beaten over multiple games imo.

You could argue unfortunately that in average this season that teams sitting back against us are the ones coming away with something - Palace in the league (although we were robbed) and took us to penalties in the cup doing it then Bournemouth again in the league and very nearly in the cup.

 

I genuinely think these are the same type of games we sneak a 1 - 0 win with a Wilson goal when he’s playing.

 

 

Edited by Gawalls

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2 minutes ago, Skeletor said:

Finishing top 4 is so important in terms of legitimacy and setting the base to compete at the very top of the table year after year. Never thought it would be happening so soon, but we have such an opportunity now.

Also creates a new revenue stream with Europe meaning we can charge more for for advertising etc and attract players easier - it all snow balls.

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49 minutes ago, Gawalls said:

You could argue unfortunately that in average this season that teams sitting back against us are the ones coming away with something - Palace in the league (although we were robbed) and took us to penalties in the cup doing it then Bournemouth again in the league and very nearly in the cup.

 

I genuinely think these are the same type of games we sneak a 1 - 0 win with a Wilson goal when he’s playing.

 

 

 

 

I am confident that in the January window we'll be looking for a missing piece or 2 that will allow us to punish teams that sit back.

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I'm still unsure of where we'll finish. I suppose it all depends on what we do next month. If we bring in 2 players, 1 first team and 1 young up and coming player to give the team and squad a boost, the top 4 is on.

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49 minutes ago, Mattoon said:

 

I am confident that in the January window we'll be looking for a missing piece or 2 that will allow us to punish teams that sit back.


Exactly this. I think we will look to remedy this in Jan and probably again in the summer.
 

Plus Wilson and ASM were missing for Palace and Bournemouth in the league, from memory. Bruno didn’t play against Palace and was barely fit to play against Bournemouth. Lasted an hour and looked miles off it from the bits I saw.
 

Three massive difference makers hardly featuring. Against teams that sit back and play the ‘low block’. Most teams would struggle with 3 of their best attacking players unavailable. 
 

Also, Isak looked a bit lost in the system, at times in both of those games. Yet we still could have beaten Palace and the disallowed goal was a joke. Bournemouth was a bit shite.

 

Excuses for both cup games, I thought. 

 

 

Edited by Lush Vlad

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On 27/12/2022 at 15:40, Stottie said:

Look at who we have left to play home and away. Especially home.

476347066_nufcresults.jpg.38e9a48d59b658f8d3ca37b1a712a3d8.jpg

Howe's home record in 2022. 

P17 W12 D4 L1 F30 A10 Pts 40

Keep that up and given who we can take points off at home, Top 4 looks likely. 

That’s a neat league table to see how tough the remaining games are. Can I ask for a link to where it is from?

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3 minutes ago, Optimistic Nut said:

That 97th minute goal at Anfield is such a blemish man. 

 

It's mad to think that bullshit is the only thing sitting between us and going in to the new year undefeated in all competitions.

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Yes, the table is from Soccerstats. Click on a club name and that table will come up for them.

 

More fun with stats says that in the 10 game form table, we are top on points, we are top scorers, and we've conceded the fewest, in games that featured Spurs, Man U, and Leicester away and Chelsea home. Soccerstats doesn't do xG, but it also looks like we are top 2 for most xG for and fewest xG against in that 10 game period.

 

Sven Botman is also yet to lose a match for us.

 

In gripe mode, the Palace VAR fiasco denied us two points. Liverpool's winner at Anfield only cost one point.

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Feels to me like Man United and Liverpool are the teams to beat for us?

 

Arsenal or Man City missing out on the top four seems almost impossible.

 

Spurs meanwhile haven't looked great at all this year and Chelsea adding all these players seems great in theory but they're still getting used to how Potter wants to play and are now going to change up the team even more and are already well off the pace. Quite possible one of them makes top four but I'd be surprised at this point.

 

Today and tomorrow figures to be bad for us. We're at Arsenal while Man U host Bournemouth and Liverpool go to Brentford.

 

After that, our next four fixtures are a huge chance for us to make some strides. If we're serious about finishing top four we need to take advantage of that run of fixtures.

 

Home games with Fulham and West Ham and away to Palace and Bournemouth. At least 9 points from that needed IMO, chance there'll be a slip up but what we can't do is draw too many games. Hopefully we'll have Isak back and maybe a signing or two to give us a boost too.

 

Meanwhile Liverpool and Man U both have four tougher fixtures coming up.

 

Man U have trips to Arsenal and Leeds as well as Man City at Old Trafford.

 

Liverpool have to go to Brighton and Wolves and host Chelsea and Everton. All winnable obviously but all challenging fixtures.

 

February 18th could be spicy, Liverpool coming to St James Park. If we are ahead of them when that fixture gets here it should be an immense game.

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If this stays at is, or Liverpool only manage a draw. Then suddenly our result against Leeds doesn’t look so bad. 
 

Hopefully Isak coming back soon and maybe a new player or two this month. Then it’s looking good for the new year. 
 

We do now look light at full back, mind and I’m sure there will be some injuries and suspensions. Which will hurt us more than the other ‘big 6’ squads, I’d say. 
 

Man U are an odd team. Don’t think they’ve looked great most the season whenever I’ve seen them and their goal dif is poor for a team that high in the league. But 5 wins in a row and world class players like Casemiro, Rashford, Martinez, Varane etc all bang in form. They suddenly look like the biggest danger from the chasing pack. 
 

 

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After tomorrow our run of league games is quite favourable. Fulham will be tough given their form but we should be aiming to win the other games up to Bournemouth, then Liverpool at SJP after that. Isak to come back as well, plus whatever we add in this window.

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1 hour ago, Lush Vlad said:

If this stays at is, or Liverpool only manage a draw. Then suddenly our result against Leeds doesn’t look so bad. 
 

Hopefully Isak coming back soon and maybe a new player or two this month. Then it’s looking good for the new year. 
 

We do now look light at full back, mind and I’m sure there will be some injuries and suspensions. Which will hurt us more than the other ‘big 6’ squads, I’d say. 
 

Man U are an odd team. Don’t think they’ve looked great most the season whenever I’ve seen them and their goal dif is poor for a team that high in the league. But 5 wins in a row and world class players like Casemiro, Rashford, Martinez, Varane etc all bang in form. They suddenly look like the biggest danger from the chasing pack. 
 

 

 

They look to me like a team with a very good manager who is increasingly getting them to play more and more like he wants them to.

 

Think Ten Haag will be a success there, seems to know what he's doing unfortunately.

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Soon find out, I guess. But didn’t they look superb under OGS for a while? Went on some mad away winning/unbeaten run. Seems a bit early to be getting too carried away about them. As I still don’t think they look impressive whenever I see them.  
 

Obviously Ten Hag is much more of a tactician than him and I’m sure it is more that he is now making his mark on the team. But even against Wolves, I thought they looked bang average. Rashford the difference maker and Man U obviously helped by the fact Wolves are allergic to scoring. 

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4 points ahead of Spurs and 6 ahead of Liverpool plus the goal difference. Looking at our remaining fixtures we've got all the top 6 except City at home and most of our away games against the mid/lower table teams.

 

All things considered, it looks like a fantastic second half of the season.

 

It will go down to those games at home against the big 6. I had us down to finish 8th at start of season and to think 6th or 7th now looks like worst case scenario. What a season!

 

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Far too early for me to be examining the league table so far to go before Chelsea away last game. I’ll check back into this thread end of April 🙂

 

We can finish top 4 if we beat 3 of Arsenal, Man Utd, Liverpool and Spurs at home. Possible. Especially with 2 astute signings in midfield and up front. Tough last month of season though. Hoping for lots of draws between the teams mentioned.
 

It’s going to be a hell of a ride hopefully 🙂

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