Cronky

City's best hope was always to argue that the rules were illegal, rather than that they abided by the rules. At least this shows that they're not that confident.

I know we might benefit, but I see this as bad news. There needs to be some sort of regulation, even if the current rules need a bit of adjustment. City's action is horribly divisive, and in any case, I don't think I want to succeed through City's methods.

7 minutes ago, WilliamPS said:

Is there reason to believe his injury will recur rather than just being bad luck?

Shoulder dislocations are notorious for their susceptibility. I'd say it's a probability rather than a possibility.

We do have a problem with Pope, because his shoulder is vulnerable now, and we can't rely on his fitness. 

From what I've seen of Trafford, he's good enough to step in if Pope is out. He has Premiership experience and from what I've seen he looks like a confident, strong-minded lad. Pope has his weaknesses, and Trafford certainly has the potential to take over as number 1. 

When is the unknown, but in the position we're in, we have to take one or two considered gambles. We can't yet compete for the established stars.

10 minutes ago, Thumbheed said:

A DM would make a difference, the CBs pushing up more could make a difference but in order for the latter to happen we need more quality on the ball when we're in the opponents half and that to me comes down to having better CM's. 

 

 

Given the balance of the side, I think Bruno's continued presence in that anchor role is essential.

I think we need an upgrade on Longstaff and/or Willock. Anderson may prove to be better than either, but I'm still not sure. As for Tonali, we'll have to wait and see. 

19 minutes ago, Skeletor said:

 

You mean constant chaos, dying fan base, constant mangerial change, and an owner who doesn't understand football weren't enough?

Chelsea have a recent record of success (ie within the last 10 years) and will have offered more money. I struggle to think of a player that, given a similar choice, has opted for the alternative.

All you say may be right, but any player that has reached that level is probably an optimist by nature, and will believe that they will be one of the ones that survive and flourish in that environment. 

Disappointing, but not surprising. I think we've yet to win a transfer battle against one of the big six. You can be sure that Chelsea will have offered significantly more money.

One of the most disappointing signings that I can remember. He never looked up for it.

When we lost the home game to Milan and went out of Europe altogether, Jenas said something to the effect of 'Believe me, the players won't be disappointed to have missed out on the Europa League'. It was said with the air of a professional finally coming clean about something. Maybe he was just referring to the difficulty of motivating yourself for the minor competition when you've been knocked out of the major one, but maybe it's something else.

No player or manager is going to say that they're glad to have missed out on the pleasures of long distance travelling to the far corners of Europe, because supporters value these competitions. But my ever-strengthening hunch is that for many on the footballing side, the Europa League is a gig they actually don't mind missing. Footballers are notoriously bad travellers, and it's only the glory of the Champions League that really compensates.

On 26/05/2024 at 11:34, Cronky said:

 

Winning silverware is very difficult now. Even the cups are being dominated by the big six. The two minor European trophies are probably the easiest, because the best teams aren't involved. 

 

I think Howe will continue to exceed all realistic expectations, but winning something will depend on good recruitment and that bit of luck. He shouldn't be measured on trophies alone.

Just to re-inforce the point, I've looked at the last 10 years.

Of the three domestic trophies, 28 of the last 30 winners have come from the big six. The exception was Leicester, with the Premiership and FA Cup. 

Of the three European trophies for the same period, only West Ham from outside the big six, with last year's conference, have won anything.

It's tough.

Didn't see the whole game, but what struck me was the difference between Premiership and Championship football. 

16 minutes ago, Tiotes Witch Doctor said:

 

This isn't Howe out, it's Howe needs to deliver silverware, particularly if he's well backed in the next few windows.

Winning silverware is very difficult now. Even the cups are being dominated by the big six. The two minor European trophies are probably the easiest, because the best teams aren't involved. 

I think Howe will continue to exceed all realistic expectations, but winning something will depend on good recruitment and that bit of luck. He shouldn't be measured on trophies alone.

The reason we didn't do so well this season wasn't because we 'weren't used' to European football and the extra games. We simply didn't have the squad, and when injuries hit us badly, we were having to play the same eleven for 90+ minutes and that inevitably put us at a disadvantage generally. 

European football makes extra demands which can badly effect form in other areas. That's the experience of many clubs, not just ours. You need strength in depth - big time.

I've made this point before, but I'm not sure how many of our squad, or how many of our potential signings, are that motivated by the thought of playing in Europe's third tier competition, or even the Europa League. When there was one club per country in the European Cup, the other competitions had some standing. Now that all the best teams are in the Champions League, it dwarfs the others. 

We'll see how it pans out, but we haven't exactly missed by a mile, and any player who's considering joining us will at least see that our prospects continue to be good.

45 minutes ago, Coffee_Johnny said:

That sounds way more serious than Tonali case. If found guilty, guess it is harder to prove, but wonder what the sanctions could be. Is it a criminal offence? 

 

 

 

If you get a season's ban for betting on matches other than your own, then anything is possible. 

In the sixties, some players got prison sentences and a lifetime ban for fixing matches. This isn't quite the same, but there has to be a severe deterrent - five season ban?

I think he'll give us another season, and then take stock.

DCL is a gamble, but if we're going to bridge that gap between ourselves and the big six, we do have to take one or two gambles.

Eddie has made a success of signing talented players whose careers have stalled (eg Gordon, Isak), so perhaps this is another one.

When fit (I know), he's very good. Practically unbeatable in the air.

From reading the BBC report, there seem to be lots of people with their hands on the tiller at Chelsea, not just Boehly. 

This is the sort of thing that happens when it's unclear who's in charge.

1 hour ago, Optimistic Nut said:

 

Using this argument then, what's a more likely chance to score. A 30-yard daisy cutter that rolls straight to the keeper, or a chance like Joelinton's yesterday?

 

 

 

With respect, that's false logic. The stat works because a shot on target is a statistical indication of a good scoring chance. A shot off target is an indication of a poorer chance. The whole picture is that it's not so much the number of chances as a whole that a team creates, but the number of good chances. 

You might get a naive manager who looks at the 'shot on target' stat and decides to instruct his players to hit the ball towards the opposition goal from all areas of the field. It wouldn't work because those situations do not represent 'good chances'. 

What makes football results hard to predict is that a team with a lot of possession who is trying to break down a packed defence might not get its due reward because of the value of a counter attack. A team is more likely to score when it's 2 on 2 rather than 9 on 9. 

There was a period - I think it was the 80s - when someone (Charles Hughes?) produced a stat that supposedly showed that the fewer the number of passes at team made in an attack, the more likely they were to score. This persuaded some teams to just hoof the ball forward rather aimlessly, no matter what the situation. I think the 'fewer passes' stat was just an indication of the relative potency of the counter-attack.

7 hours ago, Pata said:

Absolutely mad looking table in expected points considering the circumstances, finished fourth ahead of Chelsea. N-O darling Emery 10 points behind, media darling Ange 8 points behind. Not even going to mention Erik the fraud, hope he gets another season. Eddie is a magician.

 

Lies, damned lies and statistics. More than anything, for me, this calls into question the value of this concept of 'expected goals', or how it's calculated.

Man U on 44 points, us 8 points ahead of Spurs and 10 in front of Villa? 

The best stat that I've come across for predicting results is 'shots on target'. 

2 hours ago, Ronaldo said:

He’s 31 this year, just been relegated and a totally different type of player to Bruno. 

 

I’m not your nemesis. I think you’re brilliant. You just come out with outrageousness - but I mostly appreciate it these days.

Aw shucks..... 

(Or maybe he's just messing with my mind.....  )

1 minute ago, Ronaldo said:

To play where? 

Greetings, my old nemesis.

I could see him as a good addition to the squad, able to give Bruno a rest towards the end of games, or in European matches. 

I'd assume it's too late to restore him to his old state of fitness, but Eddie has a way of breathing new life into careers that have stalled. This would be a huge challenge, but with big potential rewards.

I've come across a rumour that we're interested in Ross Barkley.

An extremely gifted player whose career went south for some reason. If Eddie can get to work on him, it might well be a great signing.

I don't think we can rely on Pope as our regular number one any more. He's injured the same shoulder twice. 

Besides, although he's a good shot-stopper, he doesn't command his area well and he's poor with the ball at his feet. I think Ramsdale is the better package, if he can get his confidence back - and Eddie is rather good at helping players in that area.

We've also been linked with the Valencia keeper, but there may be something to be said for going British. We may be starting with a very new back four of Tino-Schar-Tosin-Hall and communication and the forging of trust may be at a premium.

£15m for Ramsdale just sounds like an opening bid. We're likely to have to pay nearly twice that. And I'm still conscious that the big six have yet to sell us a player (apart from that young lad from City, where I don't think they had much choice)

We've made a success of picking up talented players whose careers have taken a dip. Ramsdale could be another one.

13 hours ago, HaydnNUFC said:

 

After having 6th in our hands for a while now being out of any sort of Europe next season feels like a bit of a failure to me. Maybe harsh given the assortment of problems we've had across this season but that's how I feel at this current moment in time.

 

This version of NUFC have to consistently play European football of some form imo, to raise the profile of the club, attract players, keep hold of our best players. Not achieving that given our position as recent as last week feels like a step back. And I don't even think missing out is a positive. Howe, the squad; bloody hell the club as a whole and I'm including the supporters in that need to get used to us playing 3 games a week at a decent level if we want to compete with the elite teams in this league. Congestion of fixtures has been labelled an obstacle of ours this season; successful/elite clubs play the most matches regularly. And the Conference League (as much as I wanted Europa League) is perfect for getting used to and learning how to manage a squad for minutes and fitness. What's to say we miss our on Europe altogether this season, we finish 4th or 3rd next season, that 2025-26 isn't a carbon copy of this? Probably a reach, but how I feel.

Even if we have better luck with injuries, I don't think our squad is strong enough to deal with that sort of workload successfully. Particularly when you consider how travel time in Europe eats into the availability for training and indeed appropriate rest.

The example of Villa gets cited, but in terms of their individual players, I think both their first team and their squad is that bit better than ours. Eddie is continuing to get more from our players than we have a right to expect.

It looks like we may miss out altogether now. The team has a patched up look about it and I think we'll struggle at Brentford.

The only thing that would bother me about missing out on the Europa League or Conference would be the possibility that it might deter some players from staying or coming. However, I do wonder how big a consideration these competitions are for most top players. The Champions League is a different matter of course. 

The toll that the extra fixtures and travelling take on players is there for all to see, and I'm not sure if, in their heart of hearts, managers and players are all that keen on participating in it, no matter what they might say for the cameras.