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polpolpol

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    The 2010-2011 Betting Thread - forum gamble fails, Ash's fault.

    in Football

    Posted

    I've put 70 € on Lena (Germany) to win the ESC again this year. Returns 840€.

     

    I think she's fallen for a 'second song' syndrome, its a bit slow and complicated for the Eurovision cheesefest (trying to prove she is an artist in the wrong competition), plus there are plenty of other 'heritage' or famous acts in this year, so name recognition might not be worth too much. Still, it looks wide open this year. The 'likely' contenders are all from unpopular nations or are way over-rated. I'll be amazed if France (favs.) win, they make UK look like it has friends in Europe. 

    The 2010-2011 Betting Thread - forum gamble fails, Ash's fault.

    in Football

    Posted

    Man City to win big, and Silva, Toure, Johnstone to score anytime.

     

    plus:

    Norway in the Eurovision 1. Semi to win and top 3, top 3 in the final.

    Switzerland top 3 in 1. semi.

    Armenia top 3 in the 1. semi.

    covered with Hungary to win the 1. semi

     

    (The Norwegian song sounds a bit like the World Cup theme, which is still crazily, inexplicably popular in the backwards parts of the continent (to my mind: most of it, particularly the parts which take Eurovision seriously). 

    The 2010-2011 Betting Thread - forum gamble fails, Ash's fault.

    in Football

    Posted

    Done a live bet of 30 € on FSV Frankfurt/draw. 1-1 at the moment. Returns 66€.

     

    Was it yourself David that dabbles in a little betting on cycling? I seem to remember someone doing some throughout Le Tour last year. If so, looked at the Giro much?

     

    I've gone for Joaquim Rodriguez @ 35 and top 3 @ 7. He's got a bit of form, and can get up the mountains as well as anyone, has his team working for him and some decent domestiques . However, as the route is so hard, and Contador such a favourite, I haven't done too much. I'm hoping the w/o Contador market will start offering some decent prices soon.

     

    The best bets will be in play/the night before on some of the saw-tooth pattern intermediate stages where breaks will go away, and former GC contenders who have cracked and lost time so they're allowed to go for stages.

     

     

    The 2010-2011 Betting Thread - forum gamble fails, Ash's fault.

    in Football

    Posted

    Accidental win from Boro scoring 3, so have gone for rash re-gambling.

     

    Norwich or Portsmouth to get 3 by halftime. The pressure's off now and Norwich have to chose between domination or choking.  £10 @ 17-1.

     

    plus £5 on

    Portsmouth - Norwich score any unquoted

    Lazio - Juve over 3.5 goals

    Espanyol - Bilbao over 3.5 goals

    Can't remeber - Augsburg over 2.5 goals

    fourfold@40-1

    The other games today - 2010/11

    in Football

    Posted

    I think Mourinho is right; if you look at what he's saying, it's not a case of some big boss in UEFA/FIFA giving the order that Barca win, its just that over time the system is acquiring a bias in their favour. The problem is that the narrative of Barca as the 'good guys' of world football is so strong – and becoming stronger – that it has become an independent actor in itself, mediating our understanding of the event and re-territorialising it within the accepted order of things, even when, as last night, what actually happens exceeds (or falls way short of) our pre-conceptions. 

     

    The world's football media is in Madrid, and having spent a week hyping up the Classico of all Classicos, not to mention just signing the new TV deals, self interest and laziness will mix together and lead to the easiest, quickest analysis of this whole farce: a kind of 'he-said, he-said' about Mourinho. Rather than point out that the emperor has no clothes, or comment on the absolute shamelessness of the Spanish about cheating, we get this easy-to-package story about Mourinho losing it, his team losing it. And this just goes into establishing the mythos, deepening the characterisations, confirming the narrative, and when it comes round to next year, the referees will side with the same guys. When you're constantly told that one team are the avatars of Franco's mercenary-Jacobin-crypto-fascismo and then it's pitted against the UNICEF-Angels of Freedom, of course the ref is going one way on marginal calls. 

    Arsene Wenger

    in Football

    Posted

    :lol: :lol: :lol:

     

    That Zonal Marking has a lot to answer for.

     

    "Hyperstitionally problematic reputation" ffs. "Stick with the forwards, they're pretty good."

     

    :lol:

     

    I take exception to that. There's at least as much of The Run of Play's belief that football is narrative rather than event in my diatribes as of ZM's dots on green.

    Arsene Wenger

    in Football

    Posted

    The current Arsenal team is the answer to a specific question: how can you break down a team that puts players behind the ball and plays as deeply as possible? This was necessitated by the failure of the counter-attacking 442 they previously played to get through teams which never committed numbers of players forward when attacking.

     

    The problem is that they haven't quite found the answer to that problem. The current way they play reminds me of the worlds most popular formation, the 2-5-3. The most popular formation, that is, in terms of table-football. The way they advance down the pitch is incredibly inflexible, especially with the 5 players in the middle who have a tendency to stand in a plane across the pitch from the position of the ball carrier. This is much worse when the ball is brought forward down the left. At least when Walcott plays there is still some quick movement down the right to counter-attack.

     

    The consequence of this style of play is that the arsenal midfield and full-backs never try to get past the midfield line of the opposition (shit mspaint picture provided below), leaving just the three front players to run the channels in a very congested area of the pitch.

     

    http://img821.imageshack.us/img821/4558/arsenalxg.jpg

     

    There are a few consequences of this:

     

    The most glaring problem is in the full back area. The full-back's habit of remaining square of the ball (especially Clichy) rather than going ahead of it slows down attacks and pushes the ball across the defence rather than behind it, but most crucially it allows the opponent's defence to remain positionally rigid. One of the main roles of the attacking fullback is to push the fulcrum of the attack to the extremities of the pitch, either pushing towards the byline of being available for a switch of the side of play. The defence is disorganised when it has to adapt to the new attacking disposition, and gaps could be exploited by the kind of ball carrying / channel running players Arsenal have. When this ceases to be a utilised option the defence can retain an optimum state of organisation an penetrating it, once fixed, becomes rather difficult.

     

    The midfield three also become static, standing to the side of the ball carrying player. Shifting the ball amongst themselves does little to advance the the attack, and the tendency is to try a through ball,often at inopportune moments. The 'best' Arsenal midfielder at the moment, in terms of looking creative, is Diaby, because he is willing to try and run past opponents, though he is the least composed player they have when in possession.

     

    The attacking triumvirate become predictable, each revering to a 'default' reliance on their own particular skill set i.e. Arshavin to 'street football', Van Persie to shifting the ball sideways and shooting etc.

     

    The centre backs, isolated behind play, become exposed to counter attacks once the flat line of 5 across the centre of the pitch is penetrated. This leads to them having to make risky decisions when overloaded and has established the hyperstitionally problematic reputation as being error prone (the Arsenal defence reminds me of the Aberlardo and Nadal at millennial Barcelona). 

     

    The solution to the impasse Arsenal seem to have found is difficult to pin down to one factor, but the thing they have to get back is a bit of dynamism when in possession, and a bit of unpredictability. I'd say: 1) forget the goalkeeping mistakes, which are a real red-herring. The keeper of a top team is just a machine for distributing the ball quickly and accurately. Take 5 mistakes a year on the chin, a good keeper will set up tens of goals in that period. 2) Get some attacking instincts in the full backs, have them go past players and commit themselves. Eboue is better than Sagna for this reason. Clichy is way too conservative. 3) Rake the midfield a bit, have them shift the ball more up-down than left-right, have someone run from deep. 4) Stick with the forwards, they're pretty good. 

    The 2010-2011 Betting Thread - forum gamble fails, Ash's fault.

    in Football

    Posted

    There's something about Chelsea, no matter how often they disappoint, I still have that feeling that they could just revert back to their early season form if they get an early goal. Man U were woeful against West Ham as well, the lucky and/or cheating pricks, Chelsea have to have a chance. 16-1 as well, I like those odds.

     

    edit: Usually what happens in these situations is that the other team than that I thought would win score 4 goals, and the bet is good.

    The 2010-2011 Betting Thread - forum gamble fails, Ash's fault.

    in Football

    Posted

    Cancellara is better than evens to win the Tour Of Flanders on Sunday. It's as close to a certainty as there will ever be in a 200 man bike race. Ballan for top 3.

     

    Saw this, but he's such a hot favourite and blew everyone away last weekend the whole bunch will be against him trying to make it as hard as possible for him.

     

    The odds for Cancelarra are very bad, though, Everything can happen in cycling - crashes, wind, punctures, fatigue...

     

    Considering he's 6/6 over cobbled classics/semi classics (last 2 Flanders, Roubaix and Gent-Wevelgem) better than evens is quite good. Going to have a bit on Guesdon, De Gendt and Chavannel in case a break goes down the road. Ballan to place. He'll be happy as best loser.

     

    Anyone put much on this?

     

    Had £100 on him @ 2.5, laid 150 off @ 1.3 when BMC started chasing. Had £5 on Chavanel @ 50 too, Nuyens' little swerve into his path at the end made me furious, the win would have been much better if Cancellara or S.C. had taken 1st.

     

    Going to be back on him for Roubaix next weekend.

     

    Have shoved £20 of the win on: Benfica 1 - 3 Porto

    The 2010-2011 Betting Thread - forum gamble fails, Ash's fault.

    in Football

    Posted

    Cancellara is better than evens to win the Tour Of Flanders on Sunday. It's as close to a certainty as there will ever be in a 200 man bike race. Ballan for top 3.

     

    Saw this, but he's such a hot favourite and blew everyone away last weekend the whole bunch will be against him trying to make it as hard as possible for him.

     

    The odds for Cancelarra are very bad, though, Everything can happen in cycling - crashes, wind, punctures, fatigue...

     

    Considering he's 6/6 over cobbled classics/semi classics (last 2 Flanders, Roubaix and Gent-Wevelgem) better than evens is quite good. Going to have a bit on Guesdon, De Gendt and Chavannel in case a break goes down the road. Ballan to place. He'll be happy as best loser.

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