bealios

 

The club is in the worst predicament that it has been in for many, many years, and the reason for that is down to the quality of players brought in, and putting that against those who have left, it may be about to get a lot worse.

 

 

Disagree with this slightly.

 

This might be the season I have feared relegation the most since we were promoted in 1993, moreso than last season, and regardless of what happens I don't think that will change until May. So the first team may be in the worst predicament for many a year.

 

BUT ... as a CLUB there are a lot of things in the background which have improved. I think it's generally acknowledged that for the first time perhaps ever we have a decent Academy set up do we? , and a proper youth recruitment policy. We have no bank debt and you know this for sure, if we havent why the recluctance to spend any money or even the money of the sale of milner?, which is a massive positive in the current banking market.

 

Relegation this year would be a disaster, but if the unthinkable does happen, we are better placed to handle it than if it had happened a couple of years ago.

 

 

 

 

 

 

In response:

1. Our Under 18 team are top of the league, unbeaten in 11 games. We look to be scouting worldwide, and actually signing young promising players from around the world to supplement the Academy kids. I can't remember this happening to the same extent 5 years ago, but may be wrong.

2. The club has issued many public statements saying the bank debt has been cleared. This doesn't mean there is no debt, its just that its owed to Mike Ashley. What this means is that we're immune to some extent from the "credit crunch" i.e. the ability to obtain finance to run the business at reasonable rates.

3. The Milner money was received at the end of the window. Its not a case of just spunking cash on anyone, they have to be the right players, and they need to want to come here. In the past we have had to offer massive fees and massive wages to players to move to Newcastle, and it seems that that way of running a club is gone. Now we're offering sensible wages, which hopefully means that the players we get are a little less mercenary. However if its clear that we lose a player in this window who does want to play for NUFC simply because we're quibbling over a million pounds, given what is at stake I take your point.

 

The club is in the worst predicament that it has been in for many, many years, and the reason for that is down to the quality of players brought in, and putting that against those who have left, it may be about to get a lot worse.

 

Disagree with this slightly.

This might be the season I have feared relegation the most since we were promoted in 1993, moreso than last season, and regardless of what happens I don't think that will change until May. So the first team may be in the worst predicament for many a year.

BUT ... as a CLUB there are a lot of things in the background which have improved. I think it's generally acknowledged that for the first time perhaps ever we have a decent Academy set up, and a proper youth recruitment policy. We have no bank debt, which is a massive positive in the current banking market.

Relegation this year would be a disaster, but if the unthinkable does happen, we are better placed to handle it than if it had happened a couple of years ago.

Kinnear will always have a place in my heart, for coming to us when nobody wanted us - like a not so attractive lady who takes you home after you've rolled out of a club at 3am covered in beer and sick.

BUT I would not marry that lady. I would leave very quickly as soon as I could. And I wouldn't leave a number.

I've tried to give the benefit of the doubt so far.

As has been mentioned before I'm not sure many people on here realise what a big deal removing the bank debt was. Not just the £8m or so it was costing per year, but the fact that when the facility came to be renewed, it would need to be renewed in the current banking market - pretty fucking difficult without paying sky high interest rates. Not exaggarating, it could have killed the club - not necessarily administration, but certainly a fire sale of players.

Behind the scenes the Academy has been improved, and we are finally starting to see a proper youth recruitment policy. The long term prospects of the club seems to be in good hands. Ironically isn't this the area Dennis Wise is officially in charge of?

BUT

There needs to be a balance struck between behind the scenes club survival and long term prospects, and the current first team performance, and this is were it has recently gone wrong. We're crying out for full backs, we will go down if we don't sign any in this window in my opinion. And I hope talk of giving Kinnear an extended contract is bullshit. As this window progresses I'm starting to lose a bit of faith.

If Ashley can give JFK a chance to fight of relegation with a few players in this window, and then appoints a coach in the summer who is used to and can work under the continental regime then I will recover a bit of faith in the fact that the club is being run properly.

40 points, assuming we have a good home run towards the end.

I'm more worried now than I was at any point last season. Especially with Kinnear comments that he might cancel his quest for full backs on loan and just spunk all the cash on another central midfielder. Great.

Get in - Nugent goal, Spuds losing 1 - 0

Hmmmm, offering a contract without knowing for certain which league we are in next year? Sounds a bit bollocks to me. How can they offer a lucrative contract if the possibility of Championship football is on the horizon?

I imagine it is something that has been said to (a) placate Joe, and (b) make a statement to the players that Kinnear may actually be here long term, so they had better not slack off. Might be to avoid the situation where players stop playing for a manager who is leaving at the end of the season.

Hopefully.

A right back and a left back. Simple as.

I've haven't checked the stats, but the games (or halves) I recall seeing where we have been dreadful have been where we have not had two proper full backs playing in the correct positions. Stoke second half being an example, or any game where Charlie N'Zogbia has played at left back.

You cannot overestimate the importance of these positions. Without full backs with proper abilities and positioning sense it throws the whole defensive unit out. It also affects the left and right midfielder as they're not sure what they should be doing. This then focuses play down the middle, or leaves the long ball to the front man. Some teams can get away with this - but where we have (a) a slow uncreative central midfield duo, and (b) no big holding man up front, this is completely pointless.

Get some decent full back/cover then watch us rise up the league. After that, someone in CM. Why haven't we gone for Jimmy Bullard- class creative player with great attitutude, puts in good performances with the non-glamorous clubs.

I'm aware of his goals/games ratio, I'm aware he's a good guy and I'm aware he's not at fault for his injuries, BUT I won't regret it the slightest when Owen finally leaves in the summer.. He's a luxury that we can't afford and his time here will remain in history as a failure, both for him and the club.. I'm not confident we can replace him with a better goalscorer, but to hell with it

 

Almost agree with the sentiment, but I think his performances he kept us up last season, and we should at least give thanks for that.

Since the owner is not changing, he needs to bring in a football-minded competant Chairman.

 

Survive this season, then get in a permanent manager with a proven track record and who is willing to work with the recruitment system without throwing his toys out of the pram at every disagreement.

 

Get back on track what Ashley was trying to build before the Keegan debacle.

 

It would also be nice if the fans could stop being so reactionary and focussed on the short term, and stop abusing their own players, but that's unlikely to happen.

A calmer version of my rant.

I think Houlier or Deschamps would be perfect for the job - you would like to think both have an extensive network of European contacts, and are names that young players will identify with and want to play for - like Keegan was the first time around.

I'm a huge fan of Keegan, and think the key reason why we as a club can sit mid-table in the most competitive league in the world and still think the world is ending, is because of the magic and expectation his efforts created first time around. However not appointing either of the two names mentioned above (I believe both were tentatively interested) and opting for Keegan was an emotional decision, and has led to the current mess.

A huge topic with many solutions - mine are ;-

 

1. A takeover by someone who is REALLY interested and will devote 100% to the club's future

 

2.A new, permanent manager who is fairly young and keen to build a CLUB, not just a team.This means involvement in Reserves, Juniors, Academy development ; everything on the playing side...in fact, like SAF who arrives at OT around 7.30 - 8 am most days and deals with all outstanding managerial paperwork etc., the goes on to training, watches Juniors etc etc.

 

3. Constant development of coaching side via a/m manager so that a system of progression occurs like Shankly had at Liverpool

 

4.TOP CLASS medical staff and facilities

 

5.TOP CLASS Scouting system both at home and abroad

 

6. A general 'family feel' to ALL who work at the club from juniors and Tea-lady right through to Chairman & Directors ; a house divided against itself cannot stand.....

 

7.Enough finance to make SENSIBLE buys at the top level when the club achieves stability.

 

 

These are the basic needs, and we have NONE of them right now...

If Carling made football clubs.....

In seriousness I'm sure that is what we would all want, even more than a zillionairre owner, but that does take time and patience. Whose to say Allardyce wasn't planning along those lines behind the scenes, but had to balance that with the short term reality of getting results so tried to do it the way that had worked at Bolton in the short term?

KNEEJERK!!!!

We played well first half, had more chances overall, and fell to a goal against the run of play. If Owen hadn't had an off day then we would be looking forward to Millwall. Shit happens.

This thread is a perfect illustration of ONE of the current problems this club has. The general feel is to change everything because the club is in a bit of a state right now. But nobody has mentioned the one thing that has been constant since Keegan left the first time (as manager) - a large section of our fans with massive expectations.

And before anyone says that we would be happy for a couple of season of mid-table consolidation, then start to look at Europe, that's complete bollocks. We sacked Allardyce when we were bloody 11th! We had those two "you don't know what you're doing" muppets gurning for the cameras. What type of message does that send to prospective players? We walked out on SBR because he finished 5th. 5th!!!!

Why do players opt for clubs like Portsmouth, Spurs, Villa etc. instead of us? So we get what's left, unless we get lucky and unearth some new unheard of talent - which until the start of this season didn't really happen. So we sign Colocinni, Guitterez, Bassong, Guthrie, all looking like decent players and save for Colocinni at very little cost, and what happens? The fans call for the team that did those deals to be sacked!!!

We are a club of contradiction. Previous regimes are criticised for changing managers during a season, the argument being that no manager worth anything is going to be in a position to change clubs mid-season. Quite right, a properly run club should privately make the decision during the year, and then work behind the scenes to make sure the right man is in a position to come in on June 1st. However some on here are saying that Kinnear should be replaced now. With who. Jose fucking Mourinho?

Souness may have been a complete cock end, but his quote about there being about 30,000 NUFC supporters and 20,000 customers is spot on. We all sit next to those idiots at the match who want players to fail so they can have their moan at someone.

So a realistic answer to the original question:

1. Keep Kinnear to the end of the season. Fans stick behind the team, and STOP BOOING YOUR OWN FUCKING PLAYERS DURING THE GAME! Hope to fucking god we don't create an atmosphere of fear at home games, sure sign of a team going down.

2. Those fans who say they are finished with the club, or who want us to go down FUCK OFF AND DON'T COME BACK. I know there are exceptions, but I expect many of these are post 1992 fans. I say this because things have been a hell of a lot worse before then.

3. In the current climate Ashley is going nowhere. His £20m net cash spend per annum sounds good to me in the short/medium term. Its more than 90% of the clubs in the league get, and we have the advantage of generating more income due to supporter base, and lack of interest payments (no debt remember).

4. Board work behind the scenes (starting from now, not May) and get a half decent realistic manager - Houlier, Deschamps etc.

5. We start preparing now for the next window - make sure on 1 July we hit the ground running with player acquisitions, having asked the prospective manager before his appointment to provide a list of targets.

6. Clear out as much high earning dead wood as possible - Butt, Smith, Viduka.

Sorry for the rant, but if the manager, players, board, personell, physio, tea lady, programme sellers all need to take the blame for the current predicament, then I though I would balance the argument out by raising the possibility that as fans we may be less than perfect.

Regarding the closed shop argument, if this was a risk then I'm sure the fact that FIFA/UEFA would like it applied across all of Europe would negate this.

I think the argument that it would ruin the league is just scaremongering by those who would seek to lose out. The cap would be pitched at an appropriate level annually adjusted so that successful sides could pay top rates for star players. However, what it would stop would be the policy of clubs like Chelsea and Manchester United buying effectively almost 3 separate teams which could compete against the rest of the league.

There have been examples in the past where players have turned down first team opportunities at decent Premier League clubs to go and sit in the reserves at Chelsea/Man Utd. If the wages available to non-first team regulars was effectively limited buy the fact that the first team ate up most of the cap, then I'm sure that the likes of Steve Sidwell, Ben Haim, Carlos Tevez and even Theo Walcott in the early years at Arsenal would have thought twice about going to sit on the bench at the "Big Four". End result - they go to the rest of the league and it becomes more competitive.

Eu regulations promote free movement of workers around the EU. Effectively at the moment many players don't have this as only English clubs can pay what has become the going rate. A salary cap would actually prmote the goals of EU legislation.

 

If the Arabs had bought us, we'd all be dreaming of signing Kaka and saying that if it's our only chance to get back into European football then why should we not do it.

 

Football has already been ruined by mega bucks.

Would we? I've seen first hand what its done to Chelsea. No atmosphere at games, long term fans being forced out and replaced by tourists and corporate seats, going to the match expecting a 4 - 0 win every week and by definition most home matches being a big let down? Knowing that any trophy you do get will be devalued because not only do you get stick off other fans, you know in your heart that you "cheated"?

What would honestly give you more satisfaction - a Champions League win financed by a multi multi billionairre owner with ridiculous signings such as Kaka for £100m and £250,000 a week, or scraping a League Cup or god forbid FA Cup win with the current squad?

I agree that football has been ruined by the influx of foreign owners. I've said for ages the answer is a total salary cap for each club's registered first team squad of say 35 players. I don't even think its contrary to any EU regulations.

So basically the man makes a statement about taking the club forward and then proceeds to piss off and sell the only half-decent players we have remaining and we're supposed to keep quiet, bend over and take it because we're afraid of what the alternatives are.

 

How has Ashley pissed off the only half decent players we have left at the club?

Does anyone think Owen is leaving because of something Mike Ashley has said or done, or is it because he feels his career has gone backwards after signing for NUFC (including the two years under Shepherd)? Given may leave, but again that is a result of the 10 years of being generally shite. Its not as if Owen and Given (or N'Zogbia) were happy with life before Ashley turned up, and then all of a sudden they wanted out.

I can't wait for Blackburn away now.

 

Same.  It was already my favourite away match to go to.

You could just go to Blyth at home in the FA Cup 3rd round - one of Big Sams first few games in charge!!!

I'm not sure what all the conspiracy theories are about, all of this makes perfect sense.

Any buyer looking at the club now would need to factor in the risk of relegation. In simple terms, if the club was worth £100m less if relegated at the end of the season, and there is a 40% risk of that happening, a discount of £40m would be applied to any offer. In real terms, buyers are more prudent, and the discount to value would likely be a lot more. I also think relegation would have a larger impact than £100m on the club - think Leeds.

So any offer now will be well below £200m - no bidder would ever make an offer which didn't factor in the risk of relegation given NUFC's current state.

However, if you wait until the end of the season, and NUFC survive, very little discount will be applied, and Ashley would most likely get close to the asking price. If they go down, the full discount to price will be applied and Ashley takes a big hit, and would most likely keep the club and gamble on promotion the following season.

So I think Ashley is gambling on JFK keeping the club up so he doesn't make a huge loss on NUFC, which he is entitled to do.

Personally I thought Shearer had always avoided the job as he knew he was on a hiding to nothing. With expectations so high, he wouldn't have a chance of fulfilling those. Now however, I think the general mood is that we have hit rock bottom. Unlike last season, I think we could genuinely get relegated this year, and what better time for a manager to take over, when a team with better players than about half the league is underperforming. It will only take a half decent manager to get us to about 12th, and this season most Newcastle fans will be overjoyed with that. I'd rather take control with those set of expectations, rather than in the summer when everyone will expect you to finish top 6.

If anybody doesn't know, ESPN Classic is showing loads of old games on Sky (Channel 442) - today's game was Newcastle Chelsea 1994.

What a beautiful feeling watching that game. Second season in the Premier League and so full of hope  . The stands are half complete, which has a weird feel about it watching it. Chelsea's scorers include Gavin Peacock, and a penalty was given to us by Steve Clarke, both with toon connections. Cole scored probably his best goal for us. This was only about 2 weeks after we were labelled the entertainers. Fantastic football. And it was my 17th birthday, last one before I left the north east and moved to Manc land.

The other thing I noticed from the game was the crowd, right behind the team from the start. Chants every couple of minutes.  The ony player who got a little bit of stick was Mike Hooper, and of course Dennis Wise ...

Agree with all of the positive comments, problem is, as soon as he has an off game everyone will be on his back again. Most other players in the team would be excused that, but Shola, Duff and Nicky Butt (and very soon Taylor) will attract criticism from the crowd as soon as they have a few bad touches.

Whilst he is at the cub, trying to win a new contract, and with no better options, everyone should support him, regardless of your view on his natural ability.

Its pretty simple really. The aim for NUSC should be to act in the best interests of the supporters of the club as a whole, same as the directors of a company have to. Not a small group with a blinkered agenda. Not having "change" as an aspect of its motto.

 

This should involve:

 

1. Helping to give a positive image of the fans as a whole, and the points made by above about doing good things in the community, letter to Sunderland fans family who lost life etc. are good steps in the right direction. You would expect a body like NUSC to be vocal about ensuring better ticket allocation, season ticket payment methods, opportunities for elderly/disabled fans etc.

 

2. Trying to guage the views of fans as a whole so they have some idea of the opinion of fans who can't attend the meetings, or who don't pay the membership fee, so they can direct their efforts accordingly. Surely a free to register internet poll or something can guage the views of fans better than 50 people at a meeting?

 

3. Ultimately engaging with discussions with whoever the club owners are to work together in the best interests of the club.

 

My problem with NUSC at the moment is that they don't seem to have a grasp on point 2 - the opinions are limited to those of the founding members I think, or the limited few who turn up to the meetings. There is no effort to guage the opinion of fans as a whole. Its all very well saying that if you don't agree, turn up to a meeting and voice an opinion, but in practice how many normal fans would be prepared to turn up in the Irish Club whilst 50 other fans are discussing how best to hurt Ashley (financially), and say "Hold on a second lads, can we just chat about whether this is really a good idea this whole I hate Mike thing?"

 

My second problem is with point 3. How can a group which has its stated aim as "change" and ousting Mike Ashley act in the best interests of supporters or indeed the club as a whole? What if the best thing for the club at any given time would be for Mike Ashley to remain in charge? What if the only interested buyer wishes to saddle the club with massive debt to finance the acquisition? What if the new owners aren't actually planning to put their own cash into the club? Those who snorted at Ashley's £20m a year pledge will be aware that Gillett/Hicks/Glaziers have not put in a penny of their own cash into the operating costs of the club.

 

I'm not saying the NUSC has to be pro-Ashley by any means, but to adopt such a blinkered approach to their agenda is damaging for both the club and the supporters.

 

 

 

Sums my feelings up perfectly, point 1 should of been nailed with there very first public statement.

 

Good post.

 

its good, but what would help the NUSC  is to have some high profile people on their side, to publicly raise the stakes and the newsworthiness of it all, like Malcolm Dix did.

 

 

You need to have the objectives sorted first before you start thinking about backers/publicity.

Sorry for the corporate analogy again, but the thing that happens with a company is that they set out a memorandum of association which sets out the goals and objectives of the company. This is what should have happened with NUSC. The committee should then be appointed to run the SC on the basis of those clearly defined objectives. Those key objectives, like my points above, should be page 1 of any leaflet, website, publication.

I would personally like to see someone on the committee who is independent i.e. isn't associated in any way with the running of NUSC or connected in any way to the other committee members, whose sole job is to monitor the actions of NUSC to see if they are complying with these objectives. I also think that different parts of the committee should focus on the different objectives to ensure that all objectives are being pursued i.e. a member whose job it is to find the best ways possible to gather supporter opinion, and not get involved in any other aspect etc.

You have to get the basic setup right, otherwise despite your best intentions you end up looking like a single issue focus group, which to be honest it is starting to look like.

Its pretty simple really. The aim for NUSC should be to act in the best interests of the supporters of the club as a whole, same as the directors of a company have to. Not a small group with a blinkered agenda. Not having "change" as an aspect of its motto.

This should involve:

1. Helping to give a positive image of the fans as a whole, and the points made by above about doing good things in the community, letter to Sunderland fans family who lost life etc. are good steps in the right direction. You would expect a body like NUSC to be vocal about ensuring better ticket allocation, season ticket payment methods, opportunities for elderly/disabled fans etc.

2. Trying to guage the views of fans as a whole so they have some idea of the opinion of fans who can't attend the meetings, or who don't pay the membership fee, so they can direct their efforts accordingly. Surely a free to register internet poll or something can guage the views of fans better than 50 people at a meeting?

3. Ultimately engaging with discussions with whoever the club owners are to work together in the best interests of the club.

My problem with NUSC at the moment is that they don't seem to have a grasp on point 2 - the opinions are limited to those of the founding members I think, or the limited few who turn up to the meetings. There is no effort to guage the opinion of fans as a whole. Its all very well saying that if you don't agree, turn up to a meeting and voice an opinion, but in practice how many normal fans would be prepared to turn up in the Irish Club whilst 50 other fans are discussing how best to hurt Ashley (financially), and say "Hold on a second lads, can we just chat about whether this is really a good idea this whole I hate Mike thing?"

My second problem is with point 3. How can a group which has its stated aim as "change" and ousting Mike Ashley act in the best interests of supporters or indeed the club as a whole? What if the best thing for the club at any given time would be for Mike Ashley to remain in charge? What if the only interested buyer wishes to saddle the club with massive debt to finance the acquisition? What if the new owners aren't actually planning to put their own cash into the club? Those who snorted at Ashley's £20m a year pledge will be aware that Gillett/Hicks/Glaziers have not put in a penny of their own cash into the operating costs of the club.

I'm not saying the NUSC has to be pro-Ashley by any means, but to adopt such a blinkered approach to their agenda is damaging for both the club and the supporters.

Admit he made mistakes, clear out Wise and Llambias, put in place a proper manager (doesn't even have to be Keegan), give him the budget that was promised i.e. £20m on top of what the club generates itself, and let them get on with it.

He would be forgiven and welcomed with open arms by me, and anyone who says otherwise is living in fantasy land and expect us to be the next Chelsea or Man City. I honestly would rather have steady sustainable progress and the club keep its identity, rather than be another rich Arab/Russian play thing which bears no resemblence to the club I was brought up with. Think Aston Villa/Arsenal.

Miller can on as a sub for them last night and looked 100% better than Shola.

Miller is far from being a class act, but at least he looked interested. He put the effort in, and has a bit of speed and aggression and a little bit of ability.

Would The Stroller be able to score the goal that Miller did ? I dont think so.

(Wonder if They would swap )

No he didn't. Most of what he did was pretty average, and apart from his goal which I agree he took very well, he never looked threatening and never created a chance for anyone else.

Same old predictable campaign against Shola I see.

Last night he was the best performing striker on the pitch, looking at the game as a whole. But I expect all that anyone can remember is the chance when he stood on the ball. Martins run to the byline and then putting it out for a throw was worse than that. And the comments about not understanding offside are baffling - my recollection is that Martins was flagged offside more than Shola. Even in the second half when his performance did dip, he was still played some intelligent balls in for Duff, and over the game did not just win the majority of headers, actually flicked on for Martins and others to run at their defenders.

Don't get me wrong, Martins is my favourite NUFC player, but on form this season alone Shola has been the better player.

Given our striking options appear to be Owen, Martins, Viduka, Shola, Xisco, Smith and Carroll this season, I would quite comfortably put Shola as 4th place in that list, arguably 3rd as I think Viduka is finished even if he does get fit again. Given also that most of this list are incredibly unjury prone I expect Shola to get a fair amount of time on the pitch this season, and we need him in our current plight. So why not show the lad a bit of support for a change?