Stu

Heard he is homophobic

It's a flawed system, you have Italy with a 25% win percentage because of their draw with us, where as Denmark who were knocked out in the group stages have a 33% win percentage? It's hardly the greatest way to judge the teams tbh. Win % also isn't a good barometer considering teams tactics and mentalities change during the group stages and to the knock out stages. Another thing is that Germany have a 100% record because they beat Portugal, where as Spain don't have a 100% record because Italy drew with them. I think I took the 'average' comment the wrong way though (I took it literally), which was canny daft considering it was clearly highlighted with apostrophes Fair comment the 'average team' comment was about Italy's performance in an overall table of the 16 teams. The Portugal losing to Germany stat can be read however you want, but I see it as they've beaten every team except the best performing one...the next match will show if they will validate this reading or not Given the small sample of matches in the tournament, it's extremely difficult/dangerous to read to much into the stats but there's not much else that you can tangibly look at. In-match stats would be next and without looking into it, I would hazard a guess that Spain haven't been keeping the ball as well in these matches as they did before the tournament (assuming Barca-levels of ball retention here, though). I'm not sure if lethal is the right word, as you say, they spurned plenty of chances - but this bodes well IMO, so long as teams are creating chances (which Portugal have been) then they're always going to have a chance of winning. To me, lethal is what we were against Chelsea...three shots on goal and scored two of them.

I think you're being a bit harsh on Italy (they are arguably better than Portugal) but I see the point. How am I being harsh on Italy? They're rated as to how they've performed (3 draws and a win against the worst performing team in the tournament).

How do you think Spain look against the counter? I thought that against Croatia they looked a bit sketchy, that glorious header aside, there were a couple of other good breaks that needed a bit more quality to cause Spain genuine problems. Even the French got some half-chances once Ribery got possession on the break, just a shame he had no-one to help him out when he got near the box (Portugal are much quicker).

For comparison (have no idea how this will turn out), trying to gauge some sort of 'strength of opposition' metric... Spain Opponents' Win % +GS (GS/game) 1-1 Italy DDWD 25% 4 (1) 4-0 Ireland LLL 0% 1 (0.3) 1-0 Croatia WDL 33% 4 (1.3) 2-0 France DWLL 25% 3 (.75) Portugal Opponents' Win % +GS (GS/game) 0-1 Germany WWWW 100% 9 (2.25) 3-2 Denmark WLL 33% 4 (1.3) 2-1 Holland LLL 0% 2 (0.6) 1-0 Czech Republic LWWL 50% 4 (1) Looks like they both beat the worst performing teams at the tournament (Ireland and Holland) but Portugal ran into the best team of the tournament whereas Spain have played 3 'average' teams.

Was going off the odds that Dinholad quoted for Spain, which suggested the price of qualifcation was somewhere around the 70:40~ mark (given that books should be running to around 112%)

Where's this?

Given the form shown so far and the match situation, I think it's closer to 50:50 than 70:30, in that instance I would be leaning towards the odds on Portugal qualifying.

I'm looking at it from a sporting perspective. Are you telling me you would go for Portugal solely based on its better value? Isn't that something you've accused me of doing in the past? Betting on value is vastly different to betting on potential returns. Betting on potential returns (the thing I "accused you of doing in the past"): wow, this 10x team accumulator has a possible return of £3493204492.12 for a £1.20 stake, I'm buying this bet! Betting on value (the thing I try to do): I think both teams are quite evenly matched and if they played 10 times, then the result would be split 50/50. The bookies have price one team up at odds on (4/6) and the other at odds-against (6/4), I'll back the team who I think are overpriced. That's a very simplistic view but hopefully you get the idea.

Don't think Spain to qualify at 2/5 is great value, Portugal are a lot closer than 70:30.

2 weeks for that bet

Can't wait for Stu to see this. Yeah, the reason I asked because when you usually pick a treble in a 6+ accy, it is usually £1x15, or £1x45, etc. So you're risking more there. Anyway, Stu can fuck off.

Not to belittle his sizeable returns, but lets put things into perspective... He won €583.33 after staking €600 - he'd have been just as well off sticking a single on Italy to QF at evens. Fair play to him picking a couple of winners from the 6 bets but he did have his bets hedged pretty well. I'd have been really impressed if he'd stuck a couple of doubles, trebles and four-folds on yesterday, maybe turning his £500/600 into £3500 profit

I said I'll stop doing heavy stakes. (I only did it twice, and the last time was on the CL final. ) Yeah, I come up with 7-10 accys, but I only put a £1 on those. I don't think I've ever placed crazy bets that you're claiming I do. Silly does not mean crazy

As many times as you've said you'll stop doing silly bets....then coming up with 6+ team/player accas

1/4. Cheers Ronny. 1/2. Cheers my Germans. 3/4. Cheers Mr. Alonso. (Jose's boys doing the business, as usual) Is Ashley one of Jose's boys? Burn I even joined in with D28 for this bet - hot dang! To be fair, that's a very unfortunate effort. Effectively a crossbar's width from winning great money. Very unlucky boys. I was an inch away from £1250

1/4. Cheers Ronny. 1/2. Cheers my Germans. 3/4. Cheers Mr. Alonso. (Jose's boys doing the business, as usual) Is Ashley one of Jose's boys? Burn I even joined in with D28 for this bet - hot dang!

I know, when I saw the teamsheet I felt numb. Should've been Parker Walcott Oxyface(not Milner) Gerrard Rooney Defoe What the fuck is this? are you from RTG?

Carroll or Rooney?

Fat Sam was right?

Aye

CAZZA!!!!

AC9 stat: Andy Carroll has a 100% goal-scoring and winning record in matches he has featured in immediately following a cocaine-fuelled sex orgy.

Give your head a shake, man.

Milner off instead of Young