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The 2011-2012 Betting Thread: Last call for 2011/12 football, pretty much


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Guest je85

Tippy  tippy tip tips: http://getyourtipsout.wordpress.com/

 

GYTOL15 at York Races @Channel4Racing

 

2.30 TWIRL 5/4

 

3.00 HOOF IT 3/1

 

4.10 TATLISU 2/1

 

4.45 WARFARE 10/1

 

We advise a £0.50 EW stake

 

York

 

1.30 Right Step 9/1 1 point EW

 

2.00 Shropshire 6/1 1 point win

 

2.30 Twirl 11/8 NAP 3 point win

 

3.00 Hoof It 3/1 NB 2 point win

 

3.35 Vasily 7/1 1 point EW

 

4.10 Tatlisu 9/4 2 point win

 

4.45 Warfare 10/1 1 point EW

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Guest Roger Kint

I want Stu to return today, like. I want another Bridgehampton. :aww:

 

I would guess Stu is going to back Twirl looking at todays racing.

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After coming back out of temporary retirement I fired back at the bookies with a nice £7.50 on Jordan Rhodes FGS @ 7/2 last night. £33.75 return I believe? Suppose I'll find out when I gan to pick it up after graft.

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Guest MrSundlofer

Gamba Osaka - Adelaide United

 

Gamba Osaka has been awful in the Japanese league and is in the last place in the AFC Champions League and won't qualify. Adelaide United will. Now they have to win to finish first in the group.

 

My money on Adelaide United to win.

 

2

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THE CHEKA IS VALUE CALL

By Simon Holt

 

3.00 YorkFIXED ODDS 

2pts The Cheka at best morning price 1500 York. Beat Mayson on reappearance and unexposed at trip.

 

The Duke Of York totepool Stakes is the feature race on the opening day of the Dante Festival and Mayson is bidding to complete a hat-trick for trainer Richard Fahey.

 

He's been much improved of late, showing a smart turn of foot to win the Abernant and Palace House Stakes at Newmarket over six and five furlongs respectively.

 

On those pieces of form he's a leading player here having beaten Definightly last time and he reopposes on the same terms here. Mayson is progressing but the one concern I have is that he's coming into this race off the back of three relatively quick runs.

 

Also on his reappearance he finished third behind The Cheka at Doncaster and that rival is a very interesting runner here. I like horses who drop back in distance and that's happened here with Eve Johnson-Houghton's charge who was a good winner of the Cammidge Trophy back at this trip for the first time.

 

He could well improve a good deal further at this distance and at the odds he looks a bit of value.

 

Hoof It and Society Rock are two obvious dangers being proven at the highest level. The former was very progressive last season and won the Stewards' Cup. He finished third in the Group One Betfred Sprint Cup at Haydock on his final start, looking a little unlucky.

 

However all his best form is on good or faster ground and I just wonder whether the potentially sticky surface at York is going to be ideal for Hoof If for all that he goes well at the track.

 

Society Rock on the other hand is one who does go on soft ground. He's a high class sprinter at his best, having won the Golden Jubilee as well as finishing second to Moonlight Cloud in the Prix Maurice de Gheest. However he disappointed on his final two starts and needs to bounce back to his best here.

 

Those seem to be the leading players although you can give something of a chance to Restiadargent who was fourth over seven furlongs first time out in the Prix Imprudence and will be suited by this drop in distance and the going conditions.

 

However I'm sticking with The Cheka who could be the value bet after that reappearance win.

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York 14:00 is where it's at today.

 

Valery Borzov - 33/1 e/w

York Glory - 6/1

 

+ The Checka - 11/1 at 15:00

 

FTN.

 

VALERY TO TASTE YORK GLORY AGAIN

By Nic Doggett

 

BETTING BOX  FIXED ODDS 

1pt win Valery Borzov in 14.00 York at 25/1 (Boylesports, Coral). Should love the ground conditions and won this race back in 2009. Fairly handicapped on old form.

 

1pt win York Glory in 14.00 York at 8/1 (Boylesports, Paddy Power). Very progressive last season and this proven course winner could be a class above his rivals.

 

The William Birch & Sons Construction Stakes looks very competitive, however two horses jump out at me and making most appeal at 25/1 is VALERY BORZOV.

 

Formerly trained by Dandy Nicholls, the eight-year-old is now in the care of Richard Fahey albeit in the same ownership, and actually won this race in 2009.

 

He ran a modest race on his comeback at Beverley, but that run over five furlongs on a stiff track is best ignored, and his effort next time at Newmarket was much more like it, finishing just four lengths behind the winner.

 

Although only dropped a solitary pound in the handicap, he should now be cherry ripe and it's worth remembering that he won on his third start last season, off a mark only 7lbs lower than this.

 

Also in his favour is the soft ground.

 

I walked the course earlier in the week and the Knavesmire is pretty sodden; although it drains better than it used to, and the home straight is dryer than the majority of the round course, it's still going to be testing going.

 

Five of this horse's wins have come on ground softer than good and he is also a prominent racer; that's certainly a positive as a quick glance back through previous winners of this race reveals.

 

Wyatt Earp in 2007 was the last winner to come from off the pace (trained by Fahey) and the majority of sprints at York go to those who race in the first half of the field.

 

This prize has rarely left the North, with Jeremy Noseda the last to pinch the pot in 2005 with Soldier's Tale, and his filly Instance is respected, but I can't help but feel that she'll get outpaced here.

 

A better second string to the bow in my eyes is YORK GLORY at 8/1 who could just be the other Group-class sprinter lurking in the field.

 

Kevin Ryan's colt really strode clear when winning on the Knavesmire last August and he was subsequently a little unlucky at Doncaster in the Portland.

 

He's proven over this trip, should handle the ground ok (already a winner on good to soft) and he made progress with every start last year, his first season on the track.

 

Now a four-year-old, there's every reason to expect further improvement and if he's fully tuned up for this reappearance, then he might just be a class above his rivals.

 

The well-fancied Shropshire must be a player off the same mark as when a close second at HQ last time, but he doesn't always put two good runs together and his form at York is truly woeful.

 

I can't help but feel that Tajneed is getting teed-up for a successful return to his favourite track Ripon, whilst New Planet's form isn't working out that well, although the strong pace here will certainly suit John Quinn's charge.

 

As you'd expect for day one of York, it's a tight handicap to pick apart, and one which has seen eight of the last 10 renewals won by horses priced at 7/1 or less, but I'm happy to stick with Valery Borzov and York Glory against the field.

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I refuse to back anything other than hoof it today. I don't care, i'll take a ban if it wins whilst everyone else is on the cheka. I can't deal with getting beat by a nostril off another hoof horse. I refuse to put myself in the same situation as yesterday. It all got out of hand however today is the day we are friends with the hoof and he redeems all of our losses.

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I refuse to back anything other than hoof it today. I don't care, i'll take a ban if it wins whilst everyone else is on the cheka. I can't deal with getting beat by a nostril off another hoof horse. I refuse to put myself in the same situation as yesterday. It all got out of hand however today is the day we are friends with the hoof and he redeems all of our losses.

 

Piss off.

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