I think the Brighton away game will be pivotal for us.
If City beat Villa then I think we pip Villa on goal difference only.
If Villa beat City then we will need to beat Brighton to finish above City.
If Villa and City draw then we need to beat Brighton to pip Villa.
Assuming we win all our home games, get beat off Arsenal and City and Villa win all their games which on paper looks doable. If Villa make up their goal difference then a win at Brighton would be needed. It's also assuming Forest don't capitulate, which I don't think they will. Getting beat off Brighton is unthinkable for us.