Consortium of one

I think the DOF model would have worked with the right backroom staff in place, even with Keegan as manager.  Lliambas, Wise and Jiminez were in over their heads, IMO, and I think that Keegan had had enough of the BS they were feeding him.  I'll bet he got pissed off, called them on it (I'm speculating) and they began to force him out in retaliation.  The first mistake was not having key personal in Newcastle as opposed to London.  When all the shit hit the fan, there were reports that Lliambas and Wise were texting players from London when by all rights they should have gotten their asses up to the club to work with the staff and players directly.  If Lliambas, Wise, et al were headquartered with the team, communication would have been much better with the staff, players and fans, especially Keegan.  Allowing upper management to operate so far away is ludicrous, IMO, and it made the whole operation problematic which ultimately led to the break down and the resultant mess.

If Ashley stays and he's serious about being the owner the first thing he'll have to do is fire or reassign Wise and get someone who can handle the job.  Upper management should be relocated to be closer to the club and some money should be committed to the January window.  It doesn't have to be exhorbitant but enough to fill out the squad so it has adequate coverage at all positions.

On a seperate note, Owen should be sold off unless he wants to commit to the future of the club.  Any money from Owen sale should be plowed back into the roster IMMEDIATELY other wise Ashley will get flack for for owning a selling club.  He might have to walk a tightrope for a while but I think Ashley can get through this.  He just has to learn not to trust some of the people he has previously trusted.

I thought the team got a boost when Viduka came on.  The offense played with a purpose that has been rarely seen this season.  Viduka can be a real weapon.  It's too bad he can never stay healthy. Maybe Xisco can learn from him.  With zero creativity coming from the central midfield, Viduka is necessary.

I've been pro-Taylor but am now quite happy with the Coloccini-Basson pairing.

I thought Bassong was IMMENSE.  I've been pro-Taylor but Bassong and Colo made for a very nice pairing.  Granted the plan was defensive and perhaps that forced the back line to concentrate much more because outside of a couple of Beye head farts in the first half the back line was soooo much better.

Hart goes out with the ankle, too

http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v146/deadreflection/010278456896800.gif

"Toon new boy Jonas Gutierrez looks on in horror as teammate Martins is caught in orbit around Viduka."

Good lord but that got me laughing.  I needed a good one, too.

Owen and Guthrie set for place on the bench

 

Nov 7 2008 by Alan Oliver, Evening Chronicle

 

JOE KINNEAR will send out an unchanged side at Fulham on Sunday – with apologies to his skipper Michael Owen and midfielder Danny Guthrie.

 

Not surprisingly, the United boss will give the team which started Monday’s game with Aston Villa a vote of confidence, leaving Owen and Guthrie again on the bench.

 

Owen, of course, is just finding his way back after injury, but Guthrie has only let United down on one occasion since his summer switch from Liverpool, when the red mist came down against Hull and his reward was a similarly coloured card.

 

Said Kinnear today: “It was a hard decision to leave Danny Guthrie out on Monday, but I spoke to him and assured him that he still has a major part to play for this club.

 

“He is a young lad who really is still learning his trade, while Nicky Butt is an experienced player and that’s what I felt we needed on Monday.

 

“Not only that, but it was also about the shape of the team for, while Danny likes to get forward, Nicky has perfected the art of sitting in front of the back four.”

He's perfected the art because he CAN'T FOOKING RUN!

Clean sheet.  Martins scores a late winner.  1-0

I'm glad to see they've taken my years of Little League baseball manager experience as sports management seriously.  I'm surprised to be included as one of the two interested parties seen as they still haven't formally acknowledged my offer for the club, though.

Well, I have raised more money in my efforts to buy the club.  I've tabled an offer but they haven't responded.  Even though I haven't signed a non disclosure agreement, I'll still choose to honor it as an act of good faith. 

Geez, if we could ever get our best eleven fit and playing together for more than a few games we'd be more likely to keep the ball down.  I thought the first half was a definite step in the right direction.  Overall the team played with more confidence offensively and better overall defensively except for some lapses.  I thought Duff played well and I have a definite man crush on Jonas    For a player with such a long stride, he does a great job keeping the ball on his feet. Both he and Martins have great pace and can play with some physicality which is a nice combo, IMO. Shola was better and I think a Barton - Guthrie central midfield could work.  Beye played quite well too.  Taylor, Colo and Enrique had some lapses that could have cost us though but they also made some progress until the second half when the whole team played safe too early and gave away all the momentum to WBA.  A better group of finishers would have won that game.

Still it's 3 points and a positive move forward.  The team needs to build on this game though. 

What I'd like:

----------Given----------

Taylor--Beye--Colo--Enrique

Jonas--Guthrie--Barton--Zogs

--------Martins--Ameobi-------

Jonas and Zogs can help widen the defense and Tayls looks like a right fullback to me.  He could be effective overlapping Jonas and bending the defense even more.  Enrique helps the offensive effort by pushing it forward as well.  Later in the game with a lead) Bassong for Enrique for defense and Duff for Zogs to help maintain possession.

I think Kinnear will go with Bassong and Duff to start and Beye and Tayls in their usual positions.

My lineup wins 3-1.  

JK's will win 2-1  

Just picked this up off tribal football but i dont know if this is made up or not .

 

 

Keegan return unlikely at Newcastle

 

    * Premiership News

 

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Keegan return unlikely at Newcastle

16.10.08 | tribalfootball.com

 

There is unlikely to be any triumphant return to Newcastle United for Kevin Keegan.

 

Keith Harris, the man employed by owner Mike Ashley to flog the Toon, reckons none of the interested parties want King Kev in charge.

 

Harris said: “Nobody has said to us that having Kevin as manager is a condition for them to go forward.

 

“Whoever the new owner would be, it would be their choice and there’s a wealth of management experience out there. But no one’s said it’s a pre-condition.”

That is media spin and selective quoting of the Keith Harris interview. It doesn't say Keegan will be back and it doesn't say he won't be. Why should whoever is trying to buy the club mention who they want as manager? Newcastle and Keegan are totally separate. It's not as if Ashley could guarantee Keegan would return. I'd be worried about a buyer who only wanted NUFC if they could get Keegan back.

Yep.  Not sure why anyone would specify that Keegan as manager would have to be a "pre condition".  I'm sure any prospective owner who wants Keegan to return would speak to him beforehand but I don't see as a precondition it would be a deal breaker.  The only way it would have any importance would be if Keegan had a personal services contract with Mike Ashley, rather than the club.

This is one of the reasons I'm a bit meh about Owen leaving next year. When he's out with injury it's usually for a substantial amount of time, rarely for a minor tweak or niggle although I hope he proves me wrong on this one. He's done well on the injury front recently to be fair, but when it's all added up, the injury record, loss of pace and high wage demands I'm not sure it's a package we need beyond this season.

 

He's still a top player obviously but it's becoming a bit like the Henry situation at Arsenal. When he leaves and we buy a striker next season the team might develop in a positive way assuming we can bring some quality in.

This.

It's time to turn the page.

Paying off a lot of debt would raise the value of the club.  Debt is common in business and paying down X debt does not necessarily raise the value of the club by X.  Sometimes it could be more, sometimes less depending on other issues such as the value of assets and other liabilities and cash flow as well as outside influences, such as the economic climate.

Ashley should have been able to move the club rather quickly and probably withe a decent return on his investment had it not been for this sudden downturn.  I think we are stuck with him at least until the global situation improves.  The good news is that the club *should* be in good financial standing while a lot of other clubs will not be.  That's kind of like kissing your sister, though, because the only improvements seen on the pitch will be gained solely by injured players returning.

This is one of the things that counts towards the 'fair play' league place isn't it?

 

EDIT: Who is it that scores this, and is that all they do? That's some job!

7 point deduction for Guthrie's red

automatic 15 deduction for having Joey Barton on our roster 

Me and my consortium have raised up to $2,001.27 as of this morning.  I have spoken to someone at Seymour Pierce and have broached the idea of a face to face to begin hammering out details.  I must say I was rather put off by the fact that they expect me to pay my way over to London.  I thought they might be a little more gracious to a potential buyer, especially since air fair and accomodations would take up a substantial portion of the funds that I have raised.  I played it cool though, and told them that I'd effort the flight when I had a moment, referring to my quite busy schedule (pronounced "shedule" for an added air of continentality).  I expect that one of the higher up will trump the lackey I spoke to and call and roll out the red carpet for me any moment now.

Glad someone has finally told the press where to go but how naive was he to do that? Fuel to the fire, all it is.

Yeah but it's Kinnear's fire.  He's taken the focus off the team's lousy play and put a lot of it on him.  And as afar has said, he's gambling that he can use this to bring his squad together.

Ok, I’ve had a quick look at the accounts….

 

Re the season ticket money being received pre or post the accounts date – I think it’s a bit of both! The deferred income (excluding capital grants – government cash) (cash received in advance in effect) is £25 million, of which £10 million is sponsorship money (2 years of £5m each) if we believe that 100% of the money was received up front – this would also account for the £5m fall from 2006.

 

There is also a little bit of bond and corporate money in there – probably only a million or so, therefore we will ignore it, leaving c. £15 million season ticket money. Lets assume an average season ticket price of £400, with 48,000 tickets sold = £19 million.

 

So either some of the season ticket money had been received by the end of June or the club had not received any money for the final 2 years of the Northern Rock deal. Based on the dot cock numbers I think the average ticket price used may be a bit low, as it assumes an even number of child and adult tickets. It would be fair to assume that half of the season ticket money had not been received – There would also be another £3 million ticket money to be received during the year for general sale tickets and away fans (4,000 tickets at £35 each for 19 games). I have taken no cup games into account here.

 

Re the going concern, I was correct in my assumption that the auditors make no comment on this – although it is implied that they agree with Chris Mort’s comments in the director’s report by stating in their opinion that the report is accurate.

 

Basically the club does have net liabilities – and did so in the previous year as well. Eventually the club would have become insolvent if they continued to make losses, but this was not necessarily imminent!

 

Chris Mort makes reference on the cash injection (£75 million) from SJP Holdings making the club a ‘going concern’ (basically the club will be solvent for a period of more than 12 months). However from this only £45m (!) was only needed to ensure this as the change in ownership resulted in £45 million of loans originally due over a period of 11 years becoming due in 60 days. So if Ashley hadn’t bought the club this would not have occurred and the cash injection would not have been needed. The remainder of the injection was at Mikes discretion - he did not need to do this to keep the club afloat.

 

So, in summary the club was not about to go into administration last summer if we had not been bought out! On the other hand there is no doubting that the accounts will look a lot better this year.

 

The other interesting thing was the £3 million spent on refinancing projects which were aborted due to the takeover. This is a lot of money to be spent on this type of thing unless it was pretty much secured (imo of course). I would guess that it was to do with the casino and hotels which were mooted by Fred – and maybe he did have the outside finance in place which he claimed.

 

I know it’s a bit of a ramble, but if anyone wants me to clarify any specific point please shout

 

 

Just a reminder for those incapable of following complex arguments what the highly experienced and qualified accountant who reviewed the accounts thinks about this question.

 

Given SP60'sH's comments (mate you really need a new name!), dont think anyone has been floored at all in this debate. I think his "professional" opinion is very clear, backs what i thought at the time and does not support the doomsday merchants.

With all due respect, SP60sH did say that he would have to look into the cash flow issue which is a critical part of the equation.  I'm not sure how the wage bill is paid: weekly, bi weekly, monthly?  Staff payroll, maintenance costs and fixed expenses all have to be met on a consistent basis.  That the club was running with a net liability doesn't appear to be in debate.  Any firm can do that and survive, obviously.  What is in question, at least for me, (and strictly out of curiousity's sake as I have no agenda.), is if the club had the necessary cash flow to meet it's current and longer term obligations.  Usually you don't look for help or look to sell until you see that you don't have the cash flow to meet your obligations.

It's going to be difficult to find out what collateral any buyer has, even more difficult to find out how much of that collateral is tied up, or invested in things that are one bad stockmarket day away from becoming next to worthless, and impossible to say how much of that collateral they're willing to risk in the transfer market.

 

We know through first-hand experience that trying to second guess the willingness to spend is a complete waste of time. Shepherd had to borrow, but normally spent. Ashley is a billionaire, but is as tight as a nun's chuff.

 

 

One thing I would like is for whoever buys us - individual, business or group of investors - to have one person who is clearly in charge, a figurehead and their ambassador to the fans and media (ie not just a spokesperson).  It's easy for a group of faceless folk to hide in the background and shrug their shoulders when the club needs a cash injection or is unhappy with the direction, pass the buck and share the blame.  It's a lot harder for an individual, as Ashley's found out.

Yeah, this is why a "consortium" presents a troubling perception.  First off, when a spokesman says they are attempting to raise the necessary money, the fear is that they'll raise enough money to buy the club but then be underfunded when it comes to moving the club forward.  The image of a consortium raising the necessary money is of a group cobbled together solely to get a certain amount of money.  Then, secondly, this group who was put together to get a set amount of money now has to work together running the club.  This is not a confidence inspiring setup to put it bluntly.

I'm working on an American consortium.  So far I've raised $157.73.

There has been some interesting info and good analysis in this thread.  I too, am interested to see what the cash flow was like.  I'm no accountant but I'm also not a stranger to the books.  I'm also American so some of the terms are different and may have slightly different connotations.   From what I can gather, it seems that even for good financial times, Shepherd was leveraged out close to the max that a reliable lender would find acceptable.  I would also suspect that when faced with a high wage bill and presumably weak (no?) cash flow Shepherd sought another loan (I know, pure speculation) and was met with a denial and quite probably, a frank assessment of his books.  See, I'm trying to figure why, if things were sound, would Hall and Shepherd suddenly sell.  They had just announced submittal of plans for a stadium expansion. Why go through that effort if you would have the whole club sold inside of two months?

The other thing that I don't understand is the loans.  Why did the due date accelerate if the club were sold?  Were Hall and Shepherd done a favor with some of these loans?  I can't help but think that with that kind of escalation clause that the loans were made as a personal favor to Hall and/or Shepherd.  In light of that escalation clause, my criticism of Ashley for not knowing that they would be due is muted.  I certainly wouldn't think to look for something like that.  If the loan is made to the club, then it's to the club, irrespective of who the owner might be, and it's questionable to have it structured based on ownership.  Maybe this is common in your neck of the woods but not here in the States.  Given that, I can see where Ashley plans for the teams could have changed dramatically, given that he had to pay anywheres from 45m to 114m out of pocket to clear that mess up.  A 45m hit would hurt anyone's cash flow and was likely a big contributor to his austere approach to running the team.  What if those clauses weren't in those loans and he had the 45m still in hand?  Surely he could have made a nice splash in the transfer market with that AND been able to reduce some debt.

from a purely business standpoint, he should do nothing, not even hire a manager.  

 

And he won't, unless it looks bleak on the takeover front, in which case he knows that he'll need a man in charge.

 

As things stand he is essentially taking a hissy fit and saying that he won't be subsidising NUFC anymore, therefore, I'd imagine that stretches to new managers.

Yeah,  if he can't sell the club in the immediate future, he'll have to (and should) appoint a manager.  If he thinks he could sell it quickly (say before January, he may hold off on an appointment.  It's just that usually while a club is up for sale, you try not to make many changes and defer them to the prospective owner, instead.  If you don't have a prospective owner, you have to make those kinds of moves to show that the club is a viable on going entity.

Frank Gilmour is my hero.

Just saying...

from a purely business standpoint, he should do nothing, not even hire a manager.  

Problem is Keegan isn't happy with that, which is a part of the problem.

 

Based on? I'm assuming transfer budgets were discussed before he accepted the position.

 

The much publicised interview at the back end of last season.

 

I'd assume his specific role was discussed then as well, but he continually appears to suggest not.

 

If he wasn't happy then with the transfer budget then he should have left at the end of the season.

This is why I think Ashley was trying to prop up an uneasy alliance that was doomed to fail.  I think he told both sides that it was going to work and both sides took that to mean that they would ultimately get their way.  Wise, et al, got their way in the end and Keegan walked.  There was a communications break down and as good as this management team is at procuring inexpensive talent, they appear to be as bad at communicating.