Newcastle United have around a 6.7% chance of winning Carling Cup - discuss

[Optimistic Nut]

Tool.

[Guest Roger Kint]

I started this thread because Betfair punters think we have more than a 5% chance of winning our first major trophy since 1969. That's pretty significant. Just see how long it lasts.

 

Its the last 16 isnt it? So putting betfair aside our odds are 6.25% just for being there, any other odds are purely speculative nonsense given nobody knows who we will play. Stupid thread tbh.

[Guest RowanB]

I started this thread because Betfair punters think we have more than a 5% chance of winning our first major trophy since 1969. That's pretty significant. Just see how long it lasts.

 

Its the last 16 isnt it? So putting betfair aside our odds are 6.25% just for being there, any other odds are purely speculative nonsense given nobody knows who we will play. Stupid thread tbh.

 

No. That's wrong. If all the teams were equal, then everyone's odds would represent a 6.25% chance. The odds factor in the quality of each team. It's not purely speculative nonsense. Why don't you tell an odds compiler that it's nonsense? The odds take into account the fact that you can be drawn against anyone and will alter when the draw is made. We could be drawn away to Man Utd, but that's somewhat offset by the fact we could be drawn at home to Northampton.

 

As there is a lot of liquidity in the Betfair market, the odds serve as a brilliant means of gauging the probability of football related events occuring. The price is unlikely to be far 'wrong'.

[Guest Roger Kint]

Pile of shite, everyone is equal until the draw is made. At present its simply a list of 16 teams therefore its speculative nonsense as it stands to say what probability we have of winning. Feel free to waste your time continuing to think it matters though.

[Guest johnson293]

I started this thread because Betfair punters think we have more than a 5% chance of winning our first major trophy since 1969. That's pretty significant. Just see how long it lasts.

 

Its the last 16 isnt it? So putting betfair aside our odds are 6.25% just for being there, any other odds are purely speculative nonsense given nobody knows who we will play. Stupid thread tbh.

 

No. That's wrong. If all the teams were equal, then everyone's odds would represent a 6.25% chance. The odds factor in the quality of each team. It's not purely speculative nonsense. Why don't you tell an odds compiler that it's nonsense? The odds take into account the fact that you can be drawn against anyone and will alter when the draw is made. We could be drawn away to Man Utd, but that's somewhat offset by the fact we could be drawn at home to Northampton.

 

As there is a lot of liquidity in the Betfair market, the odds serve as a brilliant means of gauging the probability of football related events occuring. The price is unlikely to be far 'wrong'.

 

So, what are Northamptons odds, considering they beat Liverpool at Anfield last night?

[Guest RowanB]

Pile of s****, everyone is equal until the draw is made. At present its simply a list of 16 teams therefore its speculative nonsense as it stands to say what probability we have of winning. Feel free to waste your time continuing to think it matters though.

 

Wow. I can't believe you're being serious. It's a simple concept!

[Guest RowanB]

I started this thread because Betfair punters think we have more than a 5% chance of winning our first major trophy since 1969. That's pretty significant. Just see how long it lasts.

 

Its the last 16 isnt it? So putting betfair aside our odds are 6.25% just for being there, any other odds are purely speculative nonsense given nobody knows who we will play. Stupid thread tbh.

 

No. That's wrong. If all the teams were equal, then everyone's odds would represent a 6.25% chance. The odds factor in the quality of each team. It's not purely speculative nonsense. Why don't you tell an odds compiler that it's nonsense? The odds take into account the fact that you can be drawn against anyone and will alter when the draw is made. We could be drawn away to Man Utd, but that's somewhat offset by the fact we could be drawn at home to Northampton.

 

As there is a lot of liquidity in the Betfair market, the odds serve as a brilliant means of gauging the probability of football related events occuring. The price is unlikely to be far 'wrong'.

 

So, what are Northamptons odds, considering they beat Liverpool at Anfield last night?

 

160.0 is the biggest price being offered at the moment, implying a 0.625% chance but it's very unlikely anyone will take that price. Far too short. Should be at least 500.0.

[merlin]

I would have thought that anyone who has studied the club's history over the past 40 years would have been careful NOT to start a thread like this - the closest we have come to winning silverware in that time was in 1976 when we lost at Wembley to Man C ; I am certain that we would have beaten them if we had not suffered from a flu epidemic beforehand, and lost Geoff Nulty(the Captain) to an injury in another cup tie.

The team were scoring goals for fun before that happened, but once again, ill fortune dogged the club as if it were cursed...

(I don't think the 95/96 title challenge was as close because we had effectively LOST the PL title to Man U before the final game, so whereas we were only 90 mins from a cup in 76, we were more than that away in 96).

 

OK, so we have beaten Chelsea's reserves with our own in a competition they weren't really interested in, but there are far too many pitfalls lying ahead before this sort of hubris can be considered,,,ask Liverpool!!

 

If we get drawn at OT(or even WBA)we could find ourselves out so forget this until January - IF we are still in the competition....

[Guest RowanB]

Merlin. Money talks. We are trading at 15.0 to win the tournament. Feel free to lay the hell out of that if you think we have less than a 6.7% chance of winning.

[Guest johnson293]

I started this thread because Betfair punters think we have more than a 5% chance of winning our first major trophy since 1969. That's pretty significant. Just see how long it lasts.

 

Its the last 16 isnt it? So putting betfair aside our odds are 6.25% just for being there, any other odds are purely speculative nonsense given nobody knows who we will play. Stupid thread tbh.

 

No. That's wrong. If all the teams were equal, then everyone's odds would represent a 6.25% chance. The odds factor in the quality of each team. It's not purely speculative nonsense. Why don't you tell an odds compiler that it's nonsense? The odds take into account the fact that you can be drawn against anyone and will alter when the draw is made. We could be drawn away to Man Utd, but that's somewhat offset by the fact we could be drawn at home to Northampton.

 

As there is a lot of liquidity in the Betfair market, the odds serve as a brilliant means of gauging the probability of football related events occuring. The price is unlikely to be far 'wrong'.

 

So, what are Northamptons odds, considering they beat Liverpool at Anfield last night?

 

160.0 is the biggest price being offered at the moment, implying a 0.625% chance but it's very unlikely anyone will take that price. Far too short. Should be at least 500.0.

 

Thats my point though - Northampton still on long odds, despite having beaten Liverpool.

 

Just shows the competition can throw up unlikely results, regardless of the quality of opposition. So to presume we have a great chance to win it after one result, even against Chelsea is a bit silly.

 

Lets just enjoy it for what it was (one good match/result), and see what the next round throws up, and see if we can win that one, and so on.

[Guest RowanB]

I started this thread because Betfair punters think we have more than a 5% chance of winning our first major trophy since 1969. That's pretty significant. Just see how long it lasts.

 

Its the last 16 isnt it? So putting betfair aside our odds are 6.25% just for being there, any other odds are purely speculative nonsense given nobody knows who we will play. Stupid thread tbh.

 

No. That's wrong. If all the teams were equal, then everyone's odds would represent a 6.25% chance. The odds factor in the quality of each team. It's not purely speculative nonsense. Why don't you tell an odds compiler that it's nonsense? The odds take into account the fact that you can be drawn against anyone and will alter when the draw is made. We could be drawn away to Man Utd, but that's somewhat offset by the fact we could be drawn at home to Northampton.

 

As there is a lot of liquidity in the Betfair market, the odds serve as a brilliant means of gauging the probability of football related events occuring. The price is unlikely to be far 'wrong'.

 

So, what are Northamptons odds, considering they beat Liverpool at Anfield last night?

 

160.0 is the biggest price being offered at the moment, implying a 0.625% chance but it's very unlikely anyone will take that price. Far too short. Should be at least 500.0.

 

Thats my point though - Northampton still on long odds, despite having beaten Liverpool.

 

Just shows the competition can throw up unlikely results, regardless of the quality of opposition. So to presume we have a great chance to win it after one result, even against Chelsea is a bit silly.

 

Lets just enjoy it for what it was (one good match/result), and see what the next round throws up, and see if we can win that one, and so on.

 

I'm not sure about a 'great' chance. Around a 6.7% chance, yes.

 

Your post is based on the assumption that I'm basing our chances on the result against Chelsea. It has nothing to do with that. That was against Chelsea reserves. Why would I put much weighting on that?

[Guest johnson293]

I started this thread because Betfair punters think we have more than a 5% chance of winning our first major trophy since 1969. That's pretty significant. Just see how long it lasts.

 

Its the last 16 isnt it? So putting betfair aside our odds are 6.25% just for being there, any other odds are purely speculative nonsense given nobody knows who we will play. Stupid thread tbh.

 

No. That's wrong. If all the teams were equal, then everyone's odds would represent a 6.25% chance. The odds factor in the quality of each team. It's not purely speculative nonsense. Why don't you tell an odds compiler that it's nonsense? The odds take into account the fact that you can be drawn against anyone and will alter when the draw is made. We could be drawn away to Man Utd, but that's somewhat offset by the fact we could be drawn at home to Northampton.

 

As there is a lot of liquidity in the Betfair market, the odds serve as a brilliant means of gauging the probability of football related events occuring. The price is unlikely to be far 'wrong'.

 

So, what are Northamptons odds, considering they beat Liverpool at Anfield last night?

 

160.0 is the biggest price being offered at the moment, implying a 0.625% chance but it's very unlikely anyone will take that price. Far too short. Should be at least 500.0.

 

Thats my point though - Northampton still on long odds, despite having beaten Liverpool.

 

Just shows the competition can throw up unlikely results, regardless of the quality of opposition. So to presume we have a great chance to win it after one result, even against Chelsea is a bit silly.

 

Lets just enjoy it for what it was (one good match/result), and see what the next round throws up, and see if we can win that one, and so on.

 

I'm not sure about a 'great' chance. Around a 6.7% chance, yes.

 

Your post is based on the assumption that I'm basing our chances on the result against Chelsea. It has nothing to do with that.

 

No, I assume your basing our chances on the fact that we are now in round 4, with a number of top teams now out (chelsea included) which should give us a better chance of progressing.

 

However, Man Utd and Arsenal are still in there, as are Northampton who have shown they are capable of getting a result at a Premiership ground.

 

Still nothing to start getting too excited for yet, as far as winning the trophy goes.... for me anyway.

[Newcastle Fan]

Please change the the thread title.

[Jayson]

Change the title man its embarrassing. Talk about trying to reinforce other fans moronic ideas about us.

[Andy]

I think some people are lacking a "tongue in cheek" detector.

[Optimistic Nut]

If Rowan was being tongue in cheek fair enough.

[Guest RowanB]

I started this thread because Betfair punters think we have more than a 5% chance of winning our first major trophy since 1969. That's pretty significant. Just see how long it lasts.

 

Its the last 16 isnt it? So putting betfair aside our odds are 6.25% just for being there, any other odds are purely speculative nonsense given nobody knows who we will play. Stupid thread tbh.

 

No. That's wrong. If all the teams were equal, then everyone's odds would represent a 6.25% chance. The odds factor in the quality of each team. It's not purely speculative nonsense. Why don't you tell an odds compiler that it's nonsense? The odds take into account the fact that you can be drawn against anyone and will alter when the draw is made. We could be drawn away to Man Utd, but that's somewhat offset by the fact we could be drawn at home to Northampton.

 

As there is a lot of liquidity in the Betfair market, the odds serve as a brilliant means of gauging the probability of football related events occuring. The price is unlikely to be far 'wrong'.

 

So, what are Northamptons odds, considering they beat Liverpool at Anfield last night?

 

160.0 is the biggest price being offered at the moment, implying a 0.625% chance but it's very unlikely anyone will take that price. Far too short. Should be at least 500.0.

 

Thats my point though - Northampton still on long odds, despite having beaten Liverpool.

 

Just shows the competition can throw up unlikely results, regardless of the quality of opposition. So to presume we have a great chance to win it after one result, even against Chelsea is a bit silly.

 

Lets just enjoy it for what it was (one good match/result), and see what the next round throws up, and see if we can win that one, and so on.

 

I'm not sure about a 'great' chance. Around a 6.7% chance, yes.

 

Your post is based on the assumption that I'm basing our chances on the result against Chelsea. It has nothing to do with that.

 

No, I assume your basing your assumptions on the fact that we are now in round 4, with a number of top teams now out (chelsea included) which should give us a better chance of progressing.

 

However, Man Utd and Arsenal are still in there, as are Northampton who have shown they are capable of getting a result at a Premiership ground.

 

Still nothing to start getting too excited for yet, as far as winning the trophy goes.... for me anyway.

 

OK. Well you did say 'to presume we have a great chance to win after one result', implying I'd based it on the Chelsea result. Pleased you've retracted that anyway. I don't actually have that much insight, but purely on the basis of the Betfair odds, we have a 6.7% chance. Seriously, that price is unlikely to be far wrong. The Betfair market tends to settle very close to the 'true price' as a result of the liquidity it receives.

[Optimistic Nut]

Is this like one of those radio wind-up's and I'm being whooshed or are you being serious?

[Guest RowanB]

It was tongue in cheek. Thanks for highlighting that Andy. The thing is, who could take it that literally? They only have to read the first post to realise this is about gauging the probability of something happening, as opposed to certainty. Anyway, it's causing people a lot of anguish, so I will alter it.

[Guest RowanB]

Is this like one of those radio wind-up's and I'm being whooshed or are you being serious?

Is this like one of those radio wind-up's and I'm being whooshed or are you being serious?

 

Of course I'm being serious. Betfair punters are being serious backing us at 15.0. If we have less than a 6.7% chance, then 15.0 is a value lay. Feel free to exploit it. I'm staying out of it, because I lack the insight and the price is probably about 'right', and therefore neither a value back or lay.

[Guest je85]

What kind of accumulative probability would we be looking at if you bet 'to qualify' at each round after the draw? I have a feeling it would settle at a different value.

[Guest RowanB]

Interesting point Je. On average (considering all draw permutations), it would probably work out something similar believe it or not. The Betfair football markets are never far 'wrong', and the 'to qualify' markets are likely to roughly equate to the 'tournament win' markets on average. If you give me some odds, I'll tell you the accumulative odds though.

[Ketsbaia]

0-10% because we won't win it. We just won't.

[Guest RowanB]

I'd put us in the 0-10% bracket as well, but given how long it's been since our last major trophy win, the 6.7% billing Betfair punters have given us is quite exciting.

[Unlucky Luque]

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