eliassenfredrik Posted April 27, 2012 Share Posted April 27, 2012 So let me get this straight, they made it 2-1, then missed a pen, then conceded in the last minute? Pretty much. Hit the bar in extra time as well. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest idlebob Posted April 27, 2012 Share Posted April 27, 2012 It's an omnishambles Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
polpolpol Posted April 27, 2012 Share Posted April 27, 2012 Is that your own creation? I got someone with the programming skills to code it for me, I just told him how to weight form, home / away, context and some other stuff. It basically takes every game from the season so far and comes up with correct score possibilities, but the more recent games add more to the count, so it has form weighting. How did you decide on the weighting to apply? And do you feel as if it works? Often it comes up with the same odds as the bookies - when it doesn't, sometimes it can be right - spotting form or under rated teams - but equally, sometimes when it's off it is because there are other factors beyond the pure maths and it works to bet against it. The main problems are that (1) it can't simulate when a team is huge favourite, even with weighting for teams being 'top4' or whatever. (2) It can't understand how underdogs are often happy with a draw. (3) It underrates the frequency of 0-0 and overrates 3-0, 0-0 is basically a hard scoreline to break, so nils should cluster with other nils, but the distribution can't do it. I use it more for correct score accys than win - loss. It's a tool, but judgement is much more useful. The dream was to scrape the data directly from betfair and have it as a bot, but it proved too much work. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest K9 Posted April 27, 2012 Share Posted April 27, 2012 So let me get this straight, they made it 2-1, then missed a pen, then conceded in the last minute? Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest idlebob Posted April 27, 2012 Share Posted April 27, 2012 Is that your own creation? I got someone with the programming skills to code it for me, I just told him how to weight form, home / away, context and some other stuff. It basically takes every game from the season so far and comes up with correct score possibilities, but the more recent games add more to the count, so it has form weighting. How did you decide on the weighting to apply? And do you feel as if it works? Often it comes up with the same odds as the bookies - when it doesn't, sometimes it can be right - spotting form or under rated teams - but equally, sometimes when it's off it is because there are other factors beyond the pure maths and it works to bet against it. The main problems are that (1) it can't simulate when a team is huge favourite, even with weighting for teams being 'top4' or whatever. (2) It can't understand how underdogs are often happy with a draw. (3) It underrates the frequency of 0-0 and overrates 3-0, 0-0 is basically a hard scoreline to break, so nils should cluster with other nils, but the distribution can't do it. I use it more for correct score accys than win - loss. It's a tool, but judgement is much more useful. The dream was to scrape the data directly from betfair and have it as a bot, but it proved too much work. So have you analysed the occasions on which your system disagrees with the bookies to see who's right? And if I'm understanding it right, and your data pool builds over the course of the season, it should get more accurate over time. Do you find that? Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
polpolpol Posted April 27, 2012 Share Posted April 27, 2012 Is that your own creation? I got someone with the programming skills to code it for me, I just told him how to weight form, home / away, context and some other stuff. It basically takes every game from the season so far and comes up with correct score possibilities, but the more recent games add more to the count, so it has form weighting. How did you decide on the weighting to apply? And do you feel as if it works? Often it comes up with the same odds as the bookies - when it doesn't, sometimes it can be right - spotting form or under rated teams - but equally, sometimes when it's off it is because there are other factors beyond the pure maths and it works to bet against it. The main problems are that (1) it can't simulate when a team is huge favourite, even with weighting for teams being 'top4' or whatever. (2) It can't understand how underdogs are often happy with a draw. (3) It underrates the frequency of 0-0 and overrates 3-0, 0-0 is basically a hard scoreline to break, so nils should cluster with other nils, but the distribution can't do it. I use it more for correct score accys than win - loss. It's a tool, but judgement is much more useful. The dream was to scrape the data directly from betfair and have it as a bot, but it proved too much work. So have you analysed the occasions on which your system disagrees with the bookies to see who's right? And if I'm understanding it right, and your data pool builds over the course of the season, it should get more accurate over time. Do you find that? I did a bit of analysis, but I had to do it manually and it was a real grind to get all of those different bits of data into a table. If the bookies price and the price I have is significantly different - more than 50%, or even 100%, it's worth looking at usually - but I don't always go for the maths. If there's injuries, players rested, or - at this time of year - teams with nothing to play for, sometimes instinct is better. It certainly gets better over time. Up to Christmas, it isn't so good. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
SEMTEX Posted April 27, 2012 Share Posted April 27, 2012 This sounds like a pointless programming project. I'm in. See you guys in December. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest idlebob Posted April 27, 2012 Share Posted April 27, 2012 This sounds like a pointless programming project. I'm in. See you guys in December. Yup, we've certainly found a great new way to take all the fun out of gambling, haven't we? Meanwhile, presumably Dinho is out on the town tonight, spending his winnings. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
SEMTEX Posted April 27, 2012 Share Posted April 27, 2012 This sounds like a pointless programming project. I'm in. See you guys in December. Yup, we've certainly found a great new way to take all the fun out of gambling, haven't we? Meanwhile, presumably Dinho is out on the town tonight, spending his winnings. Too busy to bet/go out on the town, drawing mySQL database schema Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest idlebob Posted April 27, 2012 Share Posted April 27, 2012 This sounds like a pointless programming project. I'm in. See you guys in December. Yup, we've certainly found a great new way to take all the fun out of gambling, haven't we? Meanwhile, presumably Dinho is out on the town tonight, spending his winnings. Too busy to bet/go out on the town, drawing mySQL database schema Painfully close to the truth Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dinho lad Posted April 27, 2012 Share Posted April 27, 2012 Out in the town spending my winnings? Nah, I'm saving to make a fortune.... I want thousands and thousands of pounds! Anyway, my start to the weekend is not going well..... Braga being held at home. Fucking twats! (Come on Hugo!) Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dinho lad Posted April 27, 2012 Share Posted April 27, 2012 Fucking Braga have conceded now and are losing 2-1..... just as I was about to put a bet for a draw! Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Corrigan Posted April 27, 2012 Share Posted April 27, 2012 Sat - Premier Favourites Arsenal - Everton - Liverpool - Newcastle - All To Win £20 Returns £380 (Betfair £318.13, Ladbrokes £335.60, Coral £344, Bet365 £334.80) (Outright) Odds: 18/1 Stake: 21.00 Possible Return: 399.00 If arsenal are the ones to fuck it up then i will be even happier than winning the bet Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dinho lad Posted April 27, 2012 Share Posted April 27, 2012 FUCK IT..... I've placed 500 on Olhanese (the team braga playing) to hold on!! Returns 125 net!! come on.. only few minutes to goo!!! Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dinho lad Posted April 27, 2012 Share Posted April 27, 2012 braga down to 10 men, btw. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Corrigan Posted April 27, 2012 Share Posted April 27, 2012 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest idlebob Posted April 27, 2012 Share Posted April 27, 2012 Will that break you even? Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dinho lad Posted April 27, 2012 Share Posted April 27, 2012 It will more than make-up for yesterday's losses of nearly 90 quid. Fresh start for the weekend! Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest idlebob Posted April 27, 2012 Share Posted April 27, 2012 Sat - Premier Favourites Arsenal - Everton - Liverpool - Newcastle - All To Win £20 Returns £380 (Betfair £318.13, Ladbrokes £335.60, Coral £344, Bet365 £334.80) (Outright) Odds: 18/1 Stake: 21.00 Possible Return: 399.00 If arsenal are the ones to f*** it up then i will be even happier than winning the bet I'd be most worried about Liverpool there. But after tonight, wtf do I know? Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dinho lad Posted April 27, 2012 Share Posted April 27, 2012 stoppage time.... COME ON!! THIS IS NO FUN WATCHING IT ON LIVESCORE.COM! IT'S LIKE THE CEEFAX ALL OVER AGAIN! Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest idlebob Posted April 27, 2012 Share Posted April 27, 2012 stoppage time.... COME ON!! THIS IS NO FUN WATCHING IT ON LIVESCORE.COM! IT'S LIKE THE CEEFAX ALL OVER AGAIN! Hills are showing it live Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Corrigan Posted April 27, 2012 Share Posted April 27, 2012 Sat - Premier Favourites Arsenal - Everton - Liverpool - Newcastle - All To Win £20 Returns £380 (Betfair £318.13, Ladbrokes £335.60, Coral £344, Bet365 £334.80) (Outright) Odds: 18/1 Stake: 21.00 Possible Return: 399.00 If arsenal are the ones to f*** it up then i will be even happier than winning the bet I'd be most worried about Liverpool there. But after tonight, wtf do I know? True but I'm a sucker for a losing bet Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dinho lad Posted April 27, 2012 Share Posted April 27, 2012 Need to have credit in my account. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dinho lad Posted April 27, 2012 Share Posted April 27, 2012 This is agony. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dinho lad Posted April 27, 2012 Share Posted April 27, 2012 5min of stoppage time already played.... have no idea how much left!! Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
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