bovril

70th Minute Monitor:

Bentacur 7/1

Danillo 8/1

Bonucci 8/1

All had a couple of fouls. I haven't placed, will wait for 80th minute to see any further subs. 

Edit: Arthur just come on at 18/1. Definitely one to watch. 

Edit: 80th minute

12/1 Bentacur

20/1 Arthur

Small stakes placed on both. Still not great value so only small bites. 

Odds have been slashed due to the expected cards. Watching brief for me at those prices. Will take a look at the 70min mark and again at the 80th to monitor the flow of both games/player moods. 

Picked up Joelinton to be booked 80mins in @33/1 …we're back on the train. 

3 hours ago, The Prophet said:

I'm waiting on a potential voided leg for my first winner in what feels like forever. 

 

I've reduced stakes due to some terrible luck of late: goals bets being sunk by red cards and missed penalties, players getting away with blatant yellow card challenges, normally card happy refs having an evening off, etc.

 

My good start to the season has bailed me out at least, its just the nature of the beast. Hopefully a hot streak is incoming.

Share your pain Prophet in the last week. Had a double come in yesterday but after a superb couple of months I've drawn a blank the last week, have to expect it though as you say it's the nature of the beast.

Hopefully a few tasty winners in the late games in Europe today. 

Said Benrahma to assist Michail Antonio and Michail Antonio to assist Said Benrahma @ 100/1

Antonio 2+ shots on target and Townsend 1+ shot on target @ 6/1

BTTS, 1+ corners each team in each half & 20+ booking points each team @ 13/2

Swansea vs Cardiff

Grimes / Ralls / Moore / Bidwell all to be booked 275/1

58 minutes ago, jack j said:

Bet365 had a glitch on the getafe game. David Timor was 11/1 to be booked. Was never a certainty but the best odds for an outfield player is usually about 3/1! He was as little as 6/5 on betfair

Won abit on the horses and got carried away stuck 40 on him

Booked after 20 odd mins...wasn't sure if they'd pay out but they did!

It's not a glitch, it's just 365's card prices tend to be much better value than elsewhere. Another example (that didn't come in) was Mbeumo for the Brentford vs Chelsea match earlier today, he was 9/1 pre-match. 

That was David Timor's first booking of the season, so explains it a bit. Nice win all the same. 

Toney & Lukaku to score and Jansson & Azpilicueta to be carded @ 100/1

Lukaku 2+ shots on target and Toney 1+ shot on target @ 4/1

After a great couple of weeks, these last few days have been pretty fruitless unfortunately. 

Laimer / Vestergaard / Ilsanker cards @ 80/1

Hinteregger / Grillitsch / Delaney cards @ 170/1

Denmark to score 2+ goals, 5+ Denmark corners & 20+ Austria booking pts @ 3/1

Denmark to score 3+ goals, 6+ Denmark corners & 20+ Austria booking pts @ 9/1

Moore & Pikk & Teniste YC @ 190/1

Harry Wilson to assist 1+ goals @ 11/2

Wales to score 2+ goals, 5+ Wales corners & 20+ Estonia booking pts @ 3/1

Followed you Wullie with:

Gavi/Pogba/Laporte YC + Over 5 match corners @ 90/1. 

Always worth adding in small overall match corners into the bet to grab another 5-10/1 value on the bet. Not that Anthony Taylor cared. Atleast the other posted bets came in. 

Yet again screwed over by terrible refereeing. 

BTTS & 4+ corners each team @ 10/3

Mikel Oyarzabal & Kylian Mbappe to assist 1+ goal each @ 33/1

Benzema & Pogba 1+ shot on target each @ 3/1

Superb stuff Wullie, well done.

Unbelievable. She’s just done me out of a healthy chunk of points there.

How an earth has that match finished with more England bookings than Andorran?! 
 

Had a 13/1 bet not come in as I needed 30+ booking points for Andorra (as part of a bet builder).

- No booking for a hack at HT

- No booking, let alone a red, for a clear elbow which the ref acknowledged she saw.

- No booking for the foul for the penalty.

That’s then ignoring all the constant fouls (20 fouls given, another 20 where play went on). Just unbelievable.

Mind we feared this would happen. Just shows how important the ref assigned to the match is.

No idea how Andorra only have 1 player booked in that first half. Unfortunately the ref missed the last play as she was talking to Foden. Rubio completely wound up by Sancho. 

Moldova vs Denmark

Rata & Armas YC / Over 3 match corners @ 33/1

3 minutes ago, Nate said:

Wary of the ref in the England game, she has shown one card in her last two internationals. Prefer the Hungary/Austria game for cards. 
 

Nego card - 7/2 Betfair/PP

 

Thrown him in some small stakes trebles and the 4-fold with Orban, Gjasula and Ismajli. 

I'm also slightly wary of this, I think she might let a few more go compared to the other ref's for the international matches. 

BTTS & 4+ corners each team @ 11/4

5+ corners each team & 20+ booking points each team @ 15/2

Kevin De Bruyne to have 1+ shot on target from outside the area @ 2/1

Azpi at 7/1 was a bizarre price. Hopefully the Italians continue to get wound up and Di Lorenzo and co. follow Bonucci's lead. That 2nd Spain goal was a killer though, hopefully they don't just control the tempo in the 2nd half. 1st half was a great watch mind. 

I expect this game to be low-scoring with Spain dominating possession but not doing an awful lot with it, with Italy defending fairly easily and hitting on the break. Not great for bets. I'll monitor the match to see how it develops. Nothing placed pre-match. 

Zaha & Castagne YC / 4+ corners Palace @ 55/1

Skipp & Mings YC / 5+ corners Spurs @ 25/1

Zaha 1+ SOT / Vardy 2+ SOT @ 7/1

Palace 2+ goals / Leicester 20+ booking points @9/2

Two good referees for cards in the Palace/Leicester and Spurs/Villa matches. Both matches should also be fairly even/end to end type matches. 

Aubameyang 2+ shots on target & Maupay 1+ shot on target @ 5/1

Aubameyang, Saka & Smith-Rowe 1+ shots on target each @ 6/1

6 minutes ago, Nate said:

It’ll continue to drift but him to get the 3rd and be booked is now over 100/1 - you’d imagine there’s some value there.

 

@bovril taken your card picks?

Godfrey @14/1

Townsend @25/1

All United attacks coming down their side.