The College Dropout

Disagree. Motivation: Best path to actualise stated goals. Interpretation of the rules will go to independent courts. That’s why Leicester won their appeal yesterday. The ruling was that the laws are actually poorly written in areas. And Leicester beat the case. Chelsea have found numerous loopholes. I’m guessing they will continue to find more. - super long contracts (bad idea) - selling infrastructure to themselves - Bullshit FFP transfer swapsie pioneer that we ended up using in a bad way. The first 2 have been closed. But there’s no closing the third. With enough will and resources, these laws can be circumvented to help us. PIF could continually buy players from a random European club for SA league for wild figures with an informal agreement they spend x amount on Newcastle players. There is still nothing blocking us loaning players from Saudi clubs iirc.

Again, we had by far the worst deal from those transfers. The players the other clubs got are either useful players, young with a chance to retain or add value or young enough to be used for another FFP transfer next year or the year after. We should get a Saudi PIF club to sign a random Ligue 1 club player for £45m, then get that club to sign our GK for £22m. Should be enough to cover wages and leave a little in the bank for the Ligue 1 club. In fact - if the actual transfer is already in the clear FFP wise then £20m is his FMV and we should get a Saudi club to buy him for the same figure. The lads book cost is probably more then Fabian Schar or the same amount as Joelintons wages. It’s not an insignificant amount.

All 6 clubs doing those dodgy transfers would’ve been in FFP breach without it. We knew this.

Liverpool and Spurs owners aren’t in it to win the CL or compete with Real Madrid. Neither are Man U’s owners. They are in it to make money.

I don’t think Leicester could challenge the legality of FFP - they signed up for it. At least it wouldn’t impact the points deduction or relegation. We needed Leeds back up with Leicester. There’s 6 PL clubs right up against FFP. We need more.

A points deduction would’ve been better for negative FFP PR/news. Anymore than 3 points would likely send Leicester back down to the Champ where another points deduction would await them.

UEFA rules will remain a massive issue.

Last point - there’s this idea that PIF are doing absolutely everything possible to generate revenue but are being blocked by the slick foils of the PL and the big money 5. And I just don’t believe it. They’ve put up bigger barriers. But the barriers aren’t impregnable if PIF were determined and motivated to circumvent them asap with a bit of nous. But they don’t seem determined to do that atm.

Ok so you think PIF need to bend the rules and spend? Maximise every revenue stream possible? Which - they don’t seem to be willing to do. The Forest keeper was a last minute tactic to be FFP compliant. Which is why we got the worst deal of all the FFP transfers. It wasn’t part of a strategic approach for FFP circumvention like it clearly is for Villa and Chelsea who have done it multiple times with young players they can re-trade. Broadly I kind of agree with you. Except I think a Dortmund, RB, Souped up Brighton model can work while we make the academy one of the best in the country. But that’s a 3-10 year plan. In that time we should have a new stadium too. If we don’t do that aye we either need to spend vast sums somehow (through FFP hacks). Or we do the last thing you suggested which is a suped up West Ham. If that’s the approach aye it needs to be communicated too. That’s my least favoured approach.

I don’t understand your point. We can’t do a Chelsea, Blackburn or City because of FFP. We can only get closer to spending vast sums if we bend the FFP rules (multi club, creative accounting, a gazillion small sponsors). PIF dont seem willing to do this. The other option is more organic growth that allows us to raise revenues and commercial deals in line with FMV. We spend what we can as the rules want us too. We’ve spent our initial big investment.

I don’t think the club would communicate goals higher than what they are discussing privately. The opposite is more likely. It ramps pressure in the media and with fans when they apparently don’t believe it. The other messaging is also consistent with needing immediate success. ‘Improve the first team’ and the difficulty finding that profile. If the profile of player we need is proven Schar/Botman level or better - yeh it’s going to be difficult. Even if they blame someone else - the core strategy of needing immediate over performance would remain. Any DOF would need to sign ready made players. Any CEO would need to prioritise short-term success.

By organic growth I simply mean maximising revenues and league finishes without FFP hacks. Spurs qualified for 4 straight CLs. If we do that we’ll challenge for the title because our owners ambition and what that would mean for revenues. Spurs wage budget to revenue is one of the lowest in the league. They are not trying to win the league or trophies. But are we going to £70m signings our way to sustained Europe? While our revenue is £100m short of Spurs? Spurs wouldn’t even sign a £70m CB.

Spurs and more recently Liverpool. Around the time we faltered under Shepherd Spurs started signing a bunch of youngsters. Carrick £3m > £16m. Bale £10m > £100m. Modric £15m > £40m. Berbatov. Keane. Walker. I can keep going. Liverpool used the Torres money on multiple players including Suarez. Coutinho & Suarez funded the final conquering side. We can’t splash the big cash as much as 6 other teams. It will require over performance or their under performance to get continued top 6 finishes. So I don’t understand how we can win if we go big money signing for big money signing without tremendous luck.

Likewise if you have the 7th (and maybe 8th) highest budget - it’s not a travesty in management to finish as low as 8th. 7th doesn’t guarantee you European football. So for Europe to be the aim we need to aim to finish 6th or win a cup. IMO that’s too high a minimum requirement. Of a 25 man squad, 12 are not top 6 quality. It’s not reasonable to expect that team to finish 6th. Even with Guehi it’s a full backup team well below the standard.

And maybe it’s a case of.. if we can get Europe 4 times out of 5, we can justify the big sponsors. So get the results now to unlock it. But that plan requires A LOT of luck.

I think the club think we should see regular European football already. Trying to sign Marc Guehi is a sign of urgency from the club. Id take a promising kid from France for half. Give him 2-3 years to develop. Clearly the management don’t think they have that time.

This is me supporting Howe btw. The only way targeting proven PL players makes sense is if he’s been told he needs to qualify for Europe next season. Then he can’t take risks. Then he can’t prioritise developing talent.

Im not advocating for cheating. Im advocating that our first team demands align with what the club can do financially. If we build organically, we need a football team focussing on youth development - academy and transfers. £60m+ transfers for CBs dont make sense. We probably won’t qualify for Europe every year as we give playing time to high potential youngsters. If we want Europe every season as a minimum from now, we need the money to invest in quality players for the first team succeeding straight away. And keeping most of our best players. The only we can do that is if we push and bend the rules to generate maximum PSR headroom imo. PIF don’t seem willing to do this yet. Im happy for either. It just needs to be sustainable and realistic.

Our owners, CEO have not come close to so publicly challenging FFP in this way. They could be manoeuvring behind the scenes. But I’ll credit it when there’s proof.

It’s not their fault. But they shouldn’t expect the team to consistently qualify for Europe. We should act like an RB team or souped up Brighton. The noise from the club and the summer action suggests we need immediate results. That would require tremendous success and luck to be sustainable if we aren’t going to find FFP hacks. City Group was founded the same year FFP was introduced to the PL. ‘oh you think you can stop us? Multi club.’ They were bought pre-FFP and still lied and cheated their way to the top. I’m talking about priorities and mindset.

Not blaming them. Just trying to understand their position, goals and strategy. We are the most restricted club in the world by FFP. But we’ve been less publicly critical of it than Aston Villa, Everton and Forest. I don’t know what the club is doing behind closed doors, so cant comment. Not heard anything significant in the last 3 years mind. re hiring people - yeh that’s all great BAU. Man City and Chelsea have likely committed fraud to circumvent financial restrictions. Abramovic was secretly funding Vitesse, so they could loan Chelsea players and develop them. Man City have setup a multi club model which largely is there to make Man City number 1. Hundreds of millions on other ventures - to support Man City. Ratcliffe is trying to use his influence to make the local government fund the stadium renovations. Man City have seemingly bought the Manchester Council themselves. Do you get the distinction I’m drawing? PIF have invested in us tremendously as an investment. But it’s not City using every loophole imaginable to be financially compliant - and then some. It’s a different mindset. It’s not a criticism. It should inform our expectations. Play by the rules to the T, we will only grow revenues so fast, will need to sell our best players at some point soon. To succeed that way will take a long-term view which requires a focus on talent development and not immediate results.

Sorry for such a long response. My ultimate biggest concern (and in the grand scheme it’s a small concern) is that PIF are demanding owners but don’t open all possible doors. In the short term, I think it’s difficult to consistently qualify for Europe while our revenues and infrastructure is what it is.

That’s cash of which they have plenty to spare. I’m talking the will and expertise to do whatever it takes to get us to the top. That’s not throwing money at a problem alone, there’s desire and expertise above and beyond that. You mentioned the stadium and training ground, almost 3 years - no concrete plans. I said this in another thread about Abu Dhabi: - Likely cheated financial rules, hid it, won’t cooperate with authorities. - Multi club model to circumvent FFP. In terms of staff costs and player revenues from sales it’s all optimised to help City with FFP and move talent around - Pursued legal action against authorities for rules they don’t like - Their entire football operation is setup to maximise the success of Man City. Joined up this joint to ensure that happens. PIF seem happy to abide by the financial rules. They don’t even heavily leverage the ‘circumvension’ techniques others have. That I can blame on Staveley and/or Eales. Don’t have a multi club model. And barely leverage the other clubs they own. No joined up thinking. Minteh FMV proven at around £40m, could’ve sold him to a PIF club then loaned him back. They could be Deportivo or Tenerife and use those clubs for talent development and FFP circumvention. Far easier sell to Almiron, Wilson and Trippier than moving to Saudi. Likely other football operations are their priority. Throwing money for them is easy. But Anu Dhabi have done a lot more than that. It’s a mindset and priority. I agree they will spend the ‘maximum allowed’. But that doesn’t mean they are doing everything possible to make us a success. You said it ‘small investment in a large portfolio’. In life some things are absolute priorities and you will explore every nook and cranny to exploit, bend rules maybe even break them to succeed. Others you do the best you can and the cards fall where they will. And you’re right - what Abu Dhabi have done, what Abramovic did is above and beyond reasonable expectation. TLDR: PIF are not proving to be ‘success by any means’ the way Abu Dhabi have and continue to do so.

Same notion applies to us becoming #1. PIF are not committed to us the same way Abu Dhabi are too City or Roman was to Chelsea. At least to the point that both of those owners likely cheated to get their clubs to the top and stay. And built networks to ensure it.

The European qualification piece which Eales has said multiple times is overly ambitious given our FFP situation. We can have the 7th biggest spend. Maybe 8th because Villa can leverage their academy. 7-8 doesn’t qualify for Europe every season. And that requires immediate results. We can’t spend £30m on teenagers that aren’t ready to start. We can’t even take too many Minteh, Osolu type signings. So if I’m Howe and I need European football. I need players to hit the ground running. So PL experience makes sense. Don’t give me a 20-year-old I need to develop, I’ll get sacked and he’ll become Solanke 4-years later.