The College Dropout

You are right that the stats lack detail. But equally - they lack detail for every other player. His heading stats are similar to Schar. Schar’s defensive heading has long been one of his weaknesses. We can talk about all the statistical metrics known and unknown - but we all know that. There’s nuance but like.. Andy Carroll was/is good in the air. In a team built to his strengths - you would fancy him to target Guehi for example. You can compare any passing stats of Guehi to his partner Anderson or our lads. The penetration of his passes isn’t particularly impressive. And again - this is based off what I’ve seen primarily. Likewise, Hall passing stats are impressive… because Hall is an impressive passer. Highish volume, highish accuracy, high progression. You can see boshes passes through the lines. I think the bigger point is that our recruitment team may be prioritising other stats, potential, attributes on and off field.

So you’ve agreed. I never said he was bad at passing. But you said I did. I mentioned progressive passing twice and bad passing 0. Please stop twisting my words in the future. Ta. Ive agreed with you that he has the potential to be excellent at carrying the ball forward. He does it well now but he doesn’t do it to the level Schar (or Anderson) but that might be tactical as you say. I think he has the ability. He didn’t do it loads for England either but I would expect Howe to bring it out more. From what I’ve seen of him at Palace and England, and the stats. He looks super composed, good with his feet, tidy passer, quick. And not to mention a leader and a good egg. For me - for our team - at £60m I would hope for more physical dominance or aggression and/or more impact on the ball. I’ve not seen that to date. Doesnt mean it’s not possible or other things are more important or that I’ve missed it. For £60m I would hope for a level above or the potential to be a level above Schar/Botman. I personally dont see it. You do. Cool. Agree to disagree and hope you’re right.

This is why I think Tarie is a WUM. I’ve just acknowledged that point. This happened several times in the Minteh thread. Rather than insult them or mock them. I just stopped responding.

You are 100% right and I’m not suggesting ‘aerial win %’ or progressive passing is the be all and end all. I tend to start these posts ‘I think’ because it’s my opinion not a fact. I’ve said numerous times, heading might not be all that important. He could get better at it. There’s lots of other factors into the signing and I might be over emphasising the elements that I like the look of from a defender. I find people want to argue my opinion. They think my opinion is wrong eg he is worth £60m therefore everything I’m saying is wrong and has no merit. Then if I show merit (stats) just mock it - stats are boring, stats are wrong etc. I think Tarie is a WUM. But I’ve fully accepted that Guehi’s pace is a significant advantage to us as they’ve mentioned. Once we replace Pope we would have a back 5 that’s tremendously comfortable on the ball. These things might be game changers for us. I don’t dismiss other people’s genuine ideas.

I agree long term I like it more. But Botman isn’t likely to feature heavily this season so presents a potential issue in the short term. I also think Howe likes a big defence, so it makes it harder for Hall who I’m a big fan of. this one is more speculation. I generally prefer both CB to be good in the air like the best sides in the division. Some of which have found quality CBs for much less than £60m. Granted quick, good in the air, composed, strong, brings it out, penetrative passer etc. is a unicorn. There’s trade offs everywhere.

@KaKa I said Guehi looks comfortable on the ball but not an progressive passer. I then shared stats that show evidence that he’s not a progressive passer. I like that he distributes off both feet though. You then accused me of calling him a ‘bad passer’. Show me where I said that. I didn’t. You lied on me. You seem to think because I said he’s not a progressive passer = he’s a bad passer. And that if I think he can pass with both feet = he’s a progressive passer or something? It’s all v. binary and basic. I don’t mean to be rude but you are either heavily biased or incapable of nuanced thought.

The club definitely have access to far more sophisticated data than I do and it might prove me wrong about Guehi’s aerial ability. 100%. Not acting like there’s no room for error but it’s the best data that I have. The dozen+ clubs with greater pull than us also have access to more sophisticated data than me, why aren’t they in for him? They also had sophisticated data on Gordon, Bruno, Isak - why didn’t they sign them with their greater pull? If your point is ‘the club have better data than you, therefore your particular point here is invalid’. I think that’s a weak argument. There’s a whole multitude that goes into signings. All end up being judgment calls where in the end people get things right and wrong all the time.

I dunno mate. here’s Jarrod Branthwaite. Gabriel during his Lille days Laporte and Otamendi - I wouldn’t have considered Otamendi so good in the air Saliba in Ligue 1 as a kid. The stats from fbref and Whoscored also show compared to other PL CBs wor Guehi ranks towards the bottom for headers and winning headers %. We would struggle to find several top quality CBs with worse heading success. Schar might be one of them funnily enough. I haven’t paid close enough attention to him to know if he’s always putting attackers off in other ways that other defenders don’t. It’s possible. Also think heading ability is less important these days.

Stats are only boring when you don’t like the outcomes. If his stats mirrored VVD it would be celebrated and used as a reason to get further excited. I would stfu too.

Aye. So between now and then all we have is speculation about what he could potentially do and how he fits. I’ll continue to share my ideas - sharing my logic as best I can with any evidence to support that I can. Id appreciate if you engaged with the ideas in good faith for what they are or just ignored them. And not lie on my name to fit your narrative like you have.

Aye and Schar is considered a little poor in the air. VVD has been the standard over the last half decade. This is a small snapshot (9 games or so) but I think it’s fairly typical of him at his best:

He does have pace that’s a massive strength. He’s going to play with Schar at CB this season ideally - not Burn or Botman. That’s weak in the air. Also makes it more likely the best technical LB won’t start in favour of a better aerial option. I do think more teams are moving away. From big strikers which helps. Perhaps we play even higher and more aggressive this season too. Aye or a marquee signing. Our last marquee signing hasn’t gone so well but the one before that has been blockbuster.

it’s more of an issue this season with Botman out. You assume he’ll start alongside Schar this season and that’s a weak duo in the air. I suspect Burn or Kelly will start at LB at the beginning of this season for height to compensate. When Botman is back fully - it’s less of an issue.

No I said he wasn’t a progressive passer. Last season that is a statistical fact not an opinion. I think he looks very comfortable on the ball, under pressure, short passes v. accurate. But anyone that watches Palace once or twice will see Anderson is the defender that plays the balls into the attackers. From the same website I showed you Guehi’s stats vs Anderson’s. It backed up that across the sample base Guehi is not a progressive passer and he doesn’t win many headers either. I also said from my eye test, Guehi could carry the ball more than he does because he has the ability. Performance in the past doesn’t mean that performance will be the same going forward - especially in a different team. Gordon for example, has improved every aspect of his game. But do I think Guehi has performed to a £60m level? No. That’s my eye test and it’s supported in the data I have access too. Could he prove himself a bargain at £60m for us? Most definitely. He’s clearly talented and is regarded highly in the game for his ability and his mentality. He seems a leader. Has pace. Comfortable on the ball. But I dont think he’s physically dominant enough, or progressive enough to be our marquee defender. But People that get paid a lot of money to judge players get these things wrong - me a casual observer of Guehi is even more likely to be wrong. But this is a forum so I’m sharing my opinion and supporting them with stats where I can. I was wrong about Gordon (Also right about Pope, Bruno, Botman etc.). I’ll be wrong again but my reasoning is clear, logical and usually supported with data, if it’s not I’ll hold my hands up. It’s part of the reason I’m good at FPL. I make decisions based on coherent logic from the eye test and the underlying stats.

I hadn’t noticed using both feet when passing. That’s good and cool. He’s still not a progressive passer. Everything I’ve said about his ability I’ve backed up with why it’s my opinion and stats. He could very well end up showing he’s worth every penny and more.

Just sharing my opinions. Everyone has seen Marc Guehi play but I’ve not claimed to be an expert. I still don’t think he’s worth £60m for the reasons I’ve already shared. But clearly he’s a talented player with positive attributes. My opinions are usually fairly nuanced. Rarely is it ‘lad is shit’ or ‘lad is great’ if I make a comment. If we are about to unleash a FFP hack, I love it. If he’s the CB meant to take us to the next level and taking a massive chunk of our transfer budget - I don’t love it based from what I’ve seen of him. Lads like Kelly and the striker - I’ve barely spoken about their ability. Never noticed them playing.

Watched some comps. I like his two footedness when distributing. Easily play RCB or LCB.

I don’t even have an opinion on Kelly. I assumed he was going to compete with Hall at LB and offer a similar profile to Burn but with pace. But I don’t know much about him, not looked him up tremendously.

Again I like Marc Guehi. He improves us. And his potential may be vast. But from my eye test. And the stats that I’ve seen - I don’t think he’s worth £60m.

vs Which one is the £60m defender?

Agree with your second point. If he was so great at passing and carrying the ball - it would be more evident in the stats imo. Again eye test. He looks super comfortable on the ball. Good under the pressure and looks like he could be encouraged to bring it out more. But Anderson always looked the progressive passer.

No idea. Probably not. From their size and what I've seen of them - I thought Schar, Guehi (and Konsa) weren't the best in the air at winning defensive duels. So this just supports what i observed. I thought Schar had improved in that aspect, he is aggressive in general including the air. And maybe he has but it didn't take this to show me that he's not an aerially dominant CB. Likewise for Guehi. For a big lad - I don't even think Botman is THAT good in the air. Lascelles is the best at the club in the air and arguably our worst CB - so maybe it's not that important but for £60m I need some standout attributes. The other stats are troubling for Guehi too. It's not obvious what he's meant to be really good at. Schar you can see his ball progression via passing and dribbles are among the highest in the stats. That is the Schar USP. What's the Guehi USP? From what I've seen it's pace and comfort on the ball under pressure. Need a bit more than that for £60m imo.

Fab heading stats a lot closer to my previous perception of him as fairly poor in the air for CB. I don’t love those Guehi stats I’ll be so honest. Deffo don’t love them as a pair. I don’t feel like you can play Hall alongside them this season.

Which is why I hear it