Memphis

Everyone pointing out that we're dealing with a small and unique sample size is correct - that data isn't intended to be definitive by any stretch. It is intended to note a potential problem. Unfortunately a football season itself is a small sample size of a player or manager career, but we have to use the data we have. So by the time you find that the data is definitive, it's much too late to really do anything with it that season. It's flawed but the sizable changes potentially point to a problematic trend. At the very least, it's worth keeping an eye on.

What's very strange to me has been the dropoff in home performances. Though we have 7 points from 12, we have not been able to consistently play well or control opponents the way we did in the last two seasons. One interesting stat I've dug up - we are last in the league by a decent margin in home OPPDA (opponent passes per defensive action), meaning that we do not maintain any control of the ball before opponent pressing or tackling disrupts our play. That number has dropped by 35 percent in the last two seasons. It's a sign of the lack of control we show these days - and the poor state of our passing in general. The same is true of our non-penalty xG numbers - 19th at home (4.54 NPxG over 4 matches). We're sort of OKish away and quite rotten at home. League NPxG at Home: 2022-23: 1st 2023-24: 2nd 2024-25: 19th (through 9 league matches) League NPxG differential at home: 2022-23: 1st 2023-24: 2nd (by .05 to Liverpool) 2024-25: 15th So while we can talk about strikers not performing, missing chances, etc - the reality is that we're not creating anything at home. Not like we used to. I don't know specifically what to point to but the dropoff in these figures should be setting alarm bells off in Howe's office.

I wanted us to use Guehi as a Stones-esque CB/6, I think he's got the perfect profile to do that. We desperately need a platform to build from that isn't Bruno. He needs to be able to get more forward and make incisive passes into the final third.

This is what baffles me. He's obviously a very smart man, he looks at the data, he scrutinises the performances intensely, and yet he comes up with...this. It's odd. We are sticking to principles that no longer exist within our group.

Been a big supporter of Howe since he's arrived and up until this summer, I think he's gotten most everything right. He's done a phenomenal job changing the culture and getting everything moving in the right direction. A thoroughly good and competent man. BUT It's all gone very stale and he doesn't seem to have any other way of playing or managing to change things around. Loyalty turns to complacency quickly. To whatever extent you want to blame him for the summer, that was a huge problem as well. This is becoming a crisis. We need significant change and soon, or we will need a new manager by the end of February.

That is an absolutely first class article from Samuel. Brilliantly written and expertly argued.

I would very much disagree. While the PL can claim the structure of the APT rules are intact, the changes in what is considered Fair Market Value are massive. When interest-free shareholder loans are marked at normal rates and added to the FMV database, and when we have access to all the deals associated with that database, we will have much more leeway to do deals with Saudi partners at higher values. That doesn't even take into consideration future rulings and inevitable lawsuits.

Premier League statement is just their way of attempting to spin the ruling. Ultimately it opens up doors for enormous lawsuits from teams badly affected by the unfair and improper rules, namely us and City. Additionally, it undercuts one of the key frameworks of the entire PSR/FFP idea, which will be manipulated by us and others in all likelihood. So yes, in spite of what the Premier League claims, this is a rather large deal.

It is the one area that American sports get much more right. Leagues have specific salary caps that are agreed to by all parties, both clubs and players. Collectively bargained so as to avoid this sort of litigation. Ultimately that is where the Premier League will have to go if they genuinely want to solve this issue.

It's funny to me how the Premier League has fucked this so badly that they look like bigger shitheads than the Saudis and the UAE.

Of all the games we've ever played, that was surely one of them

In all three away matches this year, we've trailed at the half. We have not scored a goal in the first half away from home. We have the third-worst xG differential (-0.61), behind only Brentford and Ipswich Town. We have only won the xG battle once all season, and that was against Wolves...barely. We have the third-fewest touches in the opponent penalty area while allowing the second-most touches in the penalty area. In spite of that, we have only lost once - and yeah, we perhaps could have snatched a point against Fulham. But the underlying numbers are telling the story of a team that isn't creating enough good chances, isn't stopping opponents from creating enough good chances, and has relied on luck, goalkeeping, and blockbuster goals outside the box to win matches. That cannot be sustained. So now the onus is on Howe to make some significant changes. No one should be safe from being dropped. We have used the fewest number of players in the PL this year (19 total); whether we have enough depth to play more is debatable but we already have a midfield that looks tired. I have backed and will continue to back Howe, I think he's a brilliant manager and has been a huge blessing to the club. Still, there are enough significant warning signs that some major changes are needed before our form takes a huge dip.

Wouldn't be averse to the unprecedented QUINTUPLE SUB at the half. We are absolutely shocking.

It was a lovely interview and he does seem like a very sweet guy. But fuck man the production is bad. So many cuts, I guess to get around Sandro's English? Then you have some random agent/producer/whoever getting a toe in the shot. On top of that, the room could not look more depressing. I dunno. Get your shit together, Sky.

We're definitely due for a 30-shot game where we lose 0-1 on a horrible penalty decision. I would say we can't keep this up but maybe we can. Surely we'll find the right mix and push on. Hard to believe we've played well for maybe 1/4 of the match time, if that, and we've got 10 points from 12 and are sitting third. Winning is a skill. Good teams find ways to win and bad teams find ways to lose.