Milburn

I disagree. Plenty of young players choose development and minutes over the biggest badge available. Haaland could have joined Juventus as a teenager but chose Salzburg because it offered a clearer pathway and a better next step in his development. That’s basically the entire logic behind the stepping-stone model. Go somewhere you’ll play, develop, make mistakes, improve and then make the big move later. And Newcastle doesn’t yet have an outstanding track record in that area. We had one of the oldest line-ups in the Premier League last season and a manager who has consistently shown loyalty to the older guard. Obviously if Real Madrid come calling for an established star it’s different. But for an 18-year-old prospect, the biggest club isn’t always the smartest choice.

The injury prone youngster?

I don’t really disagree from a Newcastle fan’s perspective. I’m looking at it from the perspective of an 18-year-old and his agent. Brighton can point to a conveyor belt of young players who arrived with potential and left as elite-level footballers. That’s an established track record. Newcastle can point to Isak, Gordon, Tonali, Hall and Tino, but most of those were already established high-level players when they arrived. (And Hall still has Dan Burn breathing down his neck for that left-back spot.) The question a young player asks isn’t “which is the bigger club?” It’s often “which club is most likely to make me the next £80m player?” And right now Brighton have a pretty compelling answer to that.

I'm a bit surprised by how many people seem to assume Newcastle automatically has an advantage over Brighton when it comes to signing young players. If I were an 18-year-old prospect, I'd be looking very closely at Brighton's track record of identifying talent, developing players, giving them opportunities and then helping them move to the very top of the game. Until we prove we can do that consistently, I don't think it's remotely shocking that a young player might choose Brighton instead.

The question is whether what he did in earlier seasons should outweigh what we've watched over the last 12 months. And it's also worth remembering that the owners themselves have helped create huge expectations through their stated ambitions for 2030, so it's hardly surprising that supporters judge progress against those targets. And I don't think expecting better than 12th after spending over £800m makes someone a "rat fan". I'd argue that's a pretty normal expectation for a club that supposedly wants to compete towards the top end of the table. The irony is that people keep talking as if critics expect constant improvement every season. Most of us would have happily accepted 6th, 7th or 8th. It's finishing 12th while looking increasingly stale and directionless over the last 12 months that has people worried.

Every debate ends up attracting a few extremists. But I also think some people are going too far in the other direction and dismissing any criticism as madness. You don't need to believe Howe has ruined the project, driven all the players away or scared off sponsors to conclude that a 12th-place finish after spending over £800m is nowhere near good enough. There is a perfectly rational middle ground between "Howe is destroying the club" and "nothing to see here, give him another season". Part of the concern is that he increasingly looks like a manager who has been figured out by almost every opponent he comes up against, and nearly every match seems to leave us with more questions than answers. A lot of us sit squarely in that middle ground. Personally, though, I can't bring myself to look forward to next season because I simply can't see Howe turning this around. In fact, I'd be willing to bet a significant amount of money that he'll be gone before Christmas.

That probably says quite a lot about the direction of the two clubs over the last 12 months. One club looks at Lewis Hall and sees a player worth building around for the next decade. The other is debating whether Dan Burn should still be starting at left back.

Back to his best there

He was even worse

Correct decision. Never a penalty.

I agree that Rodgers is probably the strongest example of the three. On Pochettino, I agree the Champions League run complicates things, but I'd still argue it masked a decline that was already visible domestically. The final was an incredible achievement, but their league form throughout 2019 was nowhere near the level people associated with peak Spurs under him. As for Howe at Bournemouth, that's fair. The league positions themselves don't scream decline. My point is more that when Bournemouth eventually did hit a wall, Howe didn't find a way out of it. The trajectory continued all the way to relegation. Ultimately I'm not saying Howe is guaranteed to fail next season. I'm saying history suggests managers in this situation are far more likely to continue the decline than suddenly reverse it. That's why I'm struggling to share the optimism. And to flip it around: can you actually name many managers who were on a clear downward trajectory for an extended period and then genuinely reversed it? Not just a brief uptick, but a sustained turnaround. Because that's really the point here. If iyou're arguing Howe will buck that trend, I'd be interested to hear which managers you're using as examples of that happening

Pochettino finished 4th and reached a Champions League final with Spurs. Sounds great. What gets forgotten is that Spurs took roughly 25 points from their final 19 league games that season. The decline had already started. He got the next season and was sacked a few months later. Rodgers finished 5th, 5th and won the FA Cup with Leicester. Then came an 8th-place finish and a drop from around 66 points to 52. He got another season and was sacked with Leicester in the relegation zone. And then there's Howe himself at Bournemouth. 9th, then 12th, then 14th, then relegation. Once the decline started, he never managed to reverse it.

Of course the budgets are different. Newcastle shouldn't be judged by Liverpool's standards in absolute terms. But both clubs have underperformed massively relative to expectations. Liverpool were expected to challenge for the title. Newcastle were expected to be competing for the top 5-6. Both failed spectacularly, yet only one club allowed that to have consequences. And if we're going to keep hearing about the 58-game season, it's worth remembering that Aston Villa played 56 games, won the Europa League and still qualified for the Champions League through a 4th-place finish. We absolutely don't have Liverpool's budget. We do, however, have a budget that should be capable of finishing a lot higher than 12th.

Expecting accountability after a 12th-place finish isn’t being whiny or disrespectful. And history isn’t exactly on Howe’s side. Managers who oversee a prolonged negative trend very rarely suddenly produce a renaissance the following season. More often than not, the decline continues and the club ends up making the change six months later anyway. I’m convinced the owners have made a huge mistake in keeping Howe this summer, but would be happy to be proven wrong.

Arne Slot getting sacked puts Newcastle's stance on Howe into perspective. Different clubs, different standards and different levels of ruthlessness unfortunately.

I’m genuinely pleased for him. Whatever people think of him, moving to Barcelona is a huge achievement for any player. Barcelona is unquestionably a bigger club than Newcastle and one of the giants of world football. I'm surprised he was on their list. I’m also glad the move appears to have been handled professionally by all parties. There’s been no public drama, no forcing an exit, and both Gordon’s camp and the club seem to have conducted themselves properly throughout. He gave us some good moments and played a big part in getting the club back into Europe. That said, I don’t think he leaves as one of the great Newcastle left wingers. For me, players like Ginola and Robert generated a level of excitement and magic that Gordon never quite reached. Good player, good servant, and a fantastic move for him. I wish him well. It’ll be fascinating to see how he performs in a team surrounded by players who are significantly better than the ones he’s been playing with at Newcastle.

Aston Villa played 56 games, won the Europa League and still finished in the Champions League places. At some point the excuses stop sounding convincing and start sounding like deflection.

I 100% expect both Murphy and Dan Burn to be in the starting lineup first match next season

I fear there’s something in that. If this club was truly ruthless and relentlessly ambitious purely from a football perspective, I struggle to believe a season like this just gets waved through with “let’s go again next year”.

Fair enough, but Howe also has to take responsibility for us becoming so absurdly dependent on one single player. Brighton, Bournemouth and Brentford all lost multiple key players and still managed to finish above us this season. I’m interested to see which players get linked with Newcastle this summer. Whether there are actually any new ideas at all, or whether it’s just more of the same with physicality and power being the main focus again.

Out of genuine curiosity, is that based on football reasons or mainly gratitude for last season’s trophy? Because the reality is: 1) There’s no visible evolution on the pitch anymore. If anything, things have completely stagnated. 2) History from other clubs and managers shows that genuinely awful seasons almost never suddenly turn into a renaissance the following year. Usually the decline just continues. 3) Perhaps most importantly, there are basically zero signs right now suggesting Howe is about to become the exception to that rule.

I’m so tired of hearing Europe and the number of games used as an excuse for this fiasco, as if competing on multiple fronts is somehow impossible after spending well over £800m on players. We’ve played two more games than Aston Villa this season. Difference is they won the Europa League AND qualified for next season’s Champions League through finishing 4th in the league. Meanwhile we’re almost being told that 12th place was some unavoidable act of fate because of “everything that happened”. On some things, Howe is genuinely starting to irritate me on Alan Pardew / Steve Bruce levels.

Not even close. The ones that think big clubs will come knocking on his door the day he leaves Newcastle are in for a surprise.

Top 6-8 is probably the natural level for us right now. But my point still stands. No other fanbase with our trajectory over the last few years, and with the amount of money spent, would broadly accept finishing 12th without huge pressure building on the manager. Most clubs with serious ambitions would be calling for change after a season like this.

If the pattern from previous Premier League managers repeats itself, then the first half of next season will look almost identical to the second half of this one. Managers rarely reverse this kind of decline once the trajectory has clearly turned negative. People can absolutely choose to believe Howe will be the magical exception to the rule, but there are genuinely ZERO signs pointing towards that.