triggs

Haven't been following the club that closely, why do people think they've been quite slow in the transfer market over the summer? Can see it being a Howe decision but just interested if there are any other theories.

He no doubt knows a lot about football but the Zonal Marking guy, Michael Cox seems like a complete knob

Separate the Saudi state public investment fund from the Saudi regime. Aye

Think his game was based on high mental concentration and aggression as he was so good at getting on the end of things and that probably goes when you lose a bit of motivation

What's this in reference to? Apologies for my ignorance

Think Pulisic would be a good signing for Man Utd

Dafuq would Casemiro want to go to Man Utd

Surely the best thing Everton can do is try an exchange for Ziyech/Gallagher/CHO

Good post. Interesting your caveat on player quality at the end, would have thought it was decent in terms of rating attackers obviously in conjunction with the eye test? Think Brentford used it as part of their Moneyball stuff for signing Scott Hogan and Maupay for peanuts and then making a massive profit. Their models were probably more sophisticated than just the basic xG though.

Just as Nunez should have put his chances away. Agree one off games aren't it's ideal use though.

I don't think it overrates the low quality chances. It underrates the hypothetical of a counter attack and the better quality chance that would probably result in but that's impossible to judge

Cristiano Ronaldo has finished below his xG 7 of the last 10 seasons

No. Interestingly there are very few players who actually beat their xG every year, that is to say there are very few consistently good finishers in the world. It's all about getting into the positions to take the shots.

If a chance has a 2% chance on xG that means that based on previous data that kind of shot has resulted in a goal 1 in every 50 times on average. I just don't agree that it's much of a flaw to include the actual probabilities of low value shots in the calculation as low value shots often do actually go in. Fwiw both Nunez and Salah's chances in the first half had higher probabilities than the Crystal Palace goal

xG is cumulative probability, that's the reason for it. If you take 50 shots with a value of 2% each, the probability is that 1 of those will go in and that will be reflected in xG. Of course every time you step up to take a shot that particular shot will still have a 2% chance of going in but over the 50 shots 1 should go in. I don't see how that's really a problem in the interpretation of xG?

xG is based on actual probabilities using past shot data. If you shot 4 times from 30 yards and once from 18 yards I'd imagine the xG would still be lower for the combined 30 yard efforts than the singular 18 yard effort

Aren't you essentially arguing against the basics of probability here? If you have 4 shots each with a 10% chance of going in and 1 shot with a 35% chance of going in you are more likely to score if you had the 4 chances. I also think you are misremembering the game a bit, Nunez had a couple of good chances and Salah also had a good chance in the first half

He's got over 10 goals 3 of his last 4 seasons. Surely a lot more relevant than what he was doing as a teenager

16 campaigns? He playing full seasons since he was 14?

People underrate players they don't like. Zaha has been really good for ages

Zaha knocks the ball past Van Dijk, Van Dijk stands there completely blocking his run, no foul

They have no creativity

I know let the game flow is the order of the day but Robertson just blatantly pushed a Palace player over there

Class by Eze. Onside