huss9 Posted March 3 Share Posted March 3 (edited) 15 minutes ago, TheBrownBottle said: That always looked viable to me - momentum is a thing, and when you’re absolutely shit then signing better players isn’t difficult. You also need a fair bit of luck - three of the sky six being mismanaged to buggery helps, and that situation was never going to last; they’ve got too much money coming in. It’s far harder to get from fifth to first than it is to get from fifteenth to fifth - replacing really good players with even better ones whilst keeping it rolling is what the very, very best can do. Last summer was the first real test of that - and fuck me did we fail badly. Sir Bobby used to say similar when he had us top 4. Edited March 3 by huss9 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Prophet Posted March 3 Share Posted March 3 Not that I think we'll achieve the stated ambition, but he's not saying we'll win the Premier League to be fair. He's probably given himself just about enough wiggle room. For example last season, we had second in our hands with two games to go, but we were never in the title picture. If we'd pulled it off though, I'd imagine a CEO considers that being in the picture. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheBrownBottle Posted March 3 Share Posted March 3 2 minutes ago, The Prophet said: Not that I think we'll achieve the stated ambition, but he's not saying we'll win the Premier League to be fair. He's probably given himself just about enough wiggle room. For example last season, we had second in our hands with two games to go, but we were never in the title picture. If we'd pulled it off though, I'd imagine a CEO considers that being in the picture. That wouldn’t put us ‘in the debate for being the top club in the world’ outside of the Hopkinson household Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Prophet Posted March 3 Share Posted March 3 11 minutes ago, TheBrownBottle said: That wouldn’t put us ‘in the debate for being the top club in the world’ outside of the Hopkinson household I was thinking more the "perennial contenders" comment. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
On the Grid Posted March 3 Share Posted March 3 (edited) 27 minutes ago, TheBrownBottle said: That wouldn’t put us ‘in the debate for being the top club in the world’ outside of the Hopkinson household I mean he's not likely to come out and say we just want to be also rans? Issue is managing the expectations of a thirsty fan based...reckon he got that statement wrong in hindsight. We are still a few years ahead of schedule with investment to come. Still in knockouts of Champions League and in the FA Cup....we went out as Champions in the League Cup. I mean my Dad is the most miserable of miserable fucks when it comes to NUFC but even him in his moments of clarity can appreciate what we have. Edited March 3 by On the Grid Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wolfcastle Posted March 3 Share Posted March 3 (edited) Think this season has knocked the schedule we were on to hell. Squandered a ton of the money were limited to last summer and need a massive overhaul that I cant make a case for happening to get back on track and with a manager that will be under pressure if next season doesn't start well - such has been the level of drop off. Edited March 3 by Wolfcastle Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheBrownBottle Posted March 3 Share Posted March 3 10 minutes ago, On the Grid said: I mean he's not likely to come out and say we just want to be also rans? Issue is managing the expectations of a thirsty fan based...reckon he got that statement wrong in hindsight. We are still a few years ahead of schedule with investment to come. Still in knockouts of Champions League and in the FA Cup....we went out as Champions in the League Cup. I mean my Dad is the most miserable of miserable fucks when it comes to NUFC but even him in his moments of clarity can appreciate what we have. I’ve seen the ‘ahead of schedule’ thing a number of times - what schedule? Does everything think that this much cash would be spent so that the club would sit in midtable for four years? Where should we have been? Genuine question, not being funny Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
SteV Posted March 3 Share Posted March 3 4 minutes ago, TheBrownBottle said: I’ve seen the ‘ahead of schedule’ thing a number of times - what schedule? Does everything think that this much cash would be spent so that the club would sit in midtable for four years? Where should we have been? Genuine question, not being funny 8th Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheBrownBottle Posted March 3 Share Posted March 3 1 minute ago, SteV said: 8th If we’d been 8th every year I think we’d have a different man in the dugout. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheBrownBottle Posted March 3 Share Posted March 3 10 minutes ago, Wolfcastle said: Think this season has knocked the schedule we were on to hell. Squandered a ton of the money were limited to last summer and need a massive overhaul that I cant make a case for happening to get back on track and with a manager that will be under pressure if next season doesn't start well - such has been the level of drop off. The money spent last summer - and the likeliness of no European football - means we are very likely to be up against it under the new SCR rules, i.e. there won’t be much to spend this summer. It’ll be ‘sell to buy’ - and lots of the players who need to be pushed out are not worth very much at this point. I’m not sure that everyone is picking up just how much of a fuck-up those dealings were last year - it’s not simply a case of ‘that was a cock-up, let’s go and get better players’. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
SteV Posted March 3 Share Posted March 3 Just now, TheBrownBottle said: If we’d been 8th every year I think we’d have a different man in the dugout. Obviously nothing is simplistic, but who should we definitely be finishing above every season out the ‘big’ 6 and Villa? Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dokko Posted March 3 Share Posted March 3 2 minutes ago, TheBrownBottle said: The money spent last summer - and the likeliness of no European football - means we are very likely to be up against it under the new SCR rules, i.e. there won’t be much to spend this summer. It’ll be ‘sell to buy’ - and lots of the players who need to be pushed out are not worth very much at this point. I’m not sure that everyone is picking up just how much of a fuck-up those dealings were last year - it’s not simply a case of ‘that was a cock-up, let’s go and get better players’. Need Saudi clubs to bail us out. Pay us back what we paid for the failures. £55m for Wissa in the summer would be the greatest business the club has ever done. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wolfcastle Posted March 3 Share Posted March 3 I predicted 8th this season and think 7th-9th with CL knockouts would have been fine and an objective achieved and whilst its still attainable I worry its knocked us of course generally because of that spend and what it was spent on - we'll be doing well not to be lumbered with those players. It couldn't have been factored in to spend good money to add the sort of players we needed to be shot of for good once this journey began part way through it. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Keegans Export Posted March 3 Share Posted March 3 6 minutes ago, TheBrownBottle said: The money spent last summer - and the likeliness of no European football - means we are very likely to be up against it under the new SCR rules, i.e. there won’t be much to spend this summer. It’ll be ‘sell to buy’ - and lots of the players who need to be pushed out are not worth very much at this point. I’m not sure that everyone is picking up just how much of a fuck-up those dealings were last year - it’s not simply a case of ‘that was a cock-up, let’s go and get better players’. Aren't the SCR different for clubs in (70%) and out (85%) of Europe? Rough calculation but 85% of £300m turnover and 70% of £360m turnover are almost identical. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheBrownBottle Posted March 3 Share Posted March 3 Just now, SteV said: Obviously nothing is simplistic, but who should we definitely be finishing above every season out the ‘big’ 6 and Villa? 8th is a minimum - we comfortably outspend the rest of the division. 8th is par. Thats not the same as doing a good or even great job. I know 8th comes from ‘8th highest wage bill’ - but there’s an awful lot of semantics around that (we also have the 7th highest, but hey ho). For example - Villa sign Tielemans on a free - rumoured to be on £180k pw. We sign Ramsay - rumoured to be on £100k pw. So our wage bill for Ramsay (if the numbers are correct) is almost half that of Tielemans. But Villa paid nothing in transfer fees, and we spent over £40m on Ramsay. So from a wage bill perspective, we’re better off - but not from a PSR perspective. Howe has done an excellent job up to this season by outperforming that outgoings cap - but on the flip, we’ve spent a lot more than plenty of the teams above us, who also actually look coached and managed this season. We’ve played more games than them, but we didn’t look better than them when we hadn’t. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheBrownBottle Posted March 3 Share Posted March 3 1 minute ago, Keegans Export said: Aren't the SCR different for clubs in (70%) and out (85%) of Europe? Rough calculation but 85% of £300m turnover and 70% of £360m turnover are almost identical. They are - but our wages & amortised fees are above £300m at this point. 9 minutes ago, Dokko said: Need Saudi clubs to bail us out. Pay us back what we paid for the failures. £55m for Wissa in the summer would be the greatest business the club has ever done. Getting three-quarters of it back would be enough to balance it - and I reckon it would be arguable. We’d run afoul of UEFA’s regs, but not the PL’s. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
SteV Posted March 3 Share Posted March 3 1 minute ago, TheBrownBottle said: 8th is a minimum - we comfortably outspend the rest of the division. 8th is par. Thats not the same as doing a good or even great job. I know 8th comes from ‘8th highest wage bill’ - but there’s an awful lot of semantics around that (we also have the 7th highest, but hey ho). For example - Villa sign Tielemans on a free - rumoured to be on £180k pw. We sign Ramsay - rumoured to be on £100k pw. So our wage bill for Ramsay (if the numbers are correct) is almost half that of Tielemans. But Villa paid nothing in transfer fees, and we spent over £40m on Ramsay. So from a wage bill perspective, we’re better off - but not from a PSR perspective. Howe has done an excellent job up to this season by outperforming that outgoings cap - but on the flip, we’ve spent a lot more than plenty of the teams above us, who also actually look coached and managed this season. We’ve played more games than them, but we didn’t look better than them when we hadn’t. All of those teams, even Villa, were starting from a massively superior starting point though. So outspending them, in whatever metric you want to use, isn’t really making us ‘better’ than them, it’s just getting slightly closer. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
On the Grid Posted March 3 Share Posted March 3 21 minutes ago, TheBrownBottle said: I’ve seen the ‘ahead of schedule’ thing a number of times - what schedule? Does everything think that this much cash would be spent so that the club would sit in midtable for four years? Where should we have been? Genuine question, not being funny "This much cash" has been spent fixing past fuck ups which we are trying to recover from. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheBrownBottle Posted March 3 Share Posted March 3 Just now, SteV said: All of those teams, even Villa, were starting from a massively superior starting point though. So outspending them, in whatever metric you want to use, isn’t really making us ‘better’ than them, it’s just getting slightly closer. Not so sure Villa were - and we’ve not just outspent them, we’ve blown them out of the water on transfer fees. More than double actual spend, and in terms of net spend about ten times more. I’m ok with 8th being ‘par’. If all things are equal, it should be what a capable PL manager could do with the squad and money at their disposal. If David Moyes was in charge, I reckon we’d have been about 8th each year, regardless of context. But I think Howe is better than that - hence the higher finishes. And we’re underperforming that consistently at the moment - which is a problem. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Keegans Export Posted March 3 Share Posted March 3 Just now, TheBrownBottle said: They are - but our wages & amortised fees are above £300m at this point. Well in that case we could be fucked regardless. If anything, it disincentivises qualifying for the Europa or Conference League because the additional income is minimal but the drop-off from 85% to 70% is substantial. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheBrownBottle Posted March 3 Share Posted March 3 Just now, On the Grid said: "This much cash" has been spent fixing past fuck ups which we are trying to recover from. If we’re going to be blunt, it was hardly rocket science replacing most of the Ashley-era team. Is Trippier better than Manquillo? Is Dan Burn better than Ciaran Clark? Is Bruno better than Jeff Hendrick? Is Matt Targett a better LB than Matt Ritchie? That’s what it took. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheBrownBottle Posted March 3 Share Posted March 3 3 minutes ago, Keegans Export said: Well in that case we could be fucked regardless. If anything, it disincentivises qualifying for the Europa or Conference League because the additional income is minimal but the drop-off from 85% to 70% is substantial. No, qualifying for any European competition gives that additional headroom - and increases the ‘buffer’ as a result - you’re able to spend 115% of usable income for football purposes rather than 100%. Our income for an upper midtable finish without Europe next season will be about £380m. A different of 15% is £57m of additional available spend. Given that 8th is liable to be a European slot, that should be roughly a given. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
On the Grid Posted March 3 Share Posted March 3 1 minute ago, TheBrownBottle said: If we’re going to be blunt, it was hardly rocket science replacing most of the Ashley-era team. Is Trippier better than Manquillo? Is Dan Burn better than Ciaran Clark? Is Bruno better than Jeff Hendrick? Is Matt Targett a better LB than Matt Ritchie? That’s what it took. And coin....into wages, contracts, agents, infrastructure etc...on paper it sounds simple but it isn't Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheBrownBottle Posted March 3 Share Posted March 3 Just now, On the Grid said: And coin....into wages, contracts, agents, infrastructure etc...on paper it sounds simple but it isn't Sorry you’ve lost me there - not sure what you mean. I don’t think spending money to get better players than what we had was a difficult task, nor do I think that the Ashley era was some insurmountable problem which you live with for half a decade. In terms of income levels, NUFC are roughly back to where their ‘natural’ level should be. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
On the Grid Posted March 3 Share Posted March 3 In no way am I saying everything is great...its not but if you take everything into account in the last few years, its not a bad position we find ourselves in as a club Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
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