NUFC specific FFP/PSR discussion

[gjohnson]

All this guff could be sorted with one simple rule change. Transfer fees paid in full and up front, and declared..no more of this "non disclosed" gubbins either. 

 

Stops clubs gambling on future income they very well might not have, and stops all the daft chicanery about how a club can sell an academy player for 10m and suddenly have 30-40 to buy someone

[timeEd32]

The other complicating factor is this almost certainly won't be done in an order that allows us to make sense of this in real time (e.g. buy Geuhi > sell Miggy > announce new sponsorship > buy RW). It's entirely possible we also buy a RW and then have to play catch-up ( oting that it may not be catch-up to the club, but only our perception as they obviously know about things in the pipeline well before us).

 

The end of the window will be one checkpoint, but we could front-load expenses and resolve any issues in January/June. I'd be disappointed if we rely on that again though given what happened and also that it removes wage savings from the equation. 

[The Butcher]

Hall on 7k a week. Righto 

 

 

Edited August 7 by The Butcher

[Rich]

Since the last accounts were published, there have seemingly been changes for the following that weren't fully reflected/reflected at all there:

 

• Almirón signed for £20M in January 2019 on an initial 5.5-year deal, re-signed on a 3.5-year deal in February 2023 after 4 years (so only ~3 months reflected in the accounts)

• Joelinton signed for £40M in July 2019 on an initial 6-year deal, re-signed on a 4-year deal in April 2024 after 5 years
• Krafth signed for £4.5M in August 2019 on an initial 5-year deal, re-signed on a 1.5-year deal in February 2024 after 4.5 years

• Wilson signed for £20M in September 2020 on an initial 4-year deal, re-signed on a 2-year deal in September 2023 after 3 years

• Guimarães signed for £40M in January 2022 on an initial 5.5-year deal, re-signed on a 5-year deal in October 2023 after 1.5 years

• Burn signed for £12M in January 2022 on an initial 2.5-year deal, re-signed on a 2-year deal in October 2023 after 1.5 years

• Trippier signed for £12M in January 2022 on an initial 2.5-year deal, re-signed on a 2.5-year deal in January 2023 after 1 year (so only ~5 months reflected in the accounts)

 

If we assume we amortised all of them across the full length of the contract initially (i.e. before the five-year cap came in) then the annual cost changes should be around the following:

• Almirón from £3.64M per year to £1.15M per year (-£2.49M)

• Joelinton from £6.67M per year to £1.67M per year (-£5M)

• Krafth from £0.9M per year to £0.3M per year (-£0.6M)

• Wilson from £5M per year to £2.5M per year (-£2.5M)

• Guimarães from £7.27M per year to £5.82M per year (-£1.45M)

• Burn from £4.8M per year to £2.4M per year (£-2.4M)

• Trippier from £4.8M per year to £2.9M per year (£-1.9M)

That's an approximate reduction in annual amortisation of ~£16.3M, if I haven't messed anything up.

 

And changes seem imminent for these two, which could be significant—as far as amortisation goes, at least:

• Isak signed for £63M in August 2022 on an initial 6-year deal

• Gordon signed for £40M in January 2023 on an initial 3.5-year deal

[r0cafella]

1 minute ago, timeEd32 said:

The other complicating factor is this almost certainly won't be done in an order that allows us to make sense of this in real time (e.g. buy Geuhi > sell Miggy > announce new sponsorship > buy RW). It's entirely possible we also buy a RW and then have to play catch-up ( oting that it may not be catch-up to the club, but only our perception as they obviously know about things in the pipeline well before us).

 

The end of the window will be one checkpoint, but we could front-load expenses and resolve any issues in January/June. I'd be disappointed if we rely on that again though given what happened and also that it removes wage savings from the equation. 

Front loading is risky, you’re relying on your competitors to keep you compliant essentially which carriers huge risks. Imagine if that Gordon for Gomez deal would have happened, I’d be fuming and I’m sure everyone else would be too. 
 

It’s things such as this why I feel we ought to be cautious with who we are buying. Guehi will be a cracking player for us I’ve got no doubts but the fee is going to really hurt us, we simply don’t have the revenue to be splashing out 60m on fees on a consistent basis without a trade off coming somewhere down the line. 
 

Obviously this all goes out of the window IT related party rules are removed and IF PIF are willing to open the wallet to allow us to truly compete. 

[r0cafella]

1 minute ago, Rich said:

Since the last accounts were published, there have seemingly been changes for the following that weren't fully reflected/reflected at all there:

 

• Almirón signed for £20M in January 2019 on an initial 5-year deal, re-signed on a 3.5-year deal in February 2023 after 4 years (so only ~3 months reflected in the accounts)

• Joelinton signed for £40M in July 2019 on an initial 6-year deal, re-signed on a 4-year deal in April 2024 after 5 years
• Krafth signed for £4.5M in August 2019 on an initial 5-year deal, re-signed on a 1.5-year deal in February 2024 after 4.5 years

• Wilson signed for £20M in September 2020 on an initial 4-year deal, re-signed on a 2-year deal in September 2023 after 3 years

• Guimarães signed for £40M in January 2022 on an initial 5.5-year deal, re-signed on a 4-year deal in April 2024 after 2 years

• Burn signed for £12M in January 2022 on an initial 2.5-year deal, re-signed on a 2-year deal in October 2023 after 1.5 years

• Trippier signed for £12M in January 2022 on an initial 2.5-year deal, re-signed on a 2.5-year deal in January 2023 after 1 year

 

If we assume we amortised all of them across the full length of the contract initially (i.e. before the five-year cap came in) then the annual cost changes should be:

• Almirón from £4M per year to £1.15M per year (-£3.85M)

• Joelinton from £6.67M per year to £1.67M per year (-£5M)

• Krafth from £0.9M per year to £0.3M per year (-£0.6M)

• Wilson from £5M per year to £2.5M per year (-£2.5M)

• Guimarães from £7.27M per year to £6.36M (-£0.9M)

• Burn from £4.8M per year to £2.4M (£-2.4M)

• Trippier from £4.8M per year to £2.9M (£-1.9M)

That's an approximate reduction in amortisation of ~£17.2M, if I haven't messed anything up.

 

And changes seem imminent for these two, which could be very significant—as far as amortisation goes, at least:

• Isak signed for £63M in August 2022 on an initial 6-year deal

• Gordon signed for £40M in January 2023 on an initial 3.5-year deal

This is cracking work rich, thanks for putting it together. It’s important to realise too that the salary adjustments made to Bruno and Joe hit the bottom line, so we may have saved on amortisation but we are paying higher wages which would offset some of these savings. 

[Rich]

1 minute ago, r0cafella said:

This is cracking work rich, thanks for putting it together. It’s important to realise too that the salary adjustments made to Bruno and Joe hit the bottom line, so we may have saved on amortisation but we are paying higher wages which would offset some of these savings. 

 

Aye, this is just purely speaking from the amortisation POV, which I know isn't the full picture at all. You'd image the majority of those who have re-signed have done so on better terms.

[Rich]

The salary data available online generally looks like nonsense to me, by the way, though I don't doubt some are accurate and properly sourced.

[timeEd32]

8 minutes ago, Rich said:

Since the last accounts were published, there have seemingly been changes for the following that weren't fully reflected/reflected at all there:

 

• Almirón signed for £20M in January 2019 on an initial 5.5-year deal, re-signed on a 3.5-year deal in February 2023 after 4 years (so only ~3 months reflected in the accounts)

• Joelinton signed for £40M in July 2019 on an initial 6-year deal, re-signed on a 4-year deal in April 2024 after 5 years
• Krafth signed for £4.5M in August 2019 on an initial 5-year deal, re-signed on a 1.5-year deal in February 2024 after 4.5 years

• Wilson signed for £20M in September 2020 on an initial 4-year deal, re-signed on a 2-year deal in September 2023 after 3 years

• Guimarães signed for £40M in January 2022 on an initial 5.5-year deal, re-signed on a 4-year deal in April 2024 after 2 years

• Burn signed for £12M in January 2022 on an initial 2.5-year deal, re-signed on a 2-year deal in October 2023 after 1.5 years

• Trippier signed for £12M in January 2022 on an initial 2.5-year deal, re-signed on a 2.5-year deal in January 2023 after 1 year (so only ~5 months reflected in the accounts)

 

If we assume we amortised all of them across the full length of the contract initially (i.e. before the five-year cap came in) then the annual cost changes should be around the following:

• Almirón from £3.64M per year to £1.15M per year (-£2.49M)

• Joelinton from £6.67M per year to £1.67M per year (-£5M)

• Krafth from £0.9M per year to £0.3M per year (-£0.6M)

• Wilson from £5M per year to £2.5M per year (-£2.5M)

• Guimarães from £7.27M per year to £6.36M per year (-£0.9M)

• Burn from £4.8M per year to £2.4M per year (£-2.4M)

• Trippier from £4.8M per year to £2.9M per year (£-1.9M)

That's an approximate reduction in amortisation of ~£15.8M, if I haven't messed anything up.

 

And changes seem imminent for these two, which could be significant—as far as amortisation goes, at least:

• Isak signed for £63M in August 2022 on an initial 6-year deal

• Gordon signed for £40M in January 2023 on an initial 3.5-year deal

 

I think you may have copied Joelinton's stuff to Bruno? Bruno was five years in October 2023.

[r0cafella]

3 minutes ago, Rich said:

 

Aye, this is just purely speaking from the amortisation POV, which I know isn't the full picture at all. You'd image the majority of those who have re-signed have done so on better terms.

Aye the lack of transparency makes it really difficult to calculate these things. 
 

As you’ve mentioned as well, it’s not often premier league footballers take pay cuts

[Rich]

2 minutes ago, timeEd32 said:

 

I think you may have copied Joelinton's stuff to Bruno? Bruno was five years in October 2023.

 

Thanks for the spot, aye that's exactly what I'd done. Updated it and the numbers now. Just shout if there's anything else and I'll keep amending.

[r0cafella]

Just now, Rich said:

 

Thanks for the spot, aye that's exactly what I'd done. Updated it and the numbers now. Just shout if there's anything else and I'll keep amending.

If you’ve got nought to do how about giving a rough conservative value to each player in the squad (how much you think we could get for them) that way we can have a guess who will be the next FFP mandated sale

[janpawel]

Joelinton on £150k would be crazy imo 

 

I'd understand an increase that gets him into 6 figures a week, but he shouldn't be on that much imo 

[timeEd32]

Some of those extensions were likely a net positive (Burn, Joelinton), some will be basically neutral (Trippier?), and then Bruno's is likely a net negative on the order of £2-3m.

 

I'm still having a really hard time accepting we gave Gordon a 3.5 year deal. I can't imagine why we would have done that unless we had some reservations he'd be a flop or he refused to sign longer. But if we did then an extension for him should be a net positive as I don't think his wages will go up by £7m annually.

 

Isak is probably going to be a net negative since he originally signed on a 6 year deal when that was allowed and I think he's looking at a Bruno-esque increase.

[r0cafella]

Just now, timeEd32 said:

Some of those extensions were likely a net positive (Burn, Joelinton), some will be basically neutral (Trippier?), and then Bruno's is likely a net negative on the order of £2-3m.

 

I'm still having a really hard time accepting we gave Gordon a 3.5 year deal. I can't imagine why we would have done that unless we had some reservations he'd be a flop or he refused to sign longer. But if we did then an extension for him should be a net positive as I don't think his wages will go up by £7m annually.

 

Isak is probably going to be a net negative since he originally signed on a 6 year deal when that was allowed and I think he's looking at a Bruno-esque increase.

We didn’t don’t worry. Not a chance we shelled out 45m for a player on a 3.5 year contract, it defies logic. 

[Rich]

The only way we could have is if Gordon insisted and/or the contract contained extension triggers based on team performance, you'd think.

 

I wouldn't be at all surprised if it's wrong and the deal was a standard 5.5 years.

[Fezzle]

44 minutes ago, Rich said:

The salary data available online generally looks like nonsense to me, by the way, though I don't doubt some are accurate and properly sourced.

Like the Targett nonsense i will never be convinced of Kellys until his payslip does a Riise. Cant believe people actually fall for it

[gjohnson]

5 minutes ago, Fezzle said:

Like the Targett nonsense i will never be convinced of Kellys until his payslip does a Riise. Cant believe people actually fall for it

Long and short of it is that no-one outside the club and HMRC will know the exact wage figures, and weekly stuff doesn't account for any bonuses like goals, assists, appearances etc....eg Isak was probably adding on about 10k a week just for the goals alone

[Upthemags]

Might be a non-sequitur, but where are all the saudi clubs we supposedly have in our back pocket offering to buy our dead wood?

[gjohnson]

5 minutes ago, Upthemags said:

Might be a non-sequitur, but where are all the saudi clubs we supposedly have in our back pocket offering to buy our dead wood?

We're not allowed as it would upset the slimy 6

[TheBrownBottle]

1 hour ago, gjohnson said:

All this guff could be sorted with one simple rule change. Transfer fees paid in full and up front, and declared..no more of this "non disclosed" gubbins either. 

 

Stops clubs gambling on future income they very well might not have, and stops all the daft chicanery about how a club can sell an academy player for 10m and suddenly have 30-40 to buy someone

Unfortunately it wouldn’t - paying the transfer fee upfront doesn’t mean it won’t be amortised against the length of the contract.  If you buy a player for £10m cash and they have a five year contract it’ll go into the books as £2m per year. 

[Unbelievable]

2 hours ago, Checko said:

Could I ask that the currency is quoted in these figures? Lots of the figures there seem to be in Euros (Eg transfermarkt gives the Lewis Hall figure as being 33million euros, Minteh and Anderson sales are in Euros as well) but some of the PSR figures, wage estmates, Guehi transfer estimate etc seems to be in £s. Probably easier to keep everything to one currency.

Oops, you're right. Capology for wages is GBP, whereas transfer fees from Transfermarket were in EUR due to my settings. I will correct the posts. Thanks for notifying

[Unbelievable]

2 hours ago, Rich said:

Since the last accounts were published, there have seemingly been changes for the following that weren't fully reflected/reflected at all there:

 

• Almirón signed for £20M in January 2019 on an initial 5.5-year deal, re-signed on a 3.5-year deal in February 2023 after 4 years (so only ~3 months reflected in the accounts)

• Joelinton signed for £40M in July 2019 on an initial 6-year deal, re-signed on a 4-year deal in April 2024 after 5 years
• Krafth signed for £4.5M in August 2019 on an initial 5-year deal, re-signed on a 1.5-year deal in February 2024 after 4.5 years

• Wilson signed for £20M in September 2020 on an initial 4-year deal, re-signed on a 2-year deal in September 2023 after 3 years

• Guimarães signed for £40M in January 2022 on an initial 5.5-year deal, re-signed on a 5-year deal in October 2023 after 1.5 years

• Burn signed for £12M in January 2022 on an initial 2.5-year deal, re-signed on a 2-year deal in October 2023 after 1.5 years

• Trippier signed for £12M in January 2022 on an initial 2.5-year deal, re-signed on a 2.5-year deal in January 2023 after 1 year (so only ~5 months reflected in the accounts)

 

If we assume we amortised all of them across the full length of the contract initially (i.e. before the five-year cap came in) then the annual cost changes should be around the following:

• Almirón from £3.64M per year to £1.15M per year (-£2.49M)

• Joelinton from £6.67M per year to £1.67M per year (-£5M)

• Krafth from £0.9M per year to £0.3M per year (-£0.6M)

• Wilson from £5M per year to £2.5M per year (-£2.5M)

• Guimarães from £7.27M per year to £5.82M per year (-£1.45M)

• Burn from £4.8M per year to £2.4M per year (£-2.4M)

• Trippier from £4.8M per year to £2.9M per year (£-1.9M)

That's an approximate reduction in annual amortisation of ~£16.3M, if I haven't messed anything up.

 

And changes seem imminent for these two, which could be significant—as far as amortisation goes, at least:

• Isak signed for £63M in August 2022 on an initial 6-year deal

• Gordon signed for £40M in January 2023 on an initial 3.5-year deal

 

Love it! Thanks Rich. Wasn't aware so many of our players had their contracts extended along the way.

 

So with that added our current expected P/L position for the current PSR period would be approx. 38.8m (54.65 - 16.3m) excluding the impact of increased and decreased wages on those extensions, so probably a bit higher in reality (Bruno and Joelinton in particular will have seen their good form rewarded with higher wages). That would be a lot more in line with compliancy for the 105m total loss over any consecutive 3 year period.

 

 

Edited August 7 by Unbelievable
Impact of wage changes was not included in Rich's analysis

[timeEd32]

1 minute ago, Unbelievable said:

 

Love it! Thanks Rich. Wasn't aware so many of our players had their contracts extended along the way.

 

So with that added our current expected P/L position for the current PSR period would be approx. 38.8m (54.65 - 16.3m). That's a lot more in line with compliancy for the 105m total loss over any consecutive 3 year period.

 

Most of these are already accounted for in all the math (Swiss Ramble's or mine). I did it all in a very hand wavy sort of way for the recent stuff like Joelinton's extension savings crosses out Vlachodimos amortisation.

[Unbelievable]

Just now, timeEd32 said:

 

Most of these are already accounted for in all the math (Swiss Ramble's or mine). I did it all in a very hand wavy sort of way for the recent stuff like Joelinton's extension savings crosses out Vlachodimos amortisation.

I appreciate that and I acknowledge there is a lot of guesswork involved, but probably safe to say then that the real figure would be in the 45-55m range as it stands?