Nah, it doesn't affect the course of the ball.
Not sure about that. He's effectively on the line. Ball could have easily bounced in from his body.
His arm is down by his body when the ball hits him though. If it was up in the air or out to his side then yeah.
Huh? I'm watching a very pixelated river, but it looked to me like his arm was up, almost covering his head, not down..
Seeing it again, I would say his arm is not down, but neither is it in an unnatural position, so I can live with no pen in the end.