Stottie

The Martinez block from the Longstaff scuffed shot from the Isak knockdown probably stopped a goal. If we score that early in the game, I think they get a real hiding, five or six nil. De Gea wouldn't be set up to stop a mishit ball from that range, so I reckon its heading into the net.

A few months ago, Sanjay the stats dude on Twitter ran some numbers and they said Luke Shaw was his number one choice for our next LB. Probably wrong age profile, but he is very good.

The xG table I posted says Chelsea should have seven more points since Dec 1 based on chances created. Add just five to their total, and they would be level with Brighton with two more played. 5 behind Tottenham off the same games. That's not a "big mess". The big mess is Boehly. In case anyone has forgotten, Tuchel's team won the CL in May 2021 and finished third last season (21/22). In the PL, Tuchel's record was Played 63 Wins 35, Draws 17, Losses 11 For 109 Against 55. That's 1.93 points a game and nearly +1.00 GD per game. It will surpass whoever finishes third this time. He was sacked with them in sixth with 10 points off six games. https://www.premierleague.com/managers/15566/Thomas-Tuchel/overview

We've now scored the same number of goals as Man U and conceded half as many. Yet the general consensus is that they've been nailed on for Top 4 for weeks. They are playing a striker who looks genuinely worse than Chris Wood. At least Chris Wood touched the ball. Their key men are a combative midfielder who's been sent off twice and a (great) wide forward whose even-for-him hot streak looks like it's ended. The best thing they have going for them is their points already on the board. For us (and Man U), it's likely 15 points will do it, four wins and three draws from eleven matches. It's preferable some come from the Tottenham and Brighton games, but not essential. We could lose them both and it probably won't matter so long as we win some of the other games. I'm sure we'll get there. Four more wins. That's all we need.

Boehly He must be the only American who doesn't understand stats. Amazing considering how their sports are viewed. Expected points since December 1st. We should know this ourselves, but if you're missing chances, it's easy to get into a vicious circle of doubt and blame, which eats at self-confidence and makes you miss even more chances. It's not easy when things aren't going well, but jobs #1 and #2 are to keep the faith and block out the noise. As a new owner with a new manager, it can't be that difficult to answer every question with "we're doing a rebuild". We completely shat on Arsenal at the end of last season, but look at where they are now.

Yeah, he's two-footed and you don't have to be that strong on your weaker foot to cut the ball back. Cutbacks create very high probability chances, and have been a part of the Man City equation. Maxi had a great game, not quite clinical with the dribbles, but still pulling over an extra defender every time and still feeding someone in a shooting position. He remains a hole in our press, but Man U were too weak to exploit it.

Looked like it was Martinez (probably their best player) kicking off about being subbed, and our lot saying he or someone he was confronting was doing something out of order. From our perspective, probably shithousing to amplify something bad on their side.

I think 4 is more than Liverpool in the 7-0.

Fucking smashed them, absolutely brilliant. Their best player was Martinez and but for their CHs and poor finishing, it would have been 4 or 5. Our MoM maybe Willock, because we needed that goal. Maxi set up loads, despite seeming a bit ponderous and not quite seizing the moment. Got a great assist with the header. Isak beautiful reverse pass in the buildup. Gorgeous football. The mojo is back. It's a shame we couldn't do it on Carabao Cup day, but this is still a season for the ages.

Creating great chances, just not converting them. The double save was very jammy. More class from Isak, right side putting great balls in, ASM very lively, the same old story of our mids getting into positions but not finishing them. Every defeat this season has had us conceding first half, so not so concerned about it being level at HT. We have a good bench today, so I think we can do this.

Brave team with Maxi. Hope he has a good one. Presumably he must be fitter than last time out. For them, Dalot over AWB and Sabitzer over Fred. Quite confident now. Howay the Lads!

I'd put Joelinton back in for ASM just for the pressing,but there you go. A very positive move from Howe if that's what he's doing. Maxi must be fitter than his last outing. He played the pass before the assis, but was barely involved in that half.

Liverpool's away form is now P14 W3 D3 L8 F14 A24 -10 Pts 12 That's worse than Southampton who are bottom.

Brighton's record vs. teams in the Top 9 (Fulham upward) is now P10 W2 D3 L5. They are too weak defensively against the better teams in the league. Brentford's second came about 10 seconds after a Brighton throw in. The third was a free kick with the defence AWOL at the back post. Conversely Brighton's equalizer pen came from a counter following a Brentford break with a few minutes to go. Very poor game management from them. Brighton's first was a simple long ball to Mitoma. Both teams have conceded twice as many as us and today was lots of evidence why.

Watching Liverpool, Brighton, and Bournemouth today and all three look vulnerable at the back, conceding goals which we wouldn't. I'm feeling quite confident now.

For comparison, our game at the Etihad a month ago (vs. Haaland and Foden) was 1.3 vs. 0.4. Our score underrates the Wilson chance, and we got nothing for Joelinton's airshot from that cross. xG only counts actual shots.

One more and Liverpool go below Brighton.

Not so long to go now. Seven games coming up in April, then five in May so lots of actual football to look forward to with no more interruptions. I understand the importance of international breaks, but my main allegence is to the Toon. Transfer speculation and non-stories about our ownership don't make for a good two weeks.

Brighton home to Brentford too. Brighton last 8 home 5-0-3, Brentford last 8 away 3-3-2.

Nah Tottenham or Brighton. In the current scenario. It would have been Liverpool too, but we messed that one up. I just want us to finish above the team in fifth.

The thing to note with fivethirtyeight is how low they are drawing the bar. They have us as fourth with 66 points. This sounds realistic to me, and the takeaway from it should be that we probably only need five wins. 5-4-3 gets us the 19 points to hit 66. Liverpool have three hard games coming up, starting with Man City. If you include the cup semi, Brighton have four in a row in April, Spurs and Chelsea away, the semi, then Man City two days later. The pressure is only going to crank up and a team having momentum is one way to counter it.

Are we now a club that has clear targets, leaks them when the window is closed, and still ends up going for them? With Botman or Isak even, weren't enquiries made before it became clear in the press that we were in for them? There is nothing for the club to gain from "in for McTominay" coming out in the press in March.

Yes, no nervy crowd please. This game must be about what we can win, not what we may lose. Fulham were set up to beat a very strong Man U team at OT yesterday, but lost on a catastrophic error, the kind of thing that can happen to anyone but is especially common for panicky teams lacking self-belief. With Spurs drawing from two goals ahead, that's the first piece falling into place. Setbacks for Liverpool and Brighton in their games mentioned above would also help a lot.

Spurs play today, then Man City home to Liverpool and Brighton home to Brentford before we play this match. Brentford have only lost five games all season. Hopefully Toney plays Brighton and then gets banned so he can't play us. Anyway, by the time this one comes around, we may have had some helpful other results and be in a stronger position. Miggy doesn't sound good, but I hope Gordon is fit enough for the bench. We've been a bit Jeckyl and Hyde recently, mostly good but with errors that we didn't see earlier in the season creeping in. Another one just yesterday. It's understandable as the pressure cranks up. I hope the crowd are up for it and not nervy as we saw at the Carabao Cup home semi. That seemed to translate onto the pitch. This is not a game we actually need to win. It's only three out of thirty six points available. I'd put Joelinton back in, play Willock left, and go back to the ol' high press. Their big threat is Rashford in behind, so don't give anyone the freedom of SJP to play him in as happened with remarkable ease between Trent and Nunez in the Liverpool game. Get some defensive solidity back and leave the rest up to the Swedish wonder.