kocunar

Hopefully Barnes is the Barella of July and we actually get Chiesa done in 2 days

Thanks for corrections, I did calculate percentages based on amortisations as well, need to update that part. Also, I saw that number of £69.7M for 2022/23 but other numbers in that part (only £4.5M in 2026-27) seemed to indicate that they are based on end of June 2022 ( it even refers to total amortisation as squad cost at 30 June 2022) so I used my own calculations with the whole summer and winter instead.

Nah, I actually wanted to put TLDR at the end but forgot

We spend however much we want if the opportunity arises, but don't want to limit ourselves for the future too much. Probably around £75m in transfer fees. Also, we don't have to sell anyone.

OK, here we go, an attempt to find out and explain FFP constraints that we face this year and in the future. It will be written in 2 parts, this being part 2 where I go over our financial numbers for past and upcoming seasons. Keep in mind that a lot of the numbers in this post will be estimates. However, you will see by the end that even with estimates, the money we can spend this year isn't really limited by FFP but rather how aggressive we want to be this year and how much we want to limit ourselves in the future. As was outlined in part 1, the maximum loss we can sustain in a 3 year period is £105m. In season 2021/22 we had a total revenue of £180m. Match income accounts for £27.3m, broadcast revenue £124.1m, commercial revenue £26.5m and other sources £1.8m. We also made a profit of £5.8m on disposal of player registrations. When it comes to losses, total amortisation was £49.7m (increased a lot by January signings compared to year before) and staff wages were £170.2m. In the end, for FFP calculations we were in a total loss of around £-35.7m for the whole year. For season 2022/23 we had a projected revenue of ~£231.4m. Projections for match income are around ~£30m (based on few extra cup games and increased ticket prices). Broadcast income was around £163.4m, due to new and more lucrative EPL TV deals, better standings position and more televised games. Commercial revenue is projected to have been around ~£35m, thanks to noon sleeve sponsorship and a couple of new commercial partners. With other source of revenue at around £3m, total revenue is projected to be around ~£231.4m. We also made a profit of around £13m in player sales. As for losses, total amortisation was ~£80m due to only Dubravka amortisation of £1m expiring and all of summer and winter signings adding to amortisation costs. Wages have increased somewhere close to ~£180m. All in all, for FFP calculations, the total loss was around £-15.7m. Which leaves us the next year with UCL play and new shirt sponsor. Our spend for next year would be allowed up to £54m in losses. Let's first go over our minimum revenues which I hope is how our management is calculating future guaranteed revenues. We don't want to put ourselves in a Chelsea or Everton situation. We will do that by calculating REASONABLE worst case scenario. Obviously there exists a scenario where we get relegated, but even in bookmakers the odds for that right now are 500/1. So, we will choose a scenario where we end last place in UCL with 4 points in group stage and where we finish 10th in EPL. Obviously, we would hope for better results, but we should be prepared for anything. In that case, our revenues for next year would look something like this: match income at ~£40m (slight increase in ticket prices and extra UCL games), £150.4m in broadcast revenue (10th place in EPL) and commercial revenue around £55m (Sela deal bringing an extra £18.5m). UCL revenue would be around £30m (would be a lot higher but our UEFA coefficient is very low, hopefully something we improve this year). It can also go a lot higher with a deep run, but we calculate worst case scenario here. With other revenues at around £3m, total revenue would be around £280m. For reference, in season 2021/22 that would have put us in 14th place in the world, right above Inter Milan. Also, sale of Chris Wood for £15m counts towards this year. When it comes to costs, total amortisation costs increase to ~£90m. That is because only Murphy's and Krafth's amortisation cost expires, while quite a bit is added by (primarily) Tonali and Minteh. Also, total wages increase to ~£190m. All together, the profit for this year so far is ~£15m, even when including Tonali and Minteh transfers. Given that we can afford a loss of ~£54m, we still have ~£69m to spend. Those £69m do not mean we that can only spend £69m on transfer fees. Because of amortisation we could theoretically buy two players for £10m salary and £120m transfer fee each. That transfer fee would count as only £24m for this year per player. However, that would be very unwise thing to do, as it is very much not a guarantee that we will manage to qualify for UCL next year which those transfers would require. Basically, UCL money gives us extra non-guaranteed money this year. Pushing FFP to the limit this year would require us to qualify for UCL every year for next few years in order to avoid selling any key players. That is also the reason Howe said that Sela sponsorship doesn't improve our budget this year. It will be very helpful in the future, but for this year, after qualifying for UCL, we weren't going to push the FFP to its limit anyway. So, how much will we spend this year? Hard to answer. It all depends on how aggressive we want to be. Similar to last year, if an opportunity like Isak opens up, we can take it, but otherwise I would expect a slow summer. Probably around £25m in wages + amortisation. One version of that is 2 rotation level players with a combined transfer fee of £75m. Oh and also, a revelation in all of this. We don't have to sell anyone. We might if we get a really good offer that we thinks will only come once, but when it comes to FFP: we don't have to sell anyone.

OK, here we go, an attempt to find out and explain FFP constraints that we face this year and in the future. It will be written in 2 parts, this being part 1 where I explain FFP and salary cap in general, before going over our numbers in part 2. There are 2 mechanisms deployed for controlling football spending. First one is FFP, second one that comes into effect next year is a salary cap. Salary cap is much simpler than FFP, it simply puts a cap on the ratio between wages of your staff and your total revenues. For next season, that ratio is 90%, season after 80% and season after that it will be 70% and it will stay at that level. This might seem concerning because our wages/revenue ratio in season 2021/22 was 95%. However that ratio is projected to have been 78% this season (2022/23) and thanks to UCL next season is projected to be around 68% (that will obviously depend on who we sign this summer as well). All in all, this constraint might be relevant if in the season where it reaches 70% we don't reach UCL or any European football, but we shouldn't worry about it for now. More complex one is the FFP. FFP states that your total losses in a 3 year window cannot be more £15m in total, increased to £105m if the extra £90m are covered by the owner. (In our case, we can definitely count on that) Any money spent on infrastructure, women's teams, youth teams and training facilities is exempt from being counted into FFP. A method that teams employ to limit the impact FFP has on their transfers is to spread the cost of the transfer over the duration of the original contract. (also called amortisation) For example, if a player was signed for £50m on a 5 year contract, instead of counting the whole £50m in the year he was signed, teams will spread those £50m over 5 years so that in each of the next 5 years, cost of that transfer will be £10m. This is the way Chelsea managed to sign whole host of players, by signing them to 8 year contracts and spreading it over that length of time. This is of course risky, as they will count towards your expenses for the next 8 years if you don't sell them in the meantime. It has also been limited by UEFA in the meantime as they have set the maximum amortisation time to 5 years, no matter the contract length. If a player is sold during the time his amortisation is still being counted, he will impact that year's costs based on the total amount of amortisation he has left. For instance, if a player was bought for £50m on a 5 year contract and then after 2 years he was sold for £40m, he would have counted as a £10m cost during the first 2 years and then as a £10m profit in the third year. (£40m income for sale minus the £30m of amortisation that was left after 2 years) This is the famous plusvalenza, which Juventus (and other clubs in smaller ways) used to cheat with, by trading players in the last years of their amortisation for inflated values to help balance their books for that year. Also keep in mind amortisation deals with player transfers only, player salaries are counted normally on a year by year basis. That's it for the first part, now comes the second part with specific NUFC numbers.

He is right, you will see why when I'm done writing the whole breakdown.

I'm currently on a quest to find out how much we can spend. Will post detailed results when I'm done.

This one feels right.

The worst part is, it will probably work out for them. (the Brazilian part)

Our main goal should be to qualify for UCL again. (EPL will probably have 5 spots next year in the expanded format) Given that the contracts we spent on short amorisation times to save ourselves from relegation will be gone soon, we would be able to go big next summer.

If anyone was gonna replace the midfield GOAT, I would be happy for it to be Guler.

Yes, they dont have unlimited funds like we do.

I know what you mean but unknown kids dont get sold for €45m at 16.

Tchouameni?? Ye, bring him and Kimmich both

I start wondering what our transfer budget would have been if we didnt qualify for UCL and finished like 8th. (Which more or less would be expected result before the season)

I mean 2 quality signings that improve first 11, and maybe a couple more for depth.

I would be happy if we get 2 if our rumoured budget is correct.

Holy shit the explosive reactions, I'm just joking man

It almost feels like PIF's focus in football is elsewhere.

If they get Wirtz somehow, I will be more than happy.

Big McTom is back in play.

Playing week in week out against top opposition helps you keep yourself in match form. Especially important for a player like Brozović who is the first target for press and needs to solve those situations fast and automatically. Also, in specific case for Brozović, who doesn't lead a healthy lifestyle, him going to Saudi where there is no pressure could basically mean the end of career.

Praise the Lord, we (Croatia) might be saved. (For people too annoyed to translate it, it says that transfer is on hold for now because Saudi's lowered their offer.)

Was the player I wanted the most, seemed perfect for us. Oh well, I hope they have something planned.