BShearer

well, we knew we gonna lose to Pool and City, it was just these came after series of awful performances vs Bournemouth, Everton, Luton, forest and a CL and Carabao exits. Villa away wont be easier, they are good at home, one of the best home record this season, while we are not in a good form. for Howe the issue really is as long as we can play our high intensity game we can match anyone for periods, but once we need to be more tactical, control games, control the speed, have a bit more tactical edge, play any different than our high intensity attacking game we are basically ripped to pieces. of course the injuries affect this as well, in a way we are not even able to pull up our high intensity style vs the likes of Luton, Bournmouth to punish them but they can punish us. while the added schedule is really something that hit Howe in the face, another thing to reconsider with our style of play because lets be honest if we dont have a single injury next season and we are in Europe without heavy on the spot rotation our players would burn out by end of November.

not exploring the Saudi league loan deals at all is a mistake imo. fucking PL clubs even had a vote about 2 months ago that related clubs ("same owner") can make deal, it just slipped through with 13 votes against it lol. needed 14 to get it banned.

I think they found some kind of form since around they won the club world cup, while our form apart from the FA cup game has not changed much and was quite poor. but also we have had some great games at home vs top sides this season, we also beat them out of Carabao and handed nice beating to Man Utd, Chelsea, Arse at home already. really depends on if we can play our high tempo game and get the lead and push on, otherwise it will be a long game.

I agree on Spurs, I also thought they will be rotten shit without Kane. Simply the few summer transfer shook them up well, and the new manager imo is really great on bringing in a good mentality which is what they needed after the Conte period who blamed players quite often even fucked off while they were actually 3rd place so very much in fight for CL places. he kind of forced his axe with the behaviour. big lesson is money needs to be spent well, even 1 signing thats fits like a glove can mean a lot. unfortunately our window did not really pay off due to Barnes injury and Tonali cluster fuck situation. Hall hardly playing, and Livramento is good and young but pretty much squad player rather than an influential starter. going forward will be brutally hard as I dont expect Man Utd and Chelsea to underperform so much for much longer. sooner or later they throw enough money at it and they will be much better than now. also dont expect Pool, City, Arsenal to suddenly being much worse, maybe one odd season in 5 or something, but not regularly. I still think Villa is overrated and running very hot, expect them to suffer a lot once they have the Thursday games in Conference League kicking off, I think they wont make top5. still hard to see we would be able to compete for same transfer targets like Arse, Man Utd, Chelsea... so we need to be shrewd, and hit it home with transfers, no flops on big money, clear the deadwood properly, work out the financial side/sponsors properly, Chelsea and Man Utd show you can spend 200m or 300m a year and still end up with 3-4 flops, high spend is no guarantee.

quite the kit clash, lol

I still think there is no money to spend this window. maybe some loan without option to buy.

Howe is being asked lot of questions tactically these days and he fails to answer them. Luton, Forest, Pool, all very different sides, we lost them all and we never looked like winning them.being underdog or favourite we fail the same.

if we just beat Luton and Forest we would be right up there 1 p behind Spurs I expect both Villa and Spurs to drop lot more points but unfortunately we will not be there to capitalize. we really need some big results away from home but cat see much in the Pool and Villa away games unless Howe can come up with something else tactically because doing what we did in Bournemouth, Everton and Luton games aint gonna be happy end vs Pool or Villa.

hard to see much better signings/transfer kitty available next summer if we dont make CL and get that extra revenue in. we do need CL revenue. without that we need to build up much better sponsor revenue which is also easier with being a regular CL club. the Sela shirt deal and CL revenue together allowed us to spend relatively high for Tonali, Barnes, Livramento, Hall few contract renewals etc plus the income for Maxi. take CL revenue out of that and it could be tight.

we signed Tonali for a reason and that reason causing us lot of issues now. he was signed so we have better rotation options and much stronger midfield trio than last season. now with all the things happened and constant injuries we actually have a lesser midfield than last season generally. as it stands signing someone like Tielemans on a free would have been much more useful business. of course in hindsight easier to say, but its like a huge disaster this to happen with the star signing of the summer. can imagine the shock of Howe when he was first told that as per news in Italy Tonali likely to get long ban. I bet at first he thought this is a prank.

Chelsea winning, Man Utd winning, I guess Spurs will win too tomorrow albeit that helps us keep Brighton away a bit . really horrible round of football and we had the easiest opponent probably this round.

have the feeling the Saudi world cup bid of 2034 and the current bankrolling of the Saudi league took the priority in the football project of the Saudi plans. really interested in the January window, some big loans from Saudi league would bring some criticism in the fake media but also would show proper ambition. there was even a PL vote of it and red shirt cartel clubs could not reach majority to pass it, wonder if we use that to our advantage or not. I do hope tho someone will have a word when next round of Saudi league transfers happen that they stop filling up the bank accounts our direct rivals with overpaying for some expensive dross. I dont want them to spend huge fees for likes or Casemiro, Varane etc so rivals can get rid of their overpaid stars and get money no one else would pay for them in current market. (instead of being stuck with them for years stopping them to replace them for younger, more quality, more hungry players) 150/200m fees quoted for 33 year old Salah is madness. unless they take Dubravka for 90m and Dummet for another 70m.

its such a rare thing you sign a top player close to club record and he is banned straight for 10 months. happened with Toney but least with him its his club punished too (Brentford) with him being banned. but with Tonali Milan must be laughing they got huge fee, they dont have one of their best midfielder out for 10 months, they pocketed a huge fee reinvest or spend on whatever they want. while us left with sending him to gambling therapy and just hoping he comes back stronger next season which may happen may not. i wonder if Tonali and his agent looked into the eyes of Howe and Ashworth at contract signings and thinking " you are in for a big surprise soon".

losses to Bournemouth, Everton, Luton and Forest are really bad. these are teams from the worse half of the lower table generally. if we dont get the points in vs these means we need to get the points in vs better clubs which will be hard imo. home form was something to rely on but today a shit Forest gave us no chance and tactically I cannot see what have we worked on before the Luton game or today game. what was the plan... we do need to qualify for CL to be able to afford higher fees and salaries to players which is now very unlikely. without that our catch up to other will be lot slower, harder... we also need to stop the rot in the form, and now comes a streak of 3 very hard PL games, Pool will go hard at Anfield, City maybe about to hit form and KDb is back for them, and Villa want to repay us for the 5-1 win in very first round. dont think we will lose all three but very easily could end up as 1 point out of 9. if we play anything like vs Luton or Bournemouth than it will be ugly. form and momentum can change quickly if we get a draw at anfield and beat Sunderland we may even trouble City... but Howe needs to find answers to the serious questions our recent form brought up. I bet Spurs and Villa cannot believe last two results we had they have a very underperforming Chelsea and Man U and also Castle currently. thats all they need when potentially 4th and 5th can worth CL. dont think Howe is in immediate danger, but we need to see the January window if we dont get anyone in or anyone who can add quality in first 11 that means money is tight due to FFP. then reaching CL/EL is crucial otherwise next summer window will be lot less exciting than previous one.

this Luton loss aint good, no excuses really. the depleted first 11 we put out was still levels above their 11. I certainly would not change the Luton 11 versus ours. but our performnce again deserved fuck all. last season we overachieved and were using the easier schedule to our advantage. most of our rivals were involved in heavy CL/EL schedule, we did not have that so avoided injuries better and also has often a whole week between PL games which was helping our style of play. even the Carabao draw was easy on us Tranmare, Bournemouth, Leicester, Soton until the final. not one upper half PL club vs this time when it was City, Man U, Chelsea already before semis. night and day between draws. we were very hard to beat away from home last season, 3 away games lost total, now its 6 before we visit Pool, Arse, Man U, Chelsea, Villa this is 5 of remaining 9 way games left. probably 4 losses or 5 unless form improves heavily on the road. all these injuries, will be honest, its not all bad luck. some are, some are down to poor work, rehab, bringing players back early when then break down again. lack of rotation August, September... Tonali thing also not bad luck. we were played there like a kipper by him and his agent and Milan too. imagine Arsenal having this with 106m Rice that they sell Xhaka and within a month of buying Rice FA takes him out for a season for betting. it would seriously affect their season and I bet they would grill WHU over it. or they do their homework deep in scouting phase. transfer window turned out to be mediocre, we really needed quality in first 11, best of it so far Livramento but he aint a starter yet so the first 11 didnt really become stronger which shows. realistic thing now is anywhere between 6th and 8th and maybe a good FA cup run which would be nice. but we spent big on transfer in the summer with the CL revenue expected and next year we dont have that. we may have some EL revenue which is lot less if we qualify or not even that. we are running the risk of not being able to spend as much next summer as we did this summer while most of our rivals will easily spend more Man U and Chelsea especially will again open bank. these two clubs if they manage to solve their issues is thats another two clubs front of us for CL places. we really need highly underperforming top clubs for us to clinch CL places (last season Chelsea, Spurs, and Pool where Pool had their worst season in about 10 years while Chelsea, Spurs fired their managers) we kind of overachived last season but we needed to as not always will be underperforming top clubs. was hoping the 5th place wild card can work for us but with this away record we have and no sign of improving it this is less likely now. also bit random now if 5h pace will be CL now or not probably yes albeit I prefer it to be not if we are not 5th lol. plus Aston Villa punching way above their weight so far, and also Spurs much more positive team despite losing Kane with a great appointment in Postecoglou instead of Conte. Howe still has credit from previous 1.5 season, but long bad form wont cut it with the owners. they need to see the team hit top form before end of season even if we just miss out on 4th and 5th rather than being 10+ points from it. makes a huge difference. but no CL worries me, its serious money in yearly revenue which helps with salaries and transfer fees for FFP, miss out on it and we wont afford as many better signings as we need. and we need a lot. some twatter numbers I saw already didnt estimate too much CL revenue, it will be nowhere near 70-80m due to we are out of it early and also the fucked up coeff points make a big difference in the % of money we get. also Arse, City getting bigger chunk from the England portion due to two another English clubs re out early. not final number but we were about to get 30m only from CL while City already in around 75m or so and can go up quite a lot if they go far again. but even that 30m is important as that is the one year cost of two 50m players on 100K each (assuming 5 year deal), or a 100m player on 200K a week.

can we really afford to keep spending big if we not making CL 2 of next 3 times?

if this was hard wait until we visit Pool, Arsenal, Villa in the next month or so

big chance this round with Villa messing up, Man Utd losing , but we react with losing to Luton Town.. Spurs big winner of this round and Chelsea also can cut their gap.

we are in bad form, lots of injuries and the transfer window in the summer did not really help us much. all in all its a bit better rotation options with Livramento and Hall than last season but none of them improved the first eleven which was crucial to do imo. few loans needed who can improve first eleven, if we cannot touch Saudi league loans I cannot see much improvement in this window either. having said that tactical issues wont be solved in the window, Tindall and Howe need to come up with something much better away from home, as if the likes Bournemouth, Luton , Everton beating us its not because they have so much better squads.

Saudi loans line up with some real quality early January or this season will be serious setback.

Hall imo has some kind of trigger in his contract that if he plays certain minutes in PL we need to buy him and maybe Howe based on what he has seen decided not wanting him so we dont play him enough to reach the mandatory buy trigger.

8-8-3 away record last season 1-2-6 so far this season if we lose today. and we are yet to go to Pool, Arse, Man Utd, Chelsea, Villa...

games like this I remember how Tonali, his agent and Milan royally fucked us on purpose. they were looking for a club to pay big fee and salary to spend his very likely serious ban.

wonder if he really thinks of joining Man Utd, then how much is he working on the January transfer window.. is he doing a sabotage in some way to stop a big rival of Man Utd. I really hope we working hard for weeks already on January deals but hard to see Ashworth trying hard to strengthen us if he is looking to join a direct rival. not an ideal sitution.

if we cant go into away games vs promoted side and win then wtf we are about to do in next 4 away games after this? Pool, Villa, Forest, Arsenal in next 4 away games in PL current top3 and Forest with a new manager bounce. we are doing everything to let a horrible Man Utd and Chelsea side front of us. Howe needs to react tactically in the break, and get a win here by all means.