t00nt00n313

Getting flashbacks to May last year when everyone thought we'd thrash man u and then we lost, and man U are showing some signs of getting better. That said that game was away and tbh I'm still more worried about the palace game than this one.

Villa really aren't as much of a threat as everyone seems to think they are, win our game in hand and they are 5 points behind us and they also have a tough run of games. it's still very much between us, city and Chelsea for 4th and 5th (forest have a really easy run of games).

For those interested I jotted out what I see as the most likely scenario of us getting CL football. Assuming we don't get any points away to arsenal, away to villa and away to brighton, we can get CL if the following happens. If chelsea don't win 5 out of 6 from the following (meaning that them getting 2 draws would suffice for us in this scenario): Forest h (final game of season) Man u h Fulham a Everton h L pool h Ipswich h And we beat: ipswich h palace h Everton h Man u h And also we win vs Chelsea at home (So us to win 62.5% or 5/8 of our games inc chelsea all of which are home games) We would get cl assuming villa also don't get 6 wins and a draw from their 7 games which is unlikely for Villa. Should also probably caveat that this assumes 5th place is cl.

My worry is that they won't take this seriously after winning a cup, then international duties, then cup celebrations. It's home though and the crowd will be roaring so I'm really hoping that'll carry them. They can't be getting cocky and need to go into this fully respecting Brentford. Season is far from over.

Murphy and schar? Can't remember if Jolinton came under rafa.

I honestly think 64 could even potentially be enough for 5th this season with how inconsistent everyone has been, but that obviously depends on whether or not Chelsea (and to a lesser extent bournemouth/villa) can pick up form. We were on exactly half of those points half way into the season (i.e. 19 games in) and were 5th. With that said mind, if we're to go with 68 being required for 5th, here's the most likely scenario where I could see that happening. Brentford h win Leicester a win Man U. H win Palace h win Villa a lose Ipswich h win Brighton a lose Chelsea h win Arsenal a lose Everton h win

I doubt this goes to pens but if it does who do you lot think takes them? Only player I feel comfortable taking pens is isak. Maybe Bruno as well if he wasn't having such a weird season. Id have added Gordon to at list also but he's suspended

I think, city, forest (they have a fairly easy run of games), arsenal and Liverpool are pretty much set for top four now. I think us and Chelsea have to be favourites for 5th place. Chelsea have a harder run of games than we do imo, but without botman and hall I'm not confident that well be able to keep getting results from lesser sides.

Hopefully we have enough headroom this summer to splash on a RW, GK, and CB. Ideally I'd have also liked to strengthen LB so we aren't overly reliant on hall staying fit, replaced trippier with someone younger at RB, and replace Wilson with a more reliable second choice striker but we won't definitely won't have the money for those things.

Loss against Liverpool was to be expected, we can still manage CL but we need to turn our performances around. Fortunately we have a break in PL games, and I'm hoping botman and Isak will be back next pl game. I reckon we can get 5th if we: Lose to Arsenal away - the hard game Get 2 wins and 2 losses out of Vila away, Everton at home, West ham away, and Brighton away - the games we have historically struggled with but are by no means unwinnable. Get draws from Chelsea at home, and Manu at home - games we could very well win but I don't feel comfortable enough calling. Beat Leicester away, Palace at home, Ipswich at home, and Brentford at home - games we should really in theory win. I think that's the most realistic course of events I can see and would land us on 64 points which I'm hoping would be enough for 5th but the issue is were so inconsistent.

Would also throw Brighton away in as a game where we will struggle to get points

Assuming 5th place is CL this year (I'm not entirely sure how likely this is at the moment, as I'll be honest I don't quite understand how that stuff works), I think we have a fair chance even with our recent disappointment in form. I think we will lose to L pool, and I personally think we will lose to Arsenal away as well as I think they will be out for blood this time. With that said, I think we need the following to secure 5th place: Get 2 wins out of Vila away, Everton at home, West ham away, and Brighton away. None of those will be easy games though, we struggle against Brighton and West ham home or away, we struggle to Villa away (thrash them at home but this is away), and we just have weird luck against Everton. Still I think winning half of these and losing the other half is doable. Get draws from Chelsea at home, and Manu at home. Some will say that we can easily win at least one of these (probs man u), and maybe they are right but I still think these will be tough games and if we get a win from either of these then all the better. Beat Leicester away, Palace at home, Ipswich at home, and Brentford at home. All games we should in theory be able to win. That would have us ending the league on 64 points which I think will be enough for 5th this season. It would have gotten us 5th last season, and is around double the number of points that got us 5th at the end of the first half of the season.

Honestly arsenal aside we've been pretty dire for quite a few games now. Not that I expected to win this one but make them work for it at least. All the people who think we've got a good chance against Liverpool in the final are in for a shock unfortunately

If Villa beats city...we might just go on to win this.

Fuck man just thought, now I'm gonna have to cheer for spurs tomorrow.