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The 2011-2012 Betting Thread: Last call for 2011/12 football, pretty much


Stu

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Guest idlebob

Small stake on

 

Go Ahead Eagles

Willem II

Sparta Rotterdam

Lech Poznan

Verona

 

Do you trust the Jupiler League?

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Guest idlebob

Small stake on

 

Go Ahead Eagles

Willem II

Sparta Rotterdam

Lech Poznan

Verona

 

Do you trust the Jupiler League?

 

Won a few times on it before. Go with the form teams. Goals, goals, goals in this league.

 

I think it's a bit suspect, myself

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Looking at the amazing super spreadsheet, I find it very hard to accept that form is that reliable a tool when not given any context. For example, the Wycombe vs Notts County game looks like an away banker according to the spreadsheet, but I find that game very hard to call. County just lost 2-4 at home to 10 man Bury ffs, and Wycombe almost held league-topping Charlton away from home, ultimately losing 2-1. Wycombe are desperate for the win to get out of the relegation zone, County are in the lowest playoff place, so need a result too.

 

Would avoid this game like the plague.

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Possibly going in heavy on a team called Concordia from Romania this afternoon. Saw a tip on another site and looks quite good. Will wait till its inplay on bet365 though I think. Don't fancy any other games today really, possibly Lech Poznan and Verona.

 

Had a look at Concordia and followed this. Made a tidy profit. :thup:

 

Went for a Verona Monaco double. Monaco have won their last 5 and are looking unstoppable with a new manager. Looking good value at 2.90 aswell.

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Guest idlebob

Looking at the amazing super spreadsheet, I find it very hard to accept that form is that reliable a tool when not given any context. For example, the Wycombe vs Notts County game looks like an away banker according to the spreadsheet, but I find that game very hard to call. County just lost 2-4 at home to 10 man Bury ffs, and Wycombe almost held league-topping Charlton away from home, ultimately losing 2-1. Wycombe are desperate for the win to get out of the relegation zone, County are in the lowest playoff place, so need a result too.

 

Would avoid this game like the plague.

 

I'd agree that the context of the match matters, but since both teams have a lot to play I'd assume that will cancel itself out.  I'll definitely be going in large on County tomorrow, along with Arsenal and Sheff U

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Looking at the amazing super spreadsheet, I find it very hard to accept that form is that reliable a tool when not given any context. For example, the Wycombe vs Notts County game looks like an away banker according to the spreadsheet, but I find that game very hard to call. County just lost 2-4 at home to 10 man Bury ffs, and Wycombe almost held league-topping Charlton away from home, ultimately losing 2-1. Wycombe are desperate for the win to get out of the relegation zone, County are in the lowest playoff place, so need a result too.

 

Would avoid this game like the plague.

 

I'd agree that the context of the match matters, but since both teams have a lot to play I'd assume that will cancel itself out.  I'll definitely be going in large on County tomorrow, along with Arsenal and Sheff U

 

 

My own version of the 'sheet' (right window) suggests the bookies (well, betfair, left) are about right.

 

http://img716.imageshack.us/img716/1543/wycnottsc.jpg

 

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Guest idlebob

Looking at the amazing super spreadsheet, I find it very hard to accept that form is that reliable a tool when not given any context. For example, the Wycombe vs Notts County game looks like an away banker according to the spreadsheet, but I find that game very hard to call. County just lost 2-4 at home to 10 man Bury ffs, and Wycombe almost held league-topping Charlton away from home, ultimately losing 2-1. Wycombe are desperate for the win to get out of the relegation zone, County are in the lowest playoff place, so need a result too.

 

Would avoid this game like the plague.

 

I'd agree that the context of the match matters, but since both teams have a lot to play I'd assume that will cancel itself out.  I'll definitely be going in large on County tomorrow, along with Arsenal and Sheff U

 

 

My own version of the 'sheet' (right window) suggests the bookies (well, betfair, left) are about right.

 

http://img716.imageshack.us/img716/1543/wycnottsc.jpg

 

Is that your own creation?

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Is that your own creation?

 

I got someone with the programming skills to code it for me, I just told him how to weight form, home / away, context and some other stuff.

 

It basically takes every game from the season so far and comes up with correct score possibilities, but the more recent games add more to the count, so it has form weighting.

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Guest idlebob

I bottled dynamo, thought odds were poo

 

11/1 at half time looked decent to me.  Feel they needed to score before now though

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Guest idlebob

 

Is that your own creation?

 

I got someone with the programming skills to code it for me, I just told him how to weight form, home / away, context and some other stuff.

 

It basically takes every game from the season so far and comes up with correct score possibilities, but the more recent games add more to the count, so it has form weighting.

 

How did you decide on the weighting to apply?  And do you feel as if it works?

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