The College Dropout

Harrison would mean Almiron doesn't start and perhaps Trippier isn't on every single set-piece. I didn't like at the fees quoted but he's better than Miggy for me

I've said similar recently. It was a lot of money. A LOT. It seems like we went far into quality and "proven" pedigree rather than quantity and less proven. And it just hasn't worked out this season. Most people wanted a first-choice LB, backup RB, 2 CMs & a right winger (and a replacement for first team departures). We signed 1 CM, the backup RB and a backup LB (and a replacement for a departure). All expensive premium options. Would people have accepted 2 lower quality players over Tonali in July? I don't think many tbf.

So he's out for the season then?

He’s played more than half a season in 2 of his 3 full seasons here. And if our main striker could stay fit himself - there would be less load on Wilson which would lead to less injuries for Wilson. We all know Wilson can’t play 90 3 times a week. We should never put him in that position. Anyways that’s me done. Cheers lads.

Wilson’s fee is still being amortised so you can take a few million off that. And then you’re committing to that £10m for the next few years. Wilson’s amortisation cost is low. There are situations where it makes sense to sell. I just think it’s a massive risk. I’d sooner sell Longstaff for £10m.

These are square pegs for round holes. And very expensive. And that’s the profile we would need to replace Wilson. Unless it makes FFP sense, it doesn’t make sense.

Let's put that into perspective: Joao Pedro - Watford to Brighton £30m Dominik Solanke - Liverpool to Bournemouth £19-24m (4 years ago) Matheus Cunha - Atleti to Wolves £44m So an ideal Wilson replacement as backup would cost £30m. Or a kid who would take 5 years and 100 professional games as a starter to be a strong PL player. Apart from Cunha all of these would cost more atp. If we could get a bargain like City got with Alvarez (who is really a #10 and far less prolific and clinical than Wilson) who is absolute quality in a few positions. Sure. But most of the suggestions I've seen are super expensive and would expect to start more often than not.

If we qualify for the Conference League - this season is a decent one to me. Would hope we would win it too.

What type of player is that? These are players worth about £50m in today's market and would expect to start for any PL team not regularly in the CL. If you mean positionally flexible I agree - but that is literally Anthony Gordon. This is literally Chris Wood and everyone cried and complained when he started or came on. It's Anthony Gordon. His back-up at LW has been injured most of the season and the backups backup has had to play in his primary position all season because his rotation/backups have been injured all season and suspended. He's also now injured and maybe for the season. It all stems from Tonali's injury. If Tonali is available, Joelinton can rest more and play LW more often and Gordon can get some rest and play ST.

The article I shared shows how it’s very difficult to have a second backup striker. If you sign a striker with the purpose of being backup - then he’s just not good enough to play regularly. I think Isak, Wilson and Gordon as backup is as fine a 3 as you can get on a budget. With less injuries you have Barnes, Joelinton and even Willock that can move into the LW if Gordon has to play upfront. A true backup striker is like Chris Wood. and we need to have Isak a bit more reliable.

The Plan B striker: Who are they, how do you sign one and which players should you avoid? https://theathletic.com/5192114/2024/01/11/how-do-you-sign-a-plan-b-striker/?source=user_shared_article one reason I don’t think it’s worth selling Wilson. It’s difficult having a backup striker as good as him.

I say this all the time and I’ll say it again. The reason Brighton have gone from a team in League 1 to finishing 6th in the PL is their owner Tony Bloom. He’s the primary architect of Brightons data led approach to everything. He owns a data company. The Brentford owner used to work for him and follows a similar model. Dan Ashworth was a cog not the heart or brains.

Yeh Longstaff. Easily.

Of course. It’s only going to stop when we upgrade Miggy.

Because they wanted to spread the amortisation for the immediate accounts, not in a year or twos time. So Fernandez on the 8 year deal is 100/8 = 12.5m for account year 23/24. And every year after. If they signed him on a 5-year deal it would be 100/5 = 20m for account year 23/24. That's given them an additional 7.5m to spend for 23/24.

2 of those are FFP blocked and the 3rd is among the best in the country at making data-led transfer decisions which is how they ended up with Ivan Toney and Bryan Mbeumo for a combined £15m. The transfer market is going to stall or go into deflation IMO. In the PL aside from promoted clubs, few clubs have a lot of headroom to invest. The likes of Crystal Palace simply won't invest if they don't have too to survive. We don't know if Saudi will continue to invest. And other European leagues are dependent on PL transfer money.

I think it's a case of wrong messenger rather than the point. He's seemingly replying to my "desktop scouting" line and taken it more seriously than intended hence his own "never claimed scouting knowledge" line. But I think you've communicated the point I was trying to make perfectly. My overall point is I think our squad would benefit from another close-to Bruno level passer or two. This Ederson lad looks a good player but doesn't seem to be the type of player that I personally think we need to evolve (not scrap). It's more (hopefully better quality) of the same.

No actually... I think Klopp's traditional style can lead to increased (mental and physical) fatigue and fitness issues. Same with Bielsa - both managers' teams have been suggested to suffer excessively from tiredness and fatigue at points. I think this is partly why Klopp has rotated more and brought in more technical players over the years to balance things out - a little. He's kept the core ethos but adapted it to the times and physical limitations of the players in. Brighton have a relatively small squad. They've had injuries too. But with the rotation and possession they have (although it's still a v. quick and frantic game) I think they will finish the season strongly. I think Arsenal are playing with more control, a less intense style this season. If they can sort out the goalscoring problem, I think they will have a strong finish to the season despite having a more demanding schedule this year than last. We've seen strong finishes to a season from Rafa who wanted us to play a little more football and rotated more than most of our other managers.

I think you've taken my "desktop scouting" line too literally.

Go down to the KDB example for a good illustration https://www.reddit.com/media?url=https%3A%2F%2Fi.redd.it%2Fq0cqb34zc5291.png

Almiron's fee is still being amortised. There's just little left at this point. He signed a 5.5 year deal at around £22m. So let's call it £4m p/a. 4 years into the deal he signs a 3.5 year extension. So £16m has been amortised with £6m remaining over 3.5 years. So about £1.5m amortisation p/a. By the summer there will be £3m or so (rough figures) remaining. So it's still slightly better to see a HG player than him. BUT.. I assume his wages are higher than all the HG players so there will be a bigger saving from that. The advantage of this for us is that.. when we give big-money signings new contracts, the bump in wages is somewhat offset by spreading out the fee amortisation over a longer term.

I think any style of football that requires elite physical exertion is always going to run into increased fatigue and fitness issues. So you need a very deep squad to cope. With FFP limitations that's tough to put together. Liverpool has had this issue and we are even more demanding than them. I think slightly more possession-based styles scale better at the elite level. I think greater rotation scales better at the elite level.

?? Not claiming to be an expert on a player when I do this. I just get an idea of what he's meant to be good at and the stats show potential limitations and how they rank against other players in their position. And it let's you assess the media narrative e.g. some called Tonali a young Pirlo. The stats didn't back that up and the compilations look more all-action. Similarly Pope's stats suggested he was a far superior GK to Dubravka - especially commanding the area and sweeping/coming off his line. Those things turned out to be exactly what happened. It didn't show Pope can't kick or pass but it gave a decent view of the players strengths and weaknesses.

Something like 8 league goals. 22. Pacy wide forward. I think Gordon would be worth more but would use Johnson as a minimum benchmark. Richarlison went for £60m the year before but I think being a Brazilian international adds some value.

Agreed. I think we could benefit from being a little less physically demanding and a little more technical. If you look at the evolution of Liverpool's midfield, it's a slightly more technical approach to a high-press game. Lose a little physically but gain more technically. It's a balance but our dial is pushed pretty far to the physical atm. The other lad from Italy we are looking at looks a good player. Not a passer either though.