The College Dropout

The article explains it. It’s less to do with position in the table and more to do with a gigantic economic advantage over the field that allows years of mismanagement and still being close to competitive. Leicester got everything right in except qualify for the CL the second and third time and they’ve paid the price. Us and Villa will need to get nearly everything right over the next 2-5 years to even begin to get onto the financial coattails of the big 6. Again it’s about finances and hitting a ceiling - checkmate. If not for the emergence of Yankuba Minteh and his breakout season, we would’ve sold a purple in the summer - on the cheap - without being replaced. Or a points deduction that would end our chances of qualifying for the CL. We need to consistently perform 8/10 on and off the pitch for us to be long term competitive. 2 years of bad transfer windows, expensive signings that flop etc., a bad managerial hire and we are in trouble. Probably not relegation but something in the magnitude of Everton. ‘Big 6’ can weather 5 years of underperformance and still be in a better financial position than the field. Thats the difference. Agreed. We have to get everything right on the pitch for a sustained period of time. The others don’t. It’s possible but you can’t bank on it. Excellent post. Key question you raised: where are we getting the consistent 60% growth from?

There’s not a big 7 tbf. We are a few bad decisions away from being Leicester.

That was primarily to do a FFP swap deal with Anderson I believe.

Hes's a bit of a NO cult hero tbh. Someone described him as possessing "a wand of a left foot" or similar.

So many pages since I last looked. Any actual stories? I doubt it.

Liverpool can afford to be top 5 ’good’ from here and win the league. I reckon they could win the league with 85 points. Think Arsenal can only get low 80 points this season. The small squad has caught up to them. Going out the FA Cup, skipping the play offs and hopefully not making the league cup final gives them the best chance possible though. Fixture congestion for City is a bonus too. The levels, age and performances will make that harder than usual. Bernardo Silva has already played 30 games this season. Atleast 3 more CL games to go. Hopefully 5.

You didn’t bother reading the article Its the revenue and everything that drives it. Interest around the world, viewership, fan base etc. Arsenal had 5 years out the CL. A couple good seasons and they are signing players for £100m and tying down the likes lf Saka to long term deals. Leicester had 5 good years, couldn’t get close revenue wise. Missed out on CL, relegation - narrowly escaped a points deduction, fighting relegation again. The new CL format and the new PSR rules makes it virtually impossible for a challenger club to qualify for the CL in successive seasons. I’d be delighted with 3 in 5 tbh swapping with Villa at the expense of Chelsea and Spurs.

Bournemouth style is best against teams that come out and play though. Against teams that will sit back and be happy for a draw, i reckon they might struggle more for goals. Didn't happen against Forest but they were at home and the first goal went the right way for them.

Agreed. I wouldn't rule them out but the games are coming thick and fast. Winning against Celtic, qualifying for the R16 straight away, and losing to Spurs would be ideal for them. Opposite is best for us.

We’d move closer to a 4231. We’ve at times played with Joelinton in advance of our 2 bosses in midfield.

We haven’t signed anyone that plays regularly in over a year. We don’t know what our strategy is.

A lot of is PSR juggling. Maatsen has barely played in the league but that’s a good signing and also a FFP move.

People look at things simplistically. Doesn’t like to spend money = Mike Ashley. And Spurs have spent plenty of money in recent years. Way more than us.

Levy is not like Ashley. Spurs legit have top 6 revenues. They've spent £500m over the last 3 years. The lionshare of that has been on kids though, literal teenagers who must be paid fairly lowly. Best case scenario for Spurs is Levy is thinking 3-4 years ahead and wants another Bale, Carrick type era with the best kids available. If that's the case, Ange was always going to be a transition manager. You can see a similar approach at Chelsea. That team lacks character and leadership - the oldest players are like 25 years old.

I know how FFP works and while I’m not an accountant I seemingly know more about it than you. Our wages were 75% of revenue alone. Add amortisation and we are likely already eating into our allowable losses. Whenever the UEFA and PL rule changes kick-in our wages and amortisation costs must be a maximum of 75% (or close - forget off hand) of revenue. Forecasting From the facts we know today, that’s going to be difficult to achieve while keeping our best players and significantly improving the squad.

Again - we must know different Arsenal fans. That Isak plate went viral because they were excited. Again - this is a team that had Lacazette up top. Let's agree to disagree.

Not worried about other teams massively. If we get to 68 points we'll qualify for the CL. 5 other teams aren't going to do that, doesn't matter which 5. Those 6 clubs are so close together for a reason after 23 games. There's reasons for and against everyone. Across all factors we probably rank slap in the middle. 4th-6th.

Think he got 15 minutes against Man U at 6 before Targett got injured in a league cup game. Or maybe it was the other way around.

I disagree man. Those times they had Lacazette upfront. We must know a whole different type of Arsenal fan. And they will be replaced by years when our amortisation and squad costs are so high vs revenue that we can't spend significant amounts of money without sales. The proof is literally in the pudding our recent transfer record and the comments from Howe and that players agents. No it doesn't. Amortisation only drops with sales and contract extensions (and releases). Typically speaking - if your squad is improving and you are renewing your best players AND buying more players, your amortisation and wages costs will only increase. The new CL format is more lucrative, I think the minimum a club like ours would make has risen but I'm not sure what the figure is. All-in it must be closer to £40m as from memory we made about £30m the last time. But the new CL format is a killer for the PL for us and Howe's style. It's a nice one-off bump. But what we need is guaranteed recurring revenue. A productive academy/player sales, commercial deals and a stadium.

He's been performing at a highly productive level for over a year. His G/A ratio last season was top too. This is a fairly accurate view of what he's like as a player. In general play, he's not giving much. But in the final third, he's consistently created chances. 15 PL assists in 30 PL starts from last season to this. Evenly spread between the two seasons. This is not a Miggy Almiron purple patch.

Good luck Miggy. Great attitude. It's been a benchmark for this Howe side and I hope we can maintain it without him.

Yeh this is in response to a League Cup game and trying different approaches. I also suggested Sandro at 6 there but I admit - I didn't think it would work... but I wanted to see it given a go. Eddie tried Sandro at 6 in the next league cup game and that was the start of our renaissance - so I guess there was value in my comment Likewise with Hall, he's such a brilliant player in low-stakes games i'd like to see him in midfield. Early League Cup or FA Cup games against lower league opposition are an opportunity to experiment. But I'm not suggesting we bring Targett at LB and Hall to CM and remove Joelinton going forward. Best to take my posts in good faith rather than trying to find silly holes. Look at the context.

No I didn’t lol. I wanted Hall in for Burn. In relation to FFP overspend which is true. Which is why we haven’t done similar again. A Range Rover is too much money on a £50k salary. That doesn’t mean the range isn’t worth the money but you shouldn’t spend it.

Always liked the look of Etikite. Baller. Question was his mentality but he was talented.

Levy is building for the next manager anyway. Maybe the one after that. They’ve bought a lot of top rated teenagers. And they’ve got loads of PSR headspace.