The College Dropout

Feels like the Owner dictates the approach. They've chanegd DOF but it's still a high turnover of players. Similar thing at Villa - always wheeling and dealing

There's no such thing as "whoever is left". We can look for different profiles and different markets, look at loans. When you decide you mostly need PL experience or a £60m+ forward then yeh your options might be limited. And some of the worst transfers were pretty high-up our list. Elanga and Ramsey.

I don't think Eddie would decide to spend so much money on a teenage fullback as his fullback signing for the first team. Most managers wouldn't unless they knew they had the time to bed them in over years - which few do. Hall was essentially 3rd choice LB for most of that season. After a couple bad 45 minute starts, he was benched. I also think perhaps the terminology is too strong. I think Howe agreed to the signing and was happy enough with it. But i'm confident his preference would've been a 24/25 yo Anthonee Robinson who would go straight into the first team. And had we signed Robinson we probably would've qualified for Europe simply not playing Burn at FB so much (as we would a non-suspension Tonali etc.) but we've the better left-back now. The more influence Howe has had on transfers, the more experienced our signings have been. Few clubs spend big bucks on teenagers, and if they d,o it's usually a club-driven transfer rather than a manager - unless the manager IS the club (Wenger, SAF).

I'm not some doom and gloom merchant. He is what he is, let's get support him to be the best he can be. He does have talents.

Imagine our competition is Sunderland, Liverpool, Everton and Man U, Man City. Demographic shifts - you still expect the midland/southern/London clubs to have an advantage. You'll get lads doing the Sterling to Liverpool, Sancho to City but most will stick to the London/south-east Academies.

I'm not blaming Howe for any signings. He shouldn't be in a position to sanction spending £55m on Elanga. @The Prophet Staveley was involved in every transfer window during her time at the club. Maybe not in an official capacity, but she spoke to prospective players and agents and was also seemingly the main conduit to PIF. From what i've read she had her fingers in every pie, although she allowed others to make decisions, she definitely retained influence/pressure (e.g. the Joelinton contract).

I agree with this. It is disappointing. But he can't play them to justify their signings alone. With the injuries and fixtures piling up again both will get their chance to start.

I hear it. And I am the same. We are getting to the stage as a club where cup runs mean nothing unless we get to Finals. And tbh I wouldn't be saying it if we had Southampton in the semi's. But taking a step back - we don't have the squad to compete on 4 fronts.

Great and informative post. Youth is one area we can just throw money at it and good pieces will stick. If only 10% make it, it will pay for the whole thing 20x

You said - we haven't a clue about what Howe thinks. Howe is picking football teams twice a week. He makes subs - usually the same subs. Patterns appear. It's pretty obvious what he thinks, actually. I think some fans - maybe like yourself jump to massive conclusions based on the evidence. If Howe doesn't trust a player right now, it doesn't mean he will forever not trust them. You were probably one of those writing Hall off or being in denial about where Hall stood in his first season.

Both are the level of player you expect us to be able to scout and pickup for sub £30/20m at 25 years old.

I enjoy reading your posts - thanks for the effort. My takes aren't meant to discredit your data or opinions btw - just constructive feedback

We've had so little that I think some fans think a decent level of competence means no mistakes or miscalculations have been made. Even the best-run clubs don't have the alchemy of successful signings down to a perfect science.

Aye Miley has continually performed well when brought in during injury crisis - not only getting him minutes in those moments but pushing him up the pecking order in general. He's now 4th choice CM. At the start of the season, he was behind a switch to a back 5

Have you looked into bookies odds? I think they would have better formulas than using last years finishing position. While they are still shit this season I think Spurs (A) is tougher from the bookies than their 15th place finish last season. And obviously home and away matters and is overly simplified based on league position. Also 12 is a big pool size. When talking form it's usually the last 5-6 in the league, not 12.

I don't think Livra or Hall were Howe signings - especially not Hall. As a football manager who prioritises winning right now (and Howe does exactly that), you wouldn't sign a 19-yo to come in and be your first-choice LB. We were linked with Anthonee Robinson too and he fits the Howe profile exactly. Lots of experience but still relatively young at the time. Tall and athletic but can play. Hall was always likely to need a year or 2 to develop. The more influence Howe has had on transfers the less we've looked to sign younger players for the first team.

There are some fairly obvious changes in transfers that also track with key personnel leaving. Easy example - since Ashworth left we've not signed a player 21 or under to start or as second choice. Since Staveley left we've struggled to sign high reputation players that might otherwise end up at big European clubs or top 6 - Woltemade maybe an exception but he didn't have the same pedigree of a Tonali, Isak etc.

Maybe that's what you do. I think Howe trusts Pope more than Ramsdale. Because when both are declared fit it is Pope that consistently starts. I think Howe doesn't trust Ramsey or Elanga at the moment to start to play the majority of football matches. Because both can have players in their position injured and Howe still won't start them. Both are getting less starts now than they did at the start of the season. That's not to say things can't change. With injuries and fatigue for others I expect they both start tomorrow. But unless their performances improve I can see Howe going with a back 5 to avoid playing both of them on the weekend.

You go into a fixture run like that - you probably have too. I expect at least one of those fixtures Howe will rotate the team and leave out key players against a stronger side or in a Cup.

The last 5 being: Villa (H) Wolves (A) Leeds (H) Palace (H) Burnley (A) You would hope to get 15 points from those. 11 being solid. We got 10. Not terrible. But it was definitely a run you would expect to make hay in. Fixtures often make form. We would look at 10 points from the next 5 as excellent. Rightfully so. Aye you would want 6 points as a minimum. A win at WHL is always an excellent result no matter what Spurs are like.

Sunk cost fallacy that. Howe will pick the team he thinks can win games. What he's paid for players doesn't matter at this point and is a good thing.

The next 5 being.. Liverpool (A) Brentford (H) Spurs (A) City (A) Everton (H) 9 points would be excellent. 7 solid. 6 bare minimum. Could easily get 4 points. Wouldn't expect to climb the table with anything less than 8 points.

Because the manager wants to win football matches right now.

We’ve had a relatively easy run the last 12 games. We’ll almost certainly get less points over the next 12 just due tougher fixtures. In the last 12 we played 3 promoted teams - 2 at home. Wolves, Palace, Chelsea and Spurs at home. In the next 12 we face Arsenal, Liverpool, Man City, Chelsea, Spurs away. Last year we got 3 points from those? The season we finished 4th - 5?

I think the whole transfer window approach was a car crash. It’s not isolated to last summer alone. The Guehu saga the previous year is evidence that we’ve struggled to identify and sign high reputation players since Staveley left. When Staveley was here we routinely signed players frequently linked to bigger clubs but we’ve lost some ability to persuade imo. And the profiling hasn’t been right (the big PL experience one in particular). We’ve stopped buying high ceiling youngsters in the Gordon, Tino and Hall mould. The window necessitated a good league finish this year. And it’s unlikely to happen. The bad thing is I think that was somewhat obvious in September. We didn’t get the quality or the numbers needed. The last time we qualified for the CL, I thought we got good quality but we didn’t have the numbers. Knowing what we know now PSR was the reason for that. I also think Howe wanted more trusted entities from that window.