The College Dropout

Watkins has a poor penalty record. Don’t know why they were hyping him. Isn’t Tielemans the regular taker?

Aye. Thats the biggest problem. A lack of dynamism in midfield. It’s transition upon transition with the old boys in there

Will enjoy them going out too tbf. Just would prefer another 2 games and then going out.

A lot of ppl complaining don’t actually watch football. City aren’t a top side atm. They are 20 something in this format for good reason.

City in a play off is better for our chances of top 4. More games for their old boys less prep time for the league.

Agreed. I also use it to question my beliefs or assumptions. Like the Miggy purple patch vs the Murphy purple patch. The expected data indicates one was a purple patch and the other isn't.

Believe most Xg models take this into account. Personalising it to particular players doesn't make sense and loses the value of Xg. The Xg of a penalty is 0.8 let's say. It being a .95 xg for Ivan Toney and a 0.6Xg for Michael Owen ruins the value of the metric. The standardisation is what makes it powerful. A 0.4 Xg shot is a "big chance". That goes in 1 every 3 attempts. Most hat-tricks are scored from an Xg of under 2.25. In a low-scoring sport, scoring 3 in a game requires an element of a "hot hand" that is a little improbable Aye. It's either meant "the team isn't creating any chances at all and won't score all night" or... "The team is creating and missing loads of chances and this will keep happening". In both instances, there's a loss of belief that becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy that everyone can see and feel. It's why teams like Real Madrid don't lose that belief and when they score it's "they always find a way". But it's all narrative.

Brest vs Madrid for me. Winner qualifies for the R16 straight. Loser in the play offs.

PSG didn’t look like scoring…. Because they kept missing.

PSG missed a number of chances against us. So many that you knew they wouldn’t score from open play. It was one of those games they were never going to score. BUT they did create a lot. Poor finishing, good goalkeeping and desperate defending kept us in it. It was wave after wave of attack and chance. Arsenal league cup game was similar but not so one sided. A couple great chances, a few good ones. Eventually you knew they wouldn’t score but if the score was 2-2 we couldn’t complain.

Also need to align to the new squad cost rules.

The Felix signing is a bad one though IMO. Not even like for like.

It's a risk but given FFP - one I would take myself.

Agreed. Duran might implode as a player though.

Sustained sporting success and financial success are intrinsically linked. The bolded needs to happen over a sustained period. Both clubs have finished above us in 1 of the last 2 seasons. Man U winning 2 trophies in the process.

True - I mean, it's not like they are selling a player in their spine Martinez - Pau - McGinn - Watkins He's been a big player for them this season but it's not like us selling Isak or Bruno

He doesn’t really need replacing though. He’s not part of that core spine. It’s like losing a superior Harvey Barnes or a young Trippier.

It does bur a lot of their transfer business is with a FFP hat on. This will give them some free rein to go again with a player that didn’t drive their success.

The article explains it. It’s less to do with position in the table and more to do with a gigantic economic advantage over the field that allows years of mismanagement and still being close to competitive. Leicester got everything right in except qualify for the CL the second and third time and they’ve paid the price. Us and Villa will need to get nearly everything right over the next 2-5 years to even begin to get onto the financial coattails of the big 6. Again it’s about finances and hitting a ceiling - checkmate. If not for the emergence of Yankuba Minteh and his breakout season, we would’ve sold a purple in the summer - on the cheap - without being replaced. Or a points deduction that would end our chances of qualifying for the CL. We need to consistently perform 8/10 on and off the pitch for us to be long term competitive. 2 years of bad transfer windows, expensive signings that flop etc., a bad managerial hire and we are in trouble. Probably not relegation but something in the magnitude of Everton. ‘Big 6’ can weather 5 years of underperformance and still be in a better financial position than the field. Thats the difference. Agreed. We have to get everything right on the pitch for a sustained period of time. The others don’t. It’s possible but you can’t bank on it. Excellent post. Key question you raised: where are we getting the consistent 60% growth from?

There’s not a big 7 tbf. We are a few bad decisions away from being Leicester.

That was primarily to do a FFP swap deal with Anderson I believe.

Hes's a bit of a NO cult hero tbh. Someone described him as possessing "a wand of a left foot" or similar.

So many pages since I last looked. Any actual stories? I doubt it.

Liverpool can afford to be top 5 ’good’ from here and win the league. I reckon they could win the league with 85 points. Think Arsenal can only get low 80 points this season. The small squad has caught up to them. Going out the FA Cup, skipping the play offs and hopefully not making the league cup final gives them the best chance possible though. Fixture congestion for City is a bonus too. The levels, age and performances will make that harder than usual. Bernardo Silva has already played 30 games this season. Atleast 3 more CL games to go. Hopefully 5.

You didn’t bother reading the article Its the revenue and everything that drives it. Interest around the world, viewership, fan base etc. Arsenal had 5 years out the CL. A couple good seasons and they are signing players for £100m and tying down the likes lf Saka to long term deals. Leicester had 5 good years, couldn’t get close revenue wise. Missed out on CL, relegation - narrowly escaped a points deduction, fighting relegation again. The new CL format and the new PSR rules makes it virtually impossible for a challenger club to qualify for the CL in successive seasons. I’d be delighted with 3 in 5 tbh swapping with Villa at the expense of Chelsea and Spurs.