Boring Seahawks post:
I'm torn on what I think the Seahawks should do with the 5th and 20th pick of the draft.
The main issue this year by a distance was the defensive front seven. In terms of problem areas, I'd probably say:
1. Interior D-Line
2. Edge
<big gap>
3. WR3
=4. Centre
=4. LB
QB doesn't feature top five IMO. The Geno Smith story was incredible. He was accurate, a good decision maker, could play aggressive when needed, didn't rattle and even had surprising athleticism for a vet QB. The sample size of a whole season was too big for it to be a fluke or a purple patch.
Generating QB pressure against league average lines was a problem all year. We couldn't bring pressure with a 3-4 defence. We cycled through blitzing, simulated pressure, dropping more DBs back into coverage - and none of it worked. A lot of it just hurt the run D - which was poor to begin with. I think the secondary is pretty promising. Not just Tariq Woolen, but the likes of Michael Jackson, Ryan Neal and Coby Bryant. Quandre Diggs had a bit of a down year but has shown he can be pretty excellent. Jamal Adams I am just hoping we cut. The guy can't stay healthy and has never proved capable in coverage. I think Schneider has enough goodwill following the 2022 draft class picks to just eat that Jamal Adams-shaped mistake unscathed.
Run D was horrendous too. Poona Ford is in a contract year but hasn't developed as I had hoped. Feels inevitable he'll sign somewhere else and become a monster/SB winner.
It looks like Jalen Carter and Will Anderson will be gone off the board by pick 5. I don't know much about college football but Tyree Wilson seems like the next hottest shit after those two along the D-Line.
Looking at previous drafts, the likes of Thibodeaux and Ja'Marr Chase have gone at pick 5. I've never seen the Seahawks have a pick this high. That's a (potentially) transformative level talent pick. Canny exciting, but I've heard of the Schneider tendency to trade back, so not holding my breath. And who knows - if a QB needy team with a lower-round first pick this year comes calling, it's fun following two first round draft picks for 2024 (i.e. our native 2024 1st, and theirs) . And I won't have to root against Russell Wilson this time.
As a fickle/impressionable human, I of course also want a sexy first rounder. DK Metcalf made some big leaps forward this season after a disappointing previous one. Tyler Lockett remains one of the games greatest underrated receivers IMO. His spectacular ball-tracking and route running have, I'm sure, richly enhanced the deep ball success rate of both Russell Wilson and Geno Smith over the years - but he's no spring chicken, and we need a third WR anyway to give better Ds more to think about. I've watched a Youtube reel of Jaxon Smith-Njigba and convinced myself he'll be there at pick 20, and he's Ja'Marr Chase 2.0
So those my thoughts, except.... I'm slowly coming around to the idea of drafting a QB at 5 despite loving Geno this year.
I'm not really a cap space nerd but the Seahawks will only have about $20m of cap space (after an expanded selection of rookie picks and re-signing/new FAs to make up a full roster). Not really a lot of wiggle room to work with. Geno and John Schneider clearly want to do business, and assuming they land at somewhere around the franchise tag mark of circa $30m p/a, some creative accounting will be required to backload the bulk of the guaranteed money in the contract. They will also want to leave a little room for injuries etc too during the 2023 season.
That leaves things pretty tight. I think there is a world where Geno can with a Superbowl at his non-elite, but very good talent level. Kyle Shanahan and John Lynch are basically two games away from the final stage of their plan to remove the QB from their team altogether given their success with Brock Purdy. I just find it less probable that the Seahawks and Geno can win a Superbowl with this many holes on the team, and the holes to follow in future years when contracts roll off.
The dispassionate, best decision in terms of probability of future championship success would probably to draft a rookie QB at 5, and try to shoot for what the Bengals have been able to do with Burrow.
I don't know owt about the rookie QB class, mind you. From what little I've heard, doesn't seem like there's a slam dunk QB like Luck, Burrow, Lawrence were all touted to be.
