polpolpol

£25 on Ajax HT/FT @ 6.4 £5 Ajax 2-1 @ HT

'Chelsea B' are currently putting on the craziest half time show I've ever seen on behalf of a bunch of veterans from Operation Market Garden. They abandoned the game for the 44th minute in favor of clapping them. Edit: Missed the best flag-waving, but this kind of thing: http://img407.imageshack.us/img407/1796/vkel.jpg

He's only 'up' because you included agent's fees from outgoing transfers? Edit: To be a bit clearer, those headline numbers don't include the fees lost to agents or to loyalty bonuses: we pay them on incoming transfers, so they're same, but on outgoing transfers, it's money that doesn't come to NUFC so figures should be lower.

I liked Belarus from their video, but they seemed to bottle the semi-final performance.

Georgia to win / top 3,4,5 Ireland top 4, 10 Belgium top 10. £5 on each.

I'm sure this was said yesterday, but I'm not sure Tiote has ever been invisible. He's never hidden in any game I've seen. His problem is despite being solid for most of the game he makes errors that cost us dear. Certainly moreso this season. He's one of the internationals at the club being played where he is most comfortable though. There is an argument that Perch has had a better season when played, so he should play. If he made that selection choice though, the amount of grief given to Pardew on here would be unreal. Guaranteed. If Perch in midfield is the answer, what's the question?

http://img341.imageshack.us/img341/1669/bosw.jpg

The board’s ‘Roadmap to Survival’ (which is the base level expected from any manger, as relegation costs so much), demonstrated around the replacement of Hughton with Pardew, is to create a team that would guarantee a survival points total by (1) beating teams in the bottom half and (2) winning home games, achieving this by playing attacking football. The Carr signings have to been seen in the context of this plan. Pardew has backed himself into a corner with his weird ‘broken football’ style because it transforms the games he has to win into these scrappy, 50/50, goal here or there, turgid, tact(ic)less, lotteries. If something happens at the end of the season, it’ll be a based on his failure to win the games he was appointed to win – the distribution of his results this year are no different to Allardyce or Hughton’s before they got the boot.

Had £1.50 on ARS, MAL at half time, another £2 at full time, and £3 on HT and FT. Going to be a horrible half to watch.

Boom! What a great ref.

I like 2-1 to Madrid, that would mean Man U need two - if they get there in the middle part of the game, they might just shut the game down.

£5 on Ethiopia at 8's to win this melee in the ACN.

All kinds of bets on Arsenal winning big again.

For me its down to poor coaching and a lack of confidence or trust in each other and the tactics being deployed. Another pet hate of mine is when we are taking a corner and the ball gets cleared, what do our players do? They start getting back. What they should be doing is holding positions and making options for the man who will pick that cleared ball up. Often Simpson or Krul who just launch it back into an empty penalty box. The players should be able and want to do it instinctively, and if they don't the coaches should be all over it - a failure on both sides. It's certainly quite weird that we can see so many basic mistakes being repeated. The tendency of professional sport is towards the elimination of all these wasted seconds and lost inches, but we are constantly giving away yards, about which the staff seem indifferent.

At the level of a basic reaction to losing or gaining the ball, it shouldn't matter how unbalanced the squad is, who is missing, or how much 'pace' the side has. Professional footballers should be able to know where to run, and be bothered – even if they aren't 'fast' – to go there straight away in the transition. One of the easiest transitions in the game is after defending a corner: all you have to do is get the defensive line out of the box; it's just running in a line up the pitch, yet we saunter out as if we're going to pick up a Sunday paper.

Yes, I suspect this is the other side of it. Our style of play is 'disruptive' if anything. Lots of muddling around, throws, no movement up the pitch.* A 'broken-up' game. We look like a 90's Italian team defending a 1-0 lead, all of the time, and I can see that is a deliberate idea from the manager. Because even though we lose, the scores are close (as they were in a lot of games we were lucky to win last year) and the gamble – or calculation – that Pardew has made is that over the course of a season, is that it'll get enough points to do the trick. The question is, 'is it a good gamble?' – play this dirtily (messily, not in the sense of actually fouling) against a better team, and you even the game a little. But against poor teams, is this the style of play of maximise points? If we make the game appalling, and rely on the individuals in our side, sometimes it won't be enough; the gamble fails, so there needs to be a plan 'B' with some nice transitions. Yet the more serious problem is that this 'style', if there are a few losses in a row, when the gamble fails, begins to affect confidence, and becomes a vicious circle – the worse the players are perceived to play, the worse they become. After watching Williamson slowly dying inside, the worry becomes 'who next'. * This was very clear when I was trying to get the screen-grabs above: there were all kinds of messy breakdowns and very few orthodox turnovers.

I've been waiting to have access to some 'highlights' of the Fulham game to post something about our play in transition. There is a lot of consternation about formations, players being in position, and motivation levels; and the varying degree to which they explain the malaise in the football we produce. This is my bit of diagnosis – we're awful in the transition phase. In the 5 seconds after possession changes, the Newcastle team either can't or won't do what they should be doing, which is to rapidly adjust their position (offensive and defensive) and to move the ball (offensive) or get players around it (defensive). I seem to remember(!?) reading that about half of all goals come within 10 seconds of a change of possession, so it's quite an important aspect of the game. It should also be what the coaches are working on – conditioning the players so that they react to a turnover of possession in the most efficient way. If Newcastle players can't do it, they are either being coached ineptly, or they just don't give a fuck. I'm not sure which one it is, but here are some moments from the Fulham game to illustrate what I mean. http://img195.imageshack.us/img195/4026/tr2qf.jpg 1: Fulham gaining possession. We can see two characteristics of successful offensive transition: (1) moving the ball and (2) players moving into advanced positions. After five seconds the five numbered Fulham players have all moved a significant distance. Only one Newcastle player from the top picture is in the second. http://img11.imageshack.us/img11/1599/tr1oq.jpg 2: Newcastle win the ball and 4 seconds later it is in the same area of the pitch with the same five players around it. The Fulham players are all running back to be 'goal side'. http://img832.imageshack.us/img832/8889/tr3i.jpg 3: Newcastle break up a Fulham counter attack. 5 seconds later, all players are in the same place, the only difference is that Williamson has run back into position. The Fulham players are between the ball and their goal. http://img194.imageshack.us/img194/5540/tr4m.jpg 4: Newcastle win the ball back about two sends before this and it's moved out by Williamson. Five seconds after that pass is made they aren't further up field, and there is only one potential short pass forward, to the marked Jonas. The Defence isn't pushing up. http://img28.imageshack.us/img28/4774/tr5x.jpg 5: Newcastle win the ball back, and whilst it has been moved to Ben Arfa on the left, the other payers aren't moving far up the pitch or towards him in support. Defensively, Fulham already have 9 men in position, in lines of 5 and 4

I thought he was brilliant yesterday. I love seeing a player in ‘the hole’ who runs around and pressures the opponents in their own half, though that sort of player is rare(ly utilised) (Holtby, Capi?, Tevez??). He looks much better when he’s running quickly at someone, and therefore challenges at pace (interceptions, forcing errors) than he has done when sitting deeper – when he’s static he (obviously) is a bit lightweight and gets brushed off. I’d like to see him behind a Demba and at the attacking point of midfield in the Man City/United and Arsenal games. When built from the back, our offensive play is a rather basic; trying to get the ball high up the pitch and achieving something through intense transition might be a better way to score goals (considering our obvious tactical preference for fragmentation of the game).

Two goals from turbo-joy yesterday. Today's hopeless attempt: 1. Draw 2-2 (16:00 Chelsea v Liverpool 2. West Ham 2-0 (15:00 Newcastle v West Ham 3. Tottenham 3-2 (13:30 Man City v Tottenham 4. Monchengladbach 2-0 (16:30 Greuther Furth v Monchengladbach 5. Hannover 96 3-2 (16:30 VfB Stuttgart v Hannover 96 6. Bayer Leverkusen 2-0 (14:30 Wolfsburg v Bayer Leverkusen Gladbach 2-0 the pick of those: I reckon it should be 5-1, can get 18.

Draw 2-2 (Read - Norw) (15:00 Reading v Norwich Draw 2-2 (Wiga - West) (15:00 Wigan v West Brom Fulham 2-1 (15:00 Arsenal v Fulham Stoke 3-0 (15:00 Stoke v Qpr Everton 3-1 (15:00 Everton v Sunderland Draw 1-1 (Sout - Swan) (15:00 Southampton v Swansea

Almost enough results in the season to bring out my odds calculator: Tottenham 3-1 (19:45 Norwich v Tottenham (TV) - Correct Score) Man Utd 3-2 (19:45 Chelsea v Man Utd (TV) - Correct Score) Liverpool 3-0 (20:00 Liverpool v Swansea (TV) - Correct Score) 5000-1

Lyon in France @ c. 8-1. I also quite like Hannover and AZ in Germany and Holland, but they're more of a gamble.

Okay, Ryedale Dancer in the next at Thirsk. Have an Archducke / Ladyvie / Ryedale trixie, but the middle just came 2nd after looking good.

Archbishop in the 14.35, with a bit of place money on Ewell Place and Silverheels.

Laying Wiggins at 1.06 for top 3 in the time trial, backing Cancellara to win at 7.