timeEd32

David Ornestein is breaking news.

Totally agree on needing to find cheaper deals. I would not want to spend £20m (or anything really) on a player who is a minor upgrade. Improving massively when and where we can is how we got to where we are so quickly. It's very different though if we think that £20m player is undervalued / has a much higher ceiling. If we think Reiss Nelson is that then great.

This is actually the worst thing we can do. Settling for players who are maybe a modest improvement is how we'd get stuck in a never-ending cycle of being average with no money to spend. There is a market between Raphinha and Reiss Nelson, though maybe that player isn't available right now.

We are definitely being slept on. I think if you ran a poll of other fans you'd have as many people saying Howe gets sacked as us replicating what we did two seasons ago.

The counterpoints are he'd free up a lot of money and, if we think Tino is ready, he's blocking the path of a young player. I'm kind of neutral on selling him - depends on the deal.

£51m release clause allegedly. But also apparently Madrid have the ability to buy him back for half that or they get a 50% sell on (it's good to be rich and powerful).

I think that's the most accurate guess with what we know today. Actually for some reason in my previous math I just assumed Dubravka would go, which was maybe dumb. If you add his wages + Osula then I'd probably say £50-60m loss is current state.

Most of these are already accounted for in all the math (Swiss Ramble's or mine). I did it all in a very hand wavy sort of way for the recent stuff like Joelinton's extension savings crosses out Vlachodimos amortisation.

Some of those extensions were likely a net positive (Burn, Joelinton), some will be basically neutral (Trippier?), and then Bruno's is likely a net negative on the order of £2-3m. I'm still having a really hard time accepting we gave Gordon a 3.5 year deal. I can't imagine why we would have done that unless we had some reservations he'd be a flop or he refused to sign longer. But if we did then an extension for him should be a net positive as I don't think his wages will go up by £7m annually. Isak is probably going to be a net negative since he originally signed on a 6 year deal when that was allowed and I think he's looking at a Bruno-esque increase.

I think you may have copied Joelinton's stuff to Bruno? Bruno was five years in October 2023.

The other complicating factor is this almost certainly won't be done in an order that allows us to make sense of this in real time (e.g. buy Geuhi > sell Miggy > announce new sponsorship > buy RW). It's entirely possible we also buy a RW and then have to play catch-up ( oting that it may not be catch-up to the club, but only our perception as they obviously know about things in the pipeline well before us). The end of the window will be one checkpoint, but we could front-load expenses and resolve any issues in January/June. I'd be disappointed if we rely on that again though given what happened and also that it removes wage savings from the equation.

With all the caveats that we're dealing with ranges, etc. etc., I thought the pessimistic case was we couldn't really sign anyone without additional money* and the optimistic case was we could add £20-25m in annual costs. If Guehi happens then my assumption is we're either at or over the limit. * This can come in any form (increased revenue / player sales / saved wages)

The numbers I used included Hall, Minteh, Anderson, Kelly, Vlachodimos, and the expiring contracts, though I may have been generous on a couple things. Osula would be the only change since that post.

It is hard to know exactly, especially as we drift further from the last official release of accounts. But we know a great deal more than nothing, so it’s possible to paint a reasonable picture. I’m pretty sure this thread only exists because that picture isn’t too great at the moment. If the estimated numbers said we had £200m to spend then financial discussions would be very welcome in the transfer thread.

What he says there is basically the exact scenario Swiss Ramble outlined as the only way they could have complied.

From the Guehi thread

Man United making Berge one of their big signings would be hilarious.

I understand the clamor for a RW (obviously long overdue), but we'd be close to a similar situation this time next year at CB and who knows who would be available. Schar - 33 at end of season (contract expires June 2025) Lascelles - 31 (contract expires June 2025) Burn - 33 (contract expires June 2025) Trippier - 34 (contract expires June 2025) Krafth - 30 (contract expires June 2025) I imagine there will be at least a couple of extensions, but we're one season away from a necessary overhaul across the backline. This also gives us flexibility to not give extensions where we don't want to. Some of these players will start to decline even if they seem fine right now. This could all be a next summer problem except two of our CBs are out with ACL injuries and they likely won't be themselves at any point this season, so that has probably caused us to consider this just as urgent as RW.

Given Trippier Albert Schar Bruno Ben Arfa Ginola Robert Solano Isak Shearer Manager: Keegan Bench: Pope, Woodgate, W. Barton, Lee, Cabaye, Speed, Beardsley, Les, Bellamy Bruno would die trying to support that midfield

One day we won't even be able to keep track of the money coming in from sell-on clauses and youngsters we're moving on.

Reading through Swiss Ramble's review of their 2022/23 finances. This made me chuckle: Another reason for the growth was a significant increase in headcount from 273 to 319, though 40 of this came in lower paid administration/operations. Note. The employees section in the accounts does not add up properly, so a black mark for the auditors there. It is absolutely wild reading the accounts of a Championship / L1 club after mostly looking at PL clubs. Their amortisation charge for the year was £2.7m, which is like a couple months of Isak.

Literally nothing has happened yet (including this if it comes off) that disputes the "mutterings of the accountant types."

He definitely still has Ornstein level authority in terms of thread titles and he really shouldn't.

From here: https://inews.co.uk/sport/football/harvey-barnes-newcastle-fans-not-seen-best-owe-them-3209852?ito=copy-link_share_article-top

Incredible