PlymouthGeordie

We'll know after this weekend. Anything other than a win against WBA and defeats for Fulham vs Spurs & Liverpool and we are gone.

I've been confident we'll stay up but if Miggy's season is over and ASM is out for a while I think we're done. We simply aren't good enough to sustain injuries to those two and Wilson all at the same time. I'd put myself at an 8 now.

Argyle, Bradford, Cambridge all to score 2+ goals at 20/1.

He should have been sacked months ago, we all know that. I just cannot fathom how he stays in a job if we don't win on Saturday.

Burnley's next 5 fixtures are very tough, they are more vulnerable than us imo.

Out of interest where does your confidence that the takeover will pass come from? Obviously hope you're right!

Yeah I don't think it'll happen but thought it was worth sharing. He also mentions the Saudi's no longer want to buy us which is not in sync with what Caulkin, Douglas, Kennedy etc have been reporting.

I think we need to go 4-2-3-1. Dubravka Kraft, Lascelles, Clark, Lewis Willock, Hayden Fraser, Miggy, ASM Gayle It is time for Dubravka. He is our only genuine top 4 player and it is beyond neglect from Bruce that he's not picking him. Darlow has been shakey in recent weeks and at fault for a couple goals imo. I'm confident we have enough in the tank to stop up. I’d still give the current system a go with Fraser there and getting Willock to keep arriving into the box like he has done. He’d be most natural and if Willock has a Nolan-seque run of scoring arriving into the box then it might get us over the line. He had two of our best chances at Chelsea, obviously scored against Southampton. I’d try it anyway. I just think the current system was successful because both Everton and Southampton both play narrow and without naturally wingers. Chelsea have set the blueprint on how to expose the diamond in stretching the pitch wide and pushing full backs / wing backs high. I also think Gayle is a must when Wilson is out as nobody offers a goal threat like him. Even though his all round game is left wanting he does continually get chances when played up top due to his strikers instinct.

I think we need to go 4-2-3-1. Dubravka Kraft, Lascelles, Clark, Lewis Willock, Hayden Fraser, Miggy, ASM Gayle It is time for Dubravka. He is our only genuine top 4 player and it is beyond neglect from Bruce that he's not picking him. Darlow has been shakey in recent weeks and at fault for a couple goals imo. I'm confident we have enough in the tank to stop up.

Everyone was saying they'd be a point behind us come Sunday. Now it's they'll be 3 points behind us. Currently they're 6 points behind us and averaging 0.8 points per game so if they keep true to form it'll take 8 games for them to get to 25 points. Saturday is Sheff Utd's last hope of staying up so they aren't just going to roll over. Long way to go before we need to start panicking.

On that basis, I assume you think we have a good chance of catching Wolves given we are only 5 points behind them and still have to play them?

I think Burnley will get at least a point which will hopefully settle everyone down. And if Fulham do win then it just keeps Burnley involved.

What about 4 points adrift after 24 games? If that's how the league table was then it wouldn't take much to run the data but I'm not going to run scenarios that don't (currently) exist. The data as of today is pretty conclusive though (I'm a spreadsheet geek because of my job). No worries, wasn't meant as a serious request I do think there's a good chance we're only 4 points ahead come wednesday though, and if it's one team that strives to break every negative record in book then it's us. Absolutely. If it is going to happen to anyone it'll happen to us. Regarding the game on Wednesday, it needs to be remembered Burnley are only a point above us so won't be taking Fulham lightly. I can see Burnley winning it and that would then really ramp the pressure up on Fulham ahead of their game with Sheff Utd. Alternatively, a shock win for us tonight will deflate Fulham massively. Ultimately, as someone else has said, we just need to see where we are after the Wolves game and assess from there but as things stand today the chances of us going down (based on previous seasons) is slim to none.

What about 4 points adrift after 24 games? If that's how the league table was then it wouldn't take much to run the data but I'm not going to run scenarios that don't (currently) exist. The data as of today is pretty conclusive though (I'm a spreadsheet geek because of my job).

So I've done a bit of research of the last 10 years (I didn't go back further) and no team that has been 7 points adrift after 23 games has EVER stayed up. Wigan closed a 5 point gap in 2011/12. After 23 games they had 16 points, in their final 15 games they amassed a huge 27 points (1.8 PPG) to finish on 43 points and survive comfortably. No team with less than 19 points (Fulham currently have 18) after 23 games has survived in the last 10 years. Also in that time, the team in 17th after 23 games has never had as many points as we do (25). Only once in the last 10 years has the team in 16th had 25 points after 23 games. Last season, Villa had 22 points (4 more than Fulham) at this stage and survived with 35 points. The team with 19 points after 23 games in the 18/19 season went down with 34 points. In the 17/18 season 3rd bottom after 23 games had 20 points and were relegated with 33 points. Palace were the last team to survive with 19 points after 23 games in the 16/17 season and in that season 35 points kept you up. In the last 10 seasons, 3rd bottom has gone down with an average of 35.1 points. In the last 5 seasons that has reduced to 34.4 points but bear in mind each of those teams had more than the 18 points Fulham currently have after 23 games. I'm not saying don't be concerned, but history tells us 35 points guarantees safety based on the last 5 years and 3 wins and and a draw gets us to 35 and it's not unrealistic to expect that kind of return from 15 games. If we get that, Fulham need 6 wins from 15 games to finish on more points than us. We may well go down, but based on history it would take a minor miracle.

I don't understand this viewpoint. We are a point behind Burnley and Brighton, and 4 points off Palace and Southampton who both appear in freefall. How are the only two teams involved is and Fulham? For what it's worth, Fulham are clearly improving but so are we (in the last 4 games). However, if Fulham can close a 7 point gap to us why are people writing off the four teams mentioned above when we're 1 and 4 points behind them respectively? It wouldn't shock me if we got a result of sorts tonight. Such a long way to go and if Fulham beat Burnley in their next game I still won't panic because it keeps Burnley involved too. The preference is obviously a Burnley win but my point being with 15 games to go it is far too early to be worrying about remaining fixtures etc. We need 15 points from 15 games, if we lose the next 2 and beat Wolves we will still be on track. If we lose all 3 let's see what Fulham actually get from their next 3 games which according to most on here/twitter are all a guaranteed 3 points.

Yep. It should be: Manquillo, Schar, Clark, Ritchie It will be Kraft, Schar, Hayden, Manquillo I've gone from being positive about the game because of Southampton's injuries to now accepting defeat.

Nope. Even Vestergaard is likely to be back. They will be too good for us unfortunately.

Leicester are missing some big players too. I think Fulham will win tonight.

If we're still at least 6 points clear of Fulham after the next 3 games we'll stay up. If the gap is smaller than that I think we'll go down if Bruce remains in charge.

I personally think you're holding Keith and his "status" with the buyers in far too high a regard.

Huge opportunity to take 4-6 points from these next two games and make ourselves almost safe. Hoping we see the same line up and approach to Saturday's game with ASM in for Fraser if he's injured.