Eddie Howe

[Lush Vlad]

21 minutes ago, Memphis said:

 

 

 

A few thoughts on that without any actual research. 
 

Teams respect us a lot more (or have figured us out) sitting a lot deeper. Meaning we find it harder to break teams down. We don’t have the technical players to do so. 
 

Last season we seemed to go gung ho. Once we realised we were no good at defending, the press wasn’t working with the lack of rotation and the injuries. Not sure what that passing stat per defensive action said last season. But we did not have control or play well a lot of the time at home. It resembled basketball at times. 
 

Is it really a big enough sample size? 4 games?! Considering the games in question are the below:

 

Southampton love passing for passing’s sake and we had 10 men for an hour or so.
 

Spurs had a lot of the ball and we really struggled with possession that game. We were poor and kind of lucky to win. They didn’t create loads despite loads of shots.  
 

We then had Man City….. value for the point. Did they create loads? Trappy game. 

 

Brighton I have no idea what the numbers say and we did at times look a bit clueless. But fuck me, we really could and should have scored at least a couple. I don’t care what xG or any other stat says on this one. I’m using my eyes  

[Lush Vlad]

3 minutes ago, Holmesy said:

Chelsea  could have put the game out of sight in the first half with the chances we allowed them due to our ridiculously high line and inability to keep possession though.

I don’t think anyone doubts our ability to create chances, it’s the fact we gift the opposition so many and allow them to run through us at will that’s so troubling.  
 

I do. I actually think we don’t create enough or trouble the opposition keeper anywhere near enough. Especially with some of the attacking players we have. The build up from the back and how we try to open teams up is often lacking IMO. 

 

On the flip side of that. How many games this season have we relied on Pope to make save after save, heroic defending or really bad finishing to get us a result? Bournemouth in the first half, maybe? Do we give up loads of chances, it doesn’t feel like we do. Individual mistakes have been a worrying trend, mind. 
 

It’s almost like we are in this transition to a new style/playing a different way because of who is available and it’s not really working overall. 

[Pata]

30 minutes ago, Memphis said:

What's very strange to me has been the dropoff in home performances. Though we have 7 points from 12, we have not been able to consistently play well or control opponents the way we did in the last two seasons. One interesting stat I've dug up - we are last in the league by a decent margin in home OPPDA (opponent passes per defensive action), meaning that we do not maintain any control of the ball before opponent pressing or tackling disrupts our play. That number has dropped by 35 percent in the last two seasons. It's a sign of the lack of control we show these days - and the poor state of our passing in general.

 

The same is true of our non-penalty xG numbers - 19th at home (4.54 NPxG over 4 matches). We're sort of OKish away and quite rotten at home. 

 

League NPxG at Home:

 

2022-23: 1st 

2023-24: 2nd

2024-25: 19th (through 9 league matches)

 

League NPxG differential at home:

 

2022-23: 1st

2023-24: 2nd (by .05 to Liverpool)

2024-25: 15th

 

So while we can talk about strikers not performing, missing chances, etc - the reality is that we're not creating anything at home. Not like we used to. I don't know specifically what to point to but the dropoff in these figures should be setting alarm bells off in Howe's office. 

 

 

 

 

 

This is way too small of a sample size for any conclusions especially considering the circumstances. 10 players for the majority of one match and then matches against possession ultras Spurs and Man City. Trend is also upwards as we were much better than Brighton in everything but finishing chances. 60% possession (64% in the first half), outshot them two to one and xG was clearly to us.

[timeEd32]

8 minutes ago, Pata said:

 

This is way too small of a sample size for any conclusions especially considering the circumstances. 10 players for the majority of one match and then matches against possession ultras Spurs and Man City. Trend is also upwards as we were much better than Brighton in everything but finishing chances. 60% possession (64% in the first half), outshot them two to one and xG was clearly to us.

 

I was going to respond with the same. Some home stats were jumping out to me as concerning, but they need this context applied. And 2 of our next 3 home games are Arsenal and Liverpool, so realistically we're not going to know for awhile if there are larger problems.

 

Based on the fixtures, if our home form hasn't seriously dropped off, we should have a barnstorming second half of the season at SJP. 

[Memphis]

Everyone pointing out that we're dealing with a small and unique sample size is correct - that data isn't intended to be definitive by any stretch. It is intended to note a potential problem. Unfortunately a football season itself is a small sample size of a player or manager career, but we have to use the data we have. So by the time you find that the data is definitive, it's much too late to really do anything with it that season. It's flawed but the sizable changes potentially point to a problematic trend. At the very least, it's worth keeping an eye on. 

[Lush Vlad]

But 2 seasons worth of stats for 19 home games, against similar level teams across both seasons. Makes sense to me. You can draw some conclusions and perhaps follow a trend across certain metrics up to a point? 
 

4 games, two of which were against decent sides (City more than decent), plus a game where we had 10 men for an hour and then the Brighton game where we actually looked good for the most part. Is surely nonsensical? What can you take from that? 
 

We are certainly not scoring enough home or away so far. That is a concern, for me. 

[BrianSwan]

Need to go back to being a nightmare to play against, pressing monsters.

 

Look at Villa, their success is built upon Watkins, Rodgers, McGuin et al pressing like mad men, and going direct, vertical football.

[TheBrownBottle]

9 hours ago, BrianSwan said:

Need to go back to being a nightmare to play against, pressing monsters.

 

Look at Villa, their success is built upon Watkins, Rodgers, McGuin et al pressing like mad men, and going direct, vertical football.

It absolutely broke our squad last year.  We’ve got too many injury-prone players to actually play like that for an extended period.

 

We needed to evolve into a different playing style - spunking lots of money usually allows you to do that.  As yet, we haven’t evolved.  I’m fully prepared to give Howe time to evolve the style - though to date there’s been little indication that he will. 

[mouldy_uk]

That is the dilemma 

 

Press lots = break the squad 

Don’t press = zero plan B and not enough creative players 

[STM]

16 minutes ago, TheBrownBottle said:

It absolutely broke our squad last year.  We’ve got too many injury-prone players to actually play like that for an extended period.

 

We needed to evolve into a different playing style - spunking lots of money usually allows you to do that.  As yet, we haven’t evolved.  I’m fully prepared to give Howe time to evolve the style - though to date there’s been little indication that he will. 

 

Eddie Howe is a manager who's philosophy is pressing, high energy football (I agree we aren't seeing much of it at the moment). 

 

Asking him to change (evolve) won't work and isn't necessary. Klopp won loads playing a similar way. Also you don't hire a manager and then ask them to change. Imagine asking Pep to play more direct?

 

Howe could change his formation or his line up and keep the same philosophy.

 

And while I agree that this style is taxing on the players, the answer isn't to change the manager, it's to change the players.

 

If you won't a manager more possession based, that's totally understandable, just don't ask Howe to do it. A complete waste of time IMO.

[TheBrownBottle]

3 minutes ago, STM said:

 

Eddie Howe is a manager who's philosophy is pressing, high energy football (I agree we aren't seeing much of it at the moment). 

 

Asking him to change (evolve) won't work and isn't necessary. Klopp won loads playing a similar way. Also you don't hire a manager and then ask them to change. Imagine asking Pep to play more direct?

 

Howe could change his formation or his line up and keep the same philosophy.

 

And while I agree that this style is taxing on the players, the answer isn't to change the manager, it's to change the players.

 

If you won't a manager more possession based, that's totally understandable, just don't ask Howe to do it. A complete waste of time IMO.

I suspect you’re probably right, but I do also think that Howe is a better ‘thinker’ of the game than he’s often given credit for.

 

What’s odd to me is that he hasn’t built a ‘pressing’ squad.  Other than Gordon, I don’t think any of his big money signings are ‘pressing monsters’.  Isak, Bruno, Tonali, Barnes, etc.  There’s a disparity between signings and philosophy. 

[STM]

3 minutes ago, TheBrownBottle said:

I suspect you’re probably right, but I do also think that Howe is a better ‘thinker’ of the game than he’s often given credit for.

 

What’s odd to me is that he hasn’t built a ‘pressing’ squad.  Other than Gordon, I don’t think any of his big money signings are ‘pressing monsters’.  Isak, Bruno, Tonali, Barnes, etc.  There’s a disparity between signings and philosophy. 

I agree.

 

I think Tonali perhaps has that pressing in him. I'd say Barnes and even Hall aren't that type.

 

Isak is the opposite of what we need and it's a problem because he's also world class. If I was a ruthless cunt, I'd sell him and sign someone like Delap. He won't score more goals but the team might function better. We'd also have way more PSR wriggle room.

 

Before anyone jumps on me, I love Isak and don't want to lose him but it's an issue.

[TheBrownBottle]

2 minutes ago, STM said:

I agree.

 

I think Tonali perhaps has that pressing in him. I'd say Barnes and even Hall aren't that type.

 

Isak is the opposite of what we need and it's a problem because he's also world class. If I was a ruthless cunt, I'd sell him and sign someone like Delap. He won't score more goals but the team might function better. We'd also have way more PSR wriggle room.

 

Before anyone jumps on me, I love Isak and don't want to lose him but it's an issue.

Yeah, you’re right.  Isak is the most talented player I’ve ever seen in B&W play centre forward (I never saw the man in my profile picture play no.9 ‎).  But he isn’t built for our manager’s preferred style of play.

 

It sticks in the craw the idea of the lad being moved on, mind.  He’s the only player I’ve seen who could be a ‘generational talent’.  I’d rather Howe evolved and we play a style suited to him - but i suspect it is either one or the other …

[Abacus]

It could be that we adopted a pressing style at first with the players we had, who might not all have been very good, but could at least run around. As we've added players like Bruno or Tonali, we've tried to shift the playing style, but landed somewhere in the middle so far, and I'm discounting much of last season because of injuries and Tonali's ban.

 

Or, it could be that we just bought good players opportunistically, failed to sign a few we wanted which has left us unbalanced (Botman's injury has been huge) and just haven't found a way to make it all work yet, notwithstanding we're mid table anyway.

 

Or it could be that after a less than perfect pre-season, we've played a lot better in the last few games, the results haven't yet followed and there is an overreaction to a defeat away to Chelsea that almost everyone expected us to lose or be battered in anyway.

[STM]

2 minutes ago, TheBrownBottle said:

Yeah, you’re right.  Isak is the most talented player I’ve ever seen in B&W play centre forward (I never saw the man in my profile picture play no.9 ‎).  But he isn’t built for our manager’s preferred style of play.

 

It sticks in the craw the idea of the lad being moved on, mind.  He’s the only player I’ve seen who could be a ‘generational talent’.  I’d rather Howe evolved and we play a style suited to him - but i suspect it is either one or the other …

 

I think there are some workarounds but they involve Isak not leading the line. If we had Wilson available, Isak could slot into the number 10, for the purpose of Wilson pressing the ball. Wouldn't be a popular solution though.

 

We could also try and train Isak to press with more intensity. Right now it feels like he might as well not bother pressing because of how ineffective it is.

[r0cafella]

Sell isak and replacing him with Delap is peak NO. 

[JEToon]

4 minutes ago, r0cafella said:

Sell isak and replacing him with Delap is peak NO. 

 

If that’s the solution to making an Eddie Howe style of play work, Howe is a problem. 

[TheBrownBottle]

3 minutes ago, r0cafella said:

Sell isak and replacing him with Delap is peak NO. 

😀

 

It is a bit - but I think STM is right; Isak is unsuited to a high press style, and is too fragile for it

 

There may only be two options available, and both would have been unthinkable a short while ago

 

Gun to my head, I’m probably taking new manager and Isak staying.  But it very much would be gun to my head.

[r0cafella]

 

 

 

2 minutes ago, TheBrownBottle said:

😀

 

It is a bit - but I think STM is right; Isak is unsuited to a high press style, and is too fragile for it

 

There may only be two options available, and both would have been unthinkable a short while ago

 

Gun to my head, I’m probably taking new manager and Isak staying.  But it very much would be gun to my head.

A high press shouldnt be the sole focus of play, competent and capable teams set pressing traps and funnel play to certain areas of the pitch and when it back in those areas. The fact we default to doesn't run enough is pretty dire. 

 

If you have a world class player which we know we do the manager should be looking to get the most out of him by employing tactics which suits him not binning him off for some inferior because he runs a bit. 

[SUPERTOON]

5 minutes ago, TheBrownBottle said:

😀

 

It is a bit - but I think STM is right; Isak is unsuited to a high press style, and is too fragile for it

 

There may only be two options available, and both would have been unthinkable a short while ago

 

Gun to my head, I’m probably taking new manager and Isak staying.  But it very much would be gun to my head.

I don’t think it would be a particularly difficult choice. If a manager can’t get the best out of a world class player it’s says more about them than the player imo.

[KaKa]

54 minutes ago, TheBrownBottle said:

It absolutely broke our squad last year.  We’ve got too many injury-prone players to actually play like that for an extended period.

 

We needed to evolve into a different playing style - spunking lots of money usually allows you to do that.  As yet, we haven’t evolved.  I’m fully prepared to give Howe time to evolve the style - though to date there’s been little indication that he will. 

 

I would have hoped this could be helped by leaning on someone like Bunce's expertise with him now coming in.

 

And figuring out a different type of training approach or schedule in order to limit the amount of injuries while playing our original style.

 

I think trying to change the style completely with the players we have isn't going to work out well, as we've seen so far, and having to then bring in a whole new set of players just to achieve a new style seems a bit drastic, and will be difficult to do in our financial position.

 

Really wish they'd figure this thing out because that style we were playing before was devastating opponents and causing them so many problems.

[Shearergol]

1 hour ago, TheBrownBottle said:

It absolutely broke our squad last year.  We’ve got too many injury-prone players to actually play like that for an extended period.

 

We needed to evolve into a different playing style - spunking lots of money usually allows you to do that.  As yet, we haven’t evolved.  I’m fully prepared to give Howe time to evolve the style - though to date there’s been little indication that he will. 

 

I thought we just got loads of freak injuries? It was only after those that the niggles started appearing because players had to play too much? Barnes, Targett, Anderson, Burn off the top of my head all got what you would consider non-standard injuries.

[TRon]

29 minutes ago, TheBrownBottle said:

I suspect you’re probably right, but I do also think that Howe is a better ‘thinker’ of the game than he’s often given credit for.

 

What’s odd to me is that he hasn’t built a ‘pressing’ squad.  Other than Gordon, I don’t think any of his big money signings are ‘pressing monsters’.  Isak, Bruno, Tonali, Barnes, etc.  There’s a disparity between signings and philosophy. 

 

Tbh, my impression is that during Staveley's time here, Howe pretty much got what he wanted in players, seems that if it was a player we really liked - examples being Gordon and Barnes - we would chase them over prolonged periods of time, even if there was no pressing need in that position. It's one of the reasons the squad is imbalanced. So if we aren't signing players suited to Howe's preferred style, then either he doesn't know what he needs, or there's a disconnect somewhere between the CEO and him.

[Abacus]

1 minute ago, SUPERTOON said:

I don’t think it would be a particularly difficult choice. If a manager can’t get the best out of a world class player it’s says more about them than the player imo.

Personally, I don't think that's the choice. Isak has had chances and fluffed them this season due to being rusty and / or injured. That's not Howe's fault.

 

Previous to that, he's been banging them in when fit, so he is normally deadly in a Howe team. Find this debate a bit strange, but hey. That's the beauty of a forum.

[nufc4eva]

We can't high press that effectively with current back 4 either, Schar isn't looking great, Dan burn has the pace of a snail so if they push up to squeeze midfield they can't get back, look at how Jackson just turned them. I think having 2 midfielders alternating sitting deeper and a front 4 (1 up front, 3 behind) and getting them to press would be more effective. Pressing slightly deeper but less gaps for them to break through.

 

Normally with Howe we have a bad run then all of a sudden become unbeatable for a run of games so hoping that happens but hard to see it right now. That right wing needs sorted as well to hurt teams as we look really shit going forward there. 

 

Another thing would be sitting deeper and using Barnes, Isak, Joelinton runs to counter diagnolly as well know they have that in them but needs a Schar or Bruno pass to unlock