Eddie Howe

[Holmesy]

3 minutes ago, The Prophet said:

 

What's plan A?

Exactly!

[bobbydazzla]

I’ve made this point before about those stats taking a one size fits all approach, which must have an impact on where the likes of us and Villa show up in them tables.

 

In our case, we must be 5th best because teams don’t need to create many chances, just keep plugging away knowing we’ll fuck up defensively at some point, usually after we’ve blown our beans in the first half hour and only converted one of a number of chances we’ve created.

 

If we go one up in first half, teams don’t need to worry themselves about it.  
 

That’s not all on the keeper, it’s a lack of defensive cover in midfield and defensive unit (including the keeper) that are prone to making individual errors most games. And a weak as piss mentality overall. 
 

And Villa have deliberately been employing a tactic of getting players who have great long range shooting ability into positions where they can have long range shots. Hence why their numbers don’t stack up. 
 

 

 

Edited March 25 by bobbydazzla

[The Prophet]

2 minutes ago, Holmesy said:

Exactly!

 

[Holmesy]

Just now, The Prophet said:

 

Howe has stated, "if you have too many Plan Bs, it means your Plan A is flawed," arguing for consistency over constant change.

So what we're seeing now is plan A. And when that doesn't work, it's more of plan A. But honestly, I haven't got the foggiest what we're trying to do at the moment. You?

[dcmk]

5 minutes ago, Holmesy said:

Howe has stated, "if you have too many Plan Bs, it means your Plan A is flawed," arguing for consistency over constant change.

So what we're seeing now is plan A. And when that doesn't work, it's more of plan A. But honestly, I haven't got the foggiest what we're trying to do at the moment. You?

Plan A, has got us a cup, two finals and two Champions League campaigns.  So it  works, this season there has been mitigating circumstances.

[The Prophet]

2 minutes ago, Holmesy said:

Howe has stated, "if you have too many Plan Bs, it means your Plan A is flawed," arguing for consistency over constant change.

So what we're seeing now is plan A. And when that doesn't work, it's more of plan A. But honestly, I haven't got the foggiest what we're trying to do at the moment. You?

 

I agree at the moment, the plan is a lot clearer away from home than it is at home. Given our home games are regularly riddled with individual errors though, it's far more likely a failure in execution rather than a lack of planning.

[The Prophet]

2 minutes ago, dcmk said:

Plan A, has got us a cup, two finals and two Champions League campaigns.  So it  works, this season there has been mitigating circumstances.

 

I do think we're trying to evolve this season. It's just taking longer than we'd want due to the volume of fixtures.

[The Prophet]

3 minutes ago, Holmesy said:

True (about what it has helped us achieve). But the same plan A has also been responsible for two lacklustre league performances when in Europe, a huge number of injuries, fatigued players and a boat load of goals being shipped. Feels like it needs tweaking a bit to be sustainable.

 

We did finish 7th in the first "lackluster" campaign mind, despite having circa 14 fit players at one point.

[Kid Icarus]

28 minutes ago, bobbydazzla said:

I’ve made this point before about those stats taking a one size fits all approach, which must have an impact on where the likes of us and Villa show up in them tables.

 

In our case, we must be 5th best because teams don’t need to create many chances, just keep plugging away knowing we’ll fuck up defensively at some point, usually after we’ve blown our beans in the first half hour and only converted one of a number of chances we’ve created.

 

If we go one up in first half, teams don’t need to worry themselves about it.  
 

That’s not all on the keeper, it’s a lack of defensive cover in midfield and defensive unit (including the keeper) that are prone to making individual errors most games.
 

And Villa have deliberately been employing a tactic of getting players who have great long range shooting ability into positions where they can have long range shots. Hence why their numbers don’t stack up. 
 

 

 

 

 

The thing with xga though is that it still only combines the amount/quality of shots, so while the context of how the opposition get to have those shots in the first place isn't known, it shouldn't really matter because it's still resulting in few shots, or poor quality shots. If our midfield and defence were easy to cut through at will you would expect that to happen more often and  result in higher xga surely.

 

Villa are also 5th worst for the amount/quality of chances the opposition has against them, yet somehow 6th best in the league for actual goals against. There's no reason for that to be a tactic of their's I don't think.

 

The long shot thing is sort of plausible, but they're also quite often only having 1 or 2 shots and score from one of them, so it seems like a mental way to approach that tactic like. 

 

Villa do my head tbh and have done for ages. When you watch them it matches up with those stats imo, they're so often like a punching above its weight team (like us in 11/12) but they've been like this for the best part of 3 fucking years.

 

 

Edited March 25 by Kid Icarus

[bobbydazzla]

15 minutes ago, Kid Icarus said:

 

The thing with xga though is that it still only combines the amount/quality of shots, so while the context of how the opposition get to have those shots in the first place isn't known, it shouldn't really matter because it's still resulting in few shots, or poor quality shots. If our midfield and defence were easy to cut through at will you would expect that to happen more often and  result in higher xga surely.

 

Villa are also 5th worst for the amount/quality of chances the opposition has against them, yet somehow 6th best in the league for actual goals against. There's no reason for that to be a tactic of their's I don't think.

 

The long shot thing is sort of plausible, but they're also quite often only having 1 or 2 shots and score from one of them, so it seems like a mental way to approach that tactic like. 

 

Villa do my head tbh and have done for ages. When you watch them it matches up with those stats imo, they're so often like a punching above its weight team (like us in 11/12) but they've been like this for the best part of 3 fucking years.

 

 

 

From watching games I’d say our midfield and defence were very easy to cut through, particularly from the halfway line to the edge of our box. Teams exploit that space game after game. Thats why I was sure 5th place must have meant the table was the wrong way round.  
 

The Villa thing was a nerdy article I read by a proper analyst who talked about how Villa weren't actually outperforming their stats, they just play a different tactical game compared to how the stat boffins presume a game is played when they create the stat measurement criteria. It had diagrams of their goal scoring positions etc.  

 

 

Edited March 25 by bobbydazzla

[The Prophet]

The spacing between the defence and midfield is fine for the most part. The problem seems to be if we're chasing the game at home, we tend to lose a lot of control and the game becomes way more stretched than in needs to be. Sloppy defensive errors and poor decision making in the final third then ensure we lose more than we win.

[nufc4eva]

52 minutes ago, The Prophet said:

 

What's plan A?

Run ourselves into ground in first 20 mins then collapse and look nervous and inept for rest of the game. I think Plan B is after 45 mins look like a fucking shambles and absolutely no comparison to first half efforts

[bobbydazzla]

4 minutes ago, The Prophet said:

The spacing between the defence and midfield is fine for the most part. The problem seems to be if we're chasing the game at home, we tend to lose a lot of control and the game becomes way more stretched than in needs to be. Sloppy defensive errors and poor decision making in the final third then ensure we lose more than we win.

Indeedly doodly.

 

You don’t need to throw many punches if the bloke you’re fighting comes flying at you windmilling as soon as the bell rings, he rarely lands his blows, he often leaves his guard down and he has a glass jaw. And also when he goes to the deck he rarely makes it back up. 

 

Couple of rudimentary jabs and an upper cut will floor him and the fight is won. 

 

 

Edited March 25 by bobbydazzla

[The Prophet]

1 minute ago, nufc4eva said:

Run ourselves into ground in first 20 mins then collapse and look nervous and inept for rest of the game. I think Plan B is after 45 mins look like a fucking shambles and absolutely no comparison to first half efforts

 

It's few and far between I've seen us run ourselves into the ground this season. It's happened a couple of times, but in most games the press is far less ferocious.

[Wallsendmag]

4 minutes ago, The Prophet said:

The spacing between the defence and midfield is fine for the most part. The problem seems to be if we're chasing the game at home, we tend to lose a lot of control and the game becomes way more stretched than in needs to be. Sloppy defensive errors and poor decision making in the final third then ensure we lose more than we win.

 

We weren't chasing the game at home on Sunday though and the same thing happened.

[Kid Icarus]

4 minutes ago, bobbydazzla said:

From watching games I’d say our midfield and defence were very easy to cut through, particularly from the halfway line to the edge of our box. Teams exploit that space game after game. Thats why I was sure 5th place must have meant the table was the wrong way round.  
 

The Villa thing was a nerdy article I read by a proper analyst who talked about how Villa weren't actually outperforming their stats, they were just playing a different tactical game compared to how the stat boffins presume a game is played when they create the stat measurement criteria.  

 

 

 

It does happen a lot, but if my memory's right I can't think of loads of times per match where it ends up with huge chances for the opposition. 

 

Villa could just be conceding loads of low quality shots and the xga goes up in that way like, but either way I can't stand how they play.

[nufc4eva]

1 hour ago, Kid Icarus said:

Nah, 5th best, see below. 

 

It doesn't tell the whole story (and tbh this is all really broad strokes anyway) though. Not only are we conceding more than the xg the opposition has against us (45 goals conceded to 39 xga) we're also not meeting our own xg (44 goals to nearly 48xg) 

 

The disparity with the xga is much bigger though,  We're 5th best for xga, 14th actual goals against, but for xg we're 8th best, also 8th for actual goals scored.

 

Basically priority 1 is a 'keeper, but I think we all knew that.

 

I think a keeper is only part of the problem , positioning and recovery when defending a big part. We often don't concede goals because of the keeper of looked over season, it's how we setup, defend and stupid mistakes as well as not retaining possession well enough/slowing it down in final 3rd.

 

We are a kick and rush then lose the ball team, we get dragged out of position and then teams find the space behind. We fair better against some of the top teams as that press knocks them off their game and breaks up their possession game, the lower teams are happy to not have the ball and setup to deal with that. We would do well to manage how we play better against the lower teams, more patient and guarded until later in the game and then push on.

[The Prophet]

2 minutes ago, bobbydazzla said:

Indeedly doodly.

 

You don’t need to throw many punches if the bloke you’re fighting rarely lands his, often leaves his guard down and has a glass jaw. And also when he goes to the canvas he rarely makes it back up. 

 

Couple of rudimentary jabs and an upper cut will floor him and the fight is won. 

 

Aye. We've just been a really poor team in both boxes for the most part.

 

Poor goalkeeping and lack of concentration at one end, indecision and sloppy finishing at t'other, compounded by fatigue and a crippling lack of confidence.

[The Prophet]

5 minutes ago, Wallsendmag said:

 

We weren't chasing the game at home on Sunday though and the same thing happened.

 

I didn't watch it, but by all accounts this happened as soon as Sunderland equalised.

[nufc4eva]

4 minutes ago, The Prophet said:

 

It's few and far between I've seen us run ourselves into the ground this season. It's happened a couple of times, but in most games the press is far less ferocious.

Maybe we don't but just feels that way or maybe it's the fact we lose our shape completely, watching on Sunday it was shocking, shape completely gone and random closing down and not getting close. The team doesn't really move as one anymore and make it a fucking nightmare for opponents and what usually happens is we are out of sync not tracking runners and concede. Slow it down, focus on shape, pick them off and have more chance

[Dr.Spaceman]

It's that fucking gap in the middle between the midfield and the defence. According to the twat at work Man Utd sorted theirs out by dropping Casemiro and Mainoo a little bit deeper, allowing Bruno F more freedom going forward. Our problem is that we don't have anyone like Bruno F to play in that role so we'd end up with limited numbers in attack and it would be like isolated Joselu / Rondon all over again.

[Wallsendmag]

10 minutes ago, The Prophet said:

 

I didn't watch it, but by all accounts this happened as soon as Sunderland equalised.

 

It started a bit before half time. You could see it coming before HT. Said to my mate in the pub 5 mins before HT that we needed the whistle. They took control at the start of the 2nd half.

[The Prophet]

3 minutes ago, Wallsendmag said:

 

It started a bit before half time. You could see it coming before HT. Said to my mate in the pub 5 mins before HT that we needed the whistle. They took control at the start of the 2nd half.

 

Fair, I'm unable to comment so I'll take your word for it.

[Wallsendmag]

1 minute ago, The Prophet said:

 

Fair, I'm unable to comment so I'll take your word for it.

 

Aye were were just starting to lose a bit of control before HT. I was hoping we'd get in 1-0 up and just stabilise things a bit but unfortunately the 2nd half was a complete shambles straight from our Kick off.

[TheBrownBottle]

42 minutes ago, Wallsendmag said:

 

We weren't chasing the game at home on Sunday though and the same thing happened.

It’s a pattern at home - on this occasion it happened to be the Mackems, but Howe struggles to set up a team to be midtable opposition.  And it’s nowt to do with fixture pile-ups - it was the same last year.  In terms of home matches last season vs teams in 8th - 14th, the results were W2 L5.  This season (based on current standings) it’s W2 L3.  We’ve still got to play Brighton and Bournemouth at home - I wouldn’t bank on getting six points from those.  These are all clubs we’ve massively outspent, yet we struggle to breakdown every single time.  The Mackem game is completely in line with a pattern.