Newcastle United vs. Everton 08/02/2022 @ 7.45pm (BT)

[Superior Acuña]

8 hours ago, Gazzaschicken said:

Yeah the tally has been lower past few seasons but I think the reason everyone says 40 is because only 1 team has been relegated with 40+ points in the history of the Premier league so if you hit 40 regardless you are safe. Correct me if I'm wrong was it palace with 42 way back when? 

 

Edit, just googled sheff utd went down on 42 and then Palace on 45 but that was 94 and 95 seasons then west ham went down on 42 in 03 seasons. Apologies I was just a sprog in 94 and had the luxury of growing up with the toon at the top of the table

 

 

 

 

There were more games then though (in 94 and 95), it changed to 20 teams in 1996. Think it's only one been down on 40 with current state of league.

[masterofawe8]

My thoughts are debut Bruno, Targett, and Burn. Everton already seems to be revitalized by Frank Lampard's management, demolishing Brentford in the FA Cup. Let's start the strongest side possible to get rolling and hopefully get those 3 points!

[Teasy]

40 minutes ago, Phoenix711 said:

 

You're looking at it wrong. You've taken a team who were already safe and put them at the bottom of the safe pile. Relegation is irrelevant to teams who are safe. You need to take a team in relegation and see what they need to be safe.

 

So look at a team which is 18th, 19th or 20th and then what would they need to be safe? The answer isn't 1 point more than 18th (unless 17th had the same points as 18th), it's 1 point more than 17th or 17th's points with a better goal difference.

 

Just look at us now, we are 19th and in relegation. We need to do whatever it takes to get to 17th which means we need to look at what 17th has got and add 1 point to be mathematically guaranteed (ignoring goal difference to keep it simple). 18th is technically irrelevant as you can see last year where 18th was 11 points behind 17th.

 

One point more than 17th puts us in 16th though, would be nice but its not absolutely needed to survive.

 

 

Edited February 7, 2022 by Teasy

[Phoenix711]

52 minutes ago, Teasy said:

 

One point more than 17th puts us in 16th though, would be nice but its not absolutely needed to survive.

 

 

 

 

It doesn't though.

 

Take this example. If you are in a race and you overtook second, what place are you now?

 

Did you think first?

 

Then what place would you be if you overtook first?

 

You can't be first for both overtaking second AND first. 

 

The answer is, when you overtook second, you became second and when you overtook first you became first. Just think about it for a second. If it's easier, remember to "overtake" second, you are currently third, after overtaking you became second.

 

So back to our 17th example, when you overtake 17th by being one point ahead, you don't become 16th. You become 17th and the one you overtook becomes 18th.

 

Here's a graphical example if it helps. The current EPL table.

 

16th Everton 19

17th Norwich - 16

18th Watford - 15

19th Newcastle - 15

20th Burnley - 13

 

If Newcastle had one point more than 17th, in this case Norwich, we would have 17 points. If we redid the table it would be:

 

16th Everton 19

17th Newcastle - 17

18th Norwich - 16

19th Watford - 15

20th Burnley - 13

 

Do you see how we push down the team to take 17th?

 

 

Edited February 7, 2022 by Phoenix711

[Happinesstan]

You're all ignoring where the extra points would come from.

Take last season, Fulham needed 11 more points to finish above Burnley, but they only managed 1 point from their games versus Burnley. If they had managed 6 points from those 2 games then Burnley would be on 4 points less, leaving Fulham needing only 7 more points.

[Happinesstan]

2 hours ago, Phoenix711 said:

 

You're looking at it wrong. You've taken a team who were already safe and put them at the bottom of the safe pile. Relegation is irrelevant to teams who are safe. You need to take a team in relegation and see what they need to be safe.

 

So look at a team which is 18th, 19th or 20th and then what would they need to be safe? The answer isn't 1 point more than 18th (unless 17th had the same points as 18th), it's 1 point more than 17th or 17th's points with a better goal difference.

 

Just look at us now, we are 19th and in relegation. We need to do whatever it takes to get to 17th which means we need to look at what 17th has got and add 1 point to be mathematically guaranteed (ignoring goal difference to keep it simple). 18th is technically irrelevant as you can see last year where 18th was 11 points behind 17th.

How many points do you need to win a Champions league group? 1 point more than third bottom.

 

 

Edited February 7, 2022 by Happinesstan

[Phoenix711]

9 minutes ago, Happinesstan said:

How many points do you need to win a Champions league group? 1 point more than third bottom.

 

 

 

 

This thread is distracting from the game but I'll just say this just one last time. Take your example, I guess you meant to say qualifying from a group (finish top 2) as oppose to win it.

 

Then your answer can be right or wrong, it all depends on perspective. Take the following group:

 

Group B

1. Liverpool - 18pts

2. Atletico - 7pts

3. Porto - 5pts

4. Milan - 4pts

 

1pt more than third = 6pts. So ANY team which got 6pts would qualify from this group?

 

Obviously not. Change Liverpool or Atletico from 18 to 6 and they still qualify, but change to Porto or Milan and they still fail to qualify. If you said get 1pt more than the team who finished second, then you would guarantee qualification. So in this example, if any team changed their points to 8 (7pts + 1), they would finish second if they are Atletico, Porto or Milan or first if they were Liverpool.

 

As you can see, to GUARANTEE qualification in ALL scenarios you need to finish 1 point above second. In certain scenarios, 1pt above third works but not all. The same for relegation, to guarantee survival for ANY team, you need 1pt above 17th. If you are already safe then you could say 1 point above 18th but that's kind of irrelevant because safety is primarily viewed from the teams in the relegation zone.

 

Anyways, looking forward to the Everton game and hopefully we can get a much needed win.

 

 

[Happinesstan]

Just now, Phoenix711 said:

I guess you meant to say qualifying from a group (finish top 2) as oppose to win it.

Guess again. Finishing second in our current group of four results in relegation.

[Phoenix711]

25 minutes ago, Happinesstan said:

How many points do you need to win a Champions league group? 1 point more than third bottom.

 

 

 

 

2 minutes ago, Happinesstan said:

Guess again. Finishing second in our current group of four results in relegation.

 

Sorry your post is just a bit confusing. You talk about Champions League Group and then about the bottom 4. 

 

The bottom line is we need to get more points than the team in 17th, more points than 18th just puts us 18th i.e. we are currently chasing Norwich. I know what people are trying to day i.e. we need more points than three teams (which I agree), but the three teams can't include us which is why some people keep saying one point more than 18th. It's one point more than the three lowest teams that doesn't include us which so happens to be the team in 17th - if we escape the relegation zone then things will change.

 

From a macroscopic perspective and if you read articles on relegation, the target for survival was what the team in 17th got.

[Happinesstan]

3 minutes ago, Phoenix711 said:

 

 

Sorry your post is just a bit confusing. You talk about Champions League Group and then about the bottom 4. 

 

The bottom line is we need to get more points than the team in 17th, more points than 18th just puts us 18th i.e. we are currently chasing Norwich. I know what people are trying to day i.e. we need more points than three teams (which I agree), but the three teams can't include us which is why some people keep saying one point more than 18th. It's one point more than the three lowest teams that doesn't include us which so happens to be the team in 17th - if we escape the relegation zone then things will change.

 

From a macroscopic perspective and if you read articles on relegation, the target for survival was what the team in 17th got.

I didn't mention bottom 4, but even if I did, it shouldn't be confusing, in a group of four the top four are the same as the bottom 4. In order to finish top you have to outperform the bottom 3.

 

 

 

Edited February 7, 2022 by Happinesstan

[Phoenix711]

 

6 minutes ago, Happinesstan said:

I didn't mention bottom 4, but even if I did, it shouldn't be confusing, in a group of four the top four are the same as the bottom 4. In order to finish top you have to outperform the bottom 3.

 

 

 

 

 

Agree, but the following does not mean that:

 

43 minutes ago, Happinesstan said:

How many points do you need to win a Champions league group? 1 point more than third bottom.

 

 

 

 

 

The answer which guarantee topping a group in ALL scenarios is 1 point more than fourth bottom i.e. 1 point more than top in a 4 team group.

 

Back to CL:

 

Group B

1. Liverpool - 18pts

2. Atletico - 7pts

3. Porto - 5pts

4. Milan - 4pts

 

Unless you were Liverpool, changing your points to 1 point more than third bottom (Atletico = 8 pts), would not result in first.

 

Again, 1 point more than third bottom only works if you are not in the bottom three (we are). One point more than fourth bottom always works in any scenario. Just think about it.

[Happinesstan]

1 minute ago, Phoenix711 said:

 

 

Agree, but the following does not mean that:

 

 

 

The answer which guarantee topping a group in ALL scenarios is 1 point more than fourth bottom i.e. 1 point more than top in a 4 team group.

 

Back to CL:

 

Group B

1. Liverpool - 18pts

2. Atletico - 7pts

3. Porto - 5pts

4. Milan - 4pts

 

Unless you were Liverpool, changing your points to 1 point more than third bottom (Atletico = 8 pts), would not result in first.

 

Again, 1 point more than third bottom only works if you are not in the bottom three (we are). One point more than fourth bottom always works in any scenario. Just think about it.

Are you pissed?

We are in a group of four, if we finish above the team that finishes 3rd bottom, we finish top. Where we are right now is an irrelevance.

[Phoenix711]

6 minutes ago, Happinesstan said:

Are you pissed?

We are in a group of four, if we finish above the team that finishes 3rd bottom, we finish top. Where we are right now is an irrelevance.

 

No mate, you just aren't thinking things through. Example table:

 

17th Norwich - 17

18th Watford - 15

19th Newcastle - 15

20th Burnley - 13

 

Team that is third bottom, is Watford, if we finish above Watford (third bottom) in the above table (16 points) it does not mean we finish above Norwich i.e. we get relegated. 

 

If the table was this:

 

17th Newcastle - 16

18th Watford - 15

19th Norwich - 15

20th Burnley - 13

 

If we finish one point above Watford (third bottom) now, we are safe but that was because we weren't in the bottom three. Your 1 point above third bottom depends on where we are. My one point above fourth bottom is position independent. I can't make it any clearer than that. I think we all agree we want 17th or higher then look forward to the summer. Just hoping now.

 

 

Edited February 7, 2022 by Phoenix711

[bobloblaw]

4 minutes ago, Happinesstan said:

Are you pissed?

We are in a group of four, if we finish above the team that finishes 3rd bottom, we finish top. Where we are right now is an irrelevance.

 

He's saying that in the current position, to gain safety you will need to overtake the team in 17th place, which is not the same as gaining 1 point more than the team  in 18th place, because that won't necessarily put you in 17th.  It will just rearrange the deck chairs of the teams in relegation.

[Happinesstan]

1 minute ago, Phoenix711 said:

 

No mate, you just aren't thinking things through. Example table:

 

17th Norwich - 17

18th Watford - 15

19th Newcastle - 15

20th Burnley - 13

 

Team that is third bottom, is Watford, if we finish above Watford (third bottom) in the above table (16 points) it does not mean we finish above Norwich i.e. we get relegated. 

 

If the table was this:

 

17th Newcastle - 16

18th Watford - 15

19th Norwich - 15

20th Burnley - 13

 

If we finish one point above Watford (third bottom) now, we are safe but that was because we weren't in the bottom three. Your 1 point above third bottom depends on where we are. My one point above fourth bottom is position independent. I can't make it any clearer than that. I think we all agree we want 17th or higher then look forward to the summer. Just hoping now.

 

 

 

Well if we don't finish above Norwich then we don't finish above 3rd bottom.

[Happinesstan]

2 minutes ago, bobloblaw said:

 

He's saying that in the current position, to gain safety you will need to overtake the team in 17th place, which is not the same as gaining 1 point more than the team  in 18th place, because that won't necessarily put you in 17th.  It will just rearrange the deck chairs of the teams in relegation.

That doesn't need explaining. But where we are now is irrelevant to where we need to be when the table is finalised. When the table is finalised if we have one point more than 18th we finish 17th. Ergo we don't need 40 points if 18th only have 28.

 

 

Edited February 7, 2022 by Happinesstan

[bobloblaw]

Just now, Happinesstan said:

That doesn't need explaining. But where we are now is irrelevant to where we need to be when the table is finalised. When the table is finalised if we have one point more than 18th we finish 17th. Ergo we don't need 40 points if 18th only have 28.

 

 

 

 

On the final match day if the following is true, then finishing 1pt above the team currently in 18th won't matter.

 

A 17th - 17pts

B 18th - 13pts

C 19th - 11pts

D 20th - 10pts

 

Teams ABD lose, team C wins.  BCD still get relegated, even though they passed the team in 18th by a point on the final day.  Being in the relegation zone, you need to win enough to drag another team into the bottom three to escape.

 

Of course, just win some games, starting with Everton, so nobody has to talk about this tiresome stuff.

 

 

 

[Happinesstan]

It's absolutely bonkers to think our form in the first half of the season dictates our final position.

If you look at our points in the first half of the season [10 from 18 with Everton still to be played] in comparison with our results, so far in the second half [5 from 3], I don't see how you can be worried if I'm honest. 

[Bimpy474]

Fuck is going with the Euclid Voderman lunatics ?

 

Who gives a shite what points 18th have, might have, did have 15 years ago.  Let's just win win and feckin win, and finish nowhere near the bottom. Make sure and leave nothing to chance.

 

 

Edited February 7, 2022 by Bimpy474

[Happinesstan]

1 minute ago, bobloblaw said:

 

On the final match day if the following is true, then finishing 1pt above the team currently in 18th won't matter.

 

A 17th - 17pts

B 18th - 13pts

C 19th - 11pts

D 20th - 10pts

 

Teams ABD lose, team C wins.  BCD still get relegated, even though they passed the team in 18th by a point on the final day.  Being in the relegation zone, you need to win enough to drag another team into the bottom three to escape.

 

Of course, just win some games, starting with Everton, so nobody has to talk about this tiresome stuff.

 

 

 

Yes, so the argument is only relevant to a situation far away in the future.

[Jaqen]

So what's a goblin? 

[Happinesstan]

4 minutes ago, Bimpy474 said:

Fuck is going with Euclid Voderman lunatic ?

 

Who gives a shite what points 18th have, might have, did have 15byears ago.  Let's just win win and feckin win, and finish nowhere near the bottom. Make sure and leave nothing to chance.

Exactly. Our next 5 games are arguably winnable. Certainly 10 points are attainable. Of course if we come out with nowt then things will be bleak, but our recent form is a better indicator than our early season form. That Leeds performance was nervous but solid. We've added what looks like a lot more composure to that set-up. What we did in the first half of the season means nowt.

[bobloblaw]

7 minutes ago, Happinesstan said:

Yes, so the argument is only relevant to a situation far away in the future.

 

Well not too distant future, but like I said, just win and make it all irrelevant. 

[Happinesstan]

11 minutes ago, bobloblaw said:

 

Well not too distant future, but like I said, just win and make it all irrelevant. 

TBF we are only a little past halfway, but yeah we need wins and draws in the next 17 games. Our recent form is enough to maintain an optimistic outlook. The past determines where you are, you determine where you will be.

 

 

Edited February 7, 2022 by Happinesstan

[bobloblaw]

2 minutes ago, Happinesstan said:

TBF we are only a little past halfway, but yeah we need wins and draws in the next 17 games. Our recent form is enough to maintain an optimistic outlook. The past determines where you are, you determine where you will be.

 

 

 

 

Write a book and peddle it on facebook.  You'll be worth more than the pet rock guy in a couple of weeks.  Just need need to superimpose it over a girl in leggings doing squats.