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Loss against Liverpool was to be expected, we can still manage CL but we need to turn our performances around. Fortunately we have a break in PL games, and I'm hoping botman and Isak will be back next pl game.

 

I reckon we can get 5th if we:

 

Lose to Arsenal away - the hard game

 

Get 2 wins and 2 losses out of Vila away, Everton at home, West ham away, and Brighton away - the games we have historically struggled with but are by no means unwinnable.

 

Get draws from Chelsea at home, and Manu at home - games we could very well win but I don't feel comfortable enough calling. 

 

Beat Leicester away, Palace at home, Ipswich at home, and Brentford at home - games we should really in theory win.

 

I think that's the most realistic course of events I can see and would land us on 64 points which I'm hoping would be enough for 5th but the issue is were so inconsistent.

 

 

Edited by t00nt00n313

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32 minutes ago, t00nt00n313 said:

Loss against Liverpool was to be expected, we can still manage CL but we need to turn our performances around. Fortunately we have a break in PL games, and I'm hoping botman and Isak will be back next pl game.

 

I reckon we can get 5th if we:

 

Lose to Arsenal away - the hard game

 

Get 2 wins and 2 losses out of Vila away, Everton at home, West ham away, and Brighton away - the games we have historically struggled with but are by no means unwinnable.

 

Get draws from Chelsea at home, and Manu at home - games we could very well win but I don't feel comfortable enough calling. 

 

Beat Leicester away, Palace at home, Ipswich at home, and Brentford at home - games we should really in theory win.

 

I think that's the most realistic course of events I can see and would land us on 64 points which I'm hoping would be enough for 5th but the issue is were so inconsistent.

 

 

 

We need to beat Chelsea and Man U at home. 

I think 5th will need 66-68 points. We need to find a mini-run. Chelsea and Forest already have the points on the board. 
 

 

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Nottingham Forest-P27 Points 48 GD 11, Man City (H), Ipswich (A), Man U (H),Villa (A), Everton (H), Spurs (A), Brentford (H), Crystal Palace (A), Leicester City (H), West Ham  (A), Chelsea (H)
Manchester City-P27 Points 47 GD 16, Forest (A), Brighton (H), Leicester (H), United (A), Palace (H), Everton (A), Villa (H), Wolves (H), Southampton (A), Bournemouth (H), Fulham (A)
Chelsea-P27 Points 46 GD 16-Leicester (H), Arsenal (A), Spurs (H), Brentford (A), Ipswich (H), Fulham (A), Everton (H), Liverpool (H), Newcastle (A),  Man U (H), Forest (A)
Newcastle United-P27 Points 44 GD 8, -West Ham (H), Brentford (H), Leicester (A), Man U (H), Palace (H), Villa (A), Ipswich (H), Brighton (A), Chelsea (H), Arsenal (A), Everton (H)
Bournemouth-P27 Points 43 GD 13,Spurs (A), Brentford (H), Ipswich (H), West Ham (A), Fulham (H), Palace (A), United (H), Arsenal (A), Villa (H), City (A), Leicester (H)
Brighton P27 Points 43 GD 5, Fulham (H), City (A), Villa (H), Palace (A), Leicester (H), Brentford (A), West Ham (H), Newcastle (H), Wolves (A), Liverpool (H), Spurs (A)
Fulham P27 Points 42 GD-4, Brighton (A), Spurs (H), Arsenal (A), Liverpool (H), Bournemouth (A), Chelsea (H), Southampton (A), Villa (A), Everton (H), Brentford (A),Man City (H)
Aston Villa-P28 Points 42 GD-5,Brentford (A), Brighton (A), Forest (H), Southampton (A), Newcastle (H), City (A), Fulham (H), Bournemouth (A), Spurs (H), United (A)

 

 

Edited by astraguy

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In case anyone actually needed this reality check, the difference in fixture run-in for each of the clubs involved in the race for the European spots is, you know, pretty much ineligible. All 20 clubs play the other 19 clubs twice, home and away, across an entire season.

 

That said, seeing what I've always said as visualised stats made my heart grow three sizes: 

 

SCREEN2025-02-28kl_18_30_28.png.5f3af2a57ba14a32f618ec7e822980f7.png

SCREEN2025-02-28kl_18_26_52.png.4b99fa65fe6169e6cf0937fe0f07ca25.png

 

That said, in the event that the run-in fixture nerds' are in the right and I'm in the wrong, they should be happy to see Fulham, Villa and Chelsea have "worse" run-ins in their fixtures than we do. On the other hand, Forest and Bournemouth have relatively much "easier" run-ins, with Brighton being just about on-par with us. 

 

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1 hour ago, Colos Short and Curlies said:

I suppose the only glimmer of a positive today is that we won't get a fixture pile up now

And all the sides we are competing with for top 5 are in winnable cup competitions so may take their eye off the ball for some games.

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