The Europeometer™ (2024/25)

[WilliamPS]

21 hours ago, TRon said:

 

Getting CL is more important to our growth than a Carabao Cup win in my books as well. Yes for me personally, I would cherish the cup win more, but for the good of our growth I honestly think CL is more important if we want to keep our best players.

I think this is only true to a certain extent. Players want to win trophies, and the narrative around Newcastle will be “go there and you’ll never win anything”. That has to change if you want to attract and retain the best players

 

The example to avoid is Spurs, who everyone would agree are the bottom of the big six pack, despite being financially competitive and having years in the CL, as the others actually win things. 

[The College Dropout]

5th will be CL. 

 

Villa Arsenal and Chelsea will progress in Europe. 
Villa won’t finish in the top 5. They would do extremely well to finish 6th.  I expect they’ll have a minimum of 5 cup games to play. They can’t play those and win 7 of their last 9 league games. 

[Ikon]

Have no idea about the similarities or differences, but didn’t everyone say last season that it was absolutely certain that the PL would get 5 spots? Even in the studio in Swedish television they said that it was dead certain. Then things changed surprisingly. 

[The College Dropout]

Just now, Ikon said:

Have no idea about the similarities or differences, but didn’t everyone say last season that it was absolutely certain that the PL would get 5 spots? Even in the studio in Swedish television they said that it was dead certain. Then things changed surprisingly. 

No.  
 

They said it at the start because history suggests England would based on the previous 10 seasons. 7 or 8 times England had a top 2 coefficient.  
 

But when us and Man U finished bottom of our CL groups (winning only 2 games between the clubs) it looked unlikely and by March it was gone.  

[Geogaddi]

6 minutes ago, The College Dropout said:

5th will be CL. 

 

Villa Arsenal and Chelsea will progress in Europe. 
Villa won’t finish in the top 5. They would do extremely well to finish 6th.  I expect they’ll have a minimum of 5 cup games to play. They can’t play those and win 7 of their last 9 league games. 

Villa also have to play 5 of the current top 9, they are a good team but no way should they finish above us looking at the fixtures they have combined with the extra FA cup and champions league games . I think the top 6 as it is now will be the same top 6 at the end of the season but in what order is the question.

[The College Dropout]

3 minutes ago, Geogaddi said:

Villa also have to play 5 of the current top 9, they are a good team but no way should they finish above us looking at the fixtures they have combined with the extra FA cup and champions league games . I think the top 6 as it is now will be the same top 6 at the end of the season but in what order is the question.

Agreed.  
 

I only see teams 3-6 going up or down a place maybe 2. 
 

Think Forests floor is 5th. 
 

Chelsea have had 2 of the easiest fixtures in the league.  I’m not sure they are any good. 

[Ikon]

13 minutes ago, The College Dropout said:

No.  
 

They said it at the start because history suggests England would based on the previous 10 seasons. 7 or 8 times England had a top 2 coefficient.  
 

But when us and Man U finished bottom of our CL groups (winning only 2 games between the clubs) it looked unlikely and by March it was gone.  

Ok so many did say it, but at the start. Cheers 👍 Good that it’s looking dead certain now then. 

[andyc35i]

We have 6 homes game left and they’re all winnable. Throw in Leicester away from home too and you’ve got a huge chance to win 7 games. We just need to get back to dominating teams at home as every game is massive - it’s still on!

[54]

The Athletic have done an article that mentions 11th could get European qualification this season under the following scenario:

 

1. Liverpool - UCL as Premier League winners

2. Arsenal - UCL via the Premier League

3. Nottingham Forest - UCL via the Premier League

4. Manchester City - UCL via the Premier League

5. Newcastle United - UCL via Premier League coefficient

6. Brighton - Europa League via Premier League (or FA Cup winners)

7. Bournemouth - Europa League via Premier League (or FA Cup winners)

8. Chelsea - Europa League as Conference League winners

9. Aston Villa - UCL as UCL winners

10. Tottenham - UCL as Europa League winners

11. Conference League?

 

[The College Dropout]

Man U could finish 15th and qualify for the CL if they win the Europa league 

[McCormick]

I’d rather get relegated than see Villa lift the UCL.

[TRon]

3 hours ago, WilliamPS said:

I think this is only true to a certain extent. Players want to win trophies, and the narrative around Newcastle will be “go there and you’ll never win anything”. That has to change if you want to attract and retain the best players

 

The example to avoid is Spurs, who everyone would agree are the bottom of the big six pack, despite being financially competitive and having years in the CL, as the others actually win things. 

 

I agree winning stuff is very important. But realistically if you are a team qualifying regularly for CL football, you will be winning cups as well more than likely.

[The College Dropout]

Winning the league cup has little bearing on qualifying for the CL. 

 

We don’t need to discuss this hypothetical.  

[The College Dropout]

Maybe it’s cope. But I’m starting to think the more PL clubs in Europe the better.  
 

These new European formats are killers for PL teams.  For all but the truly elite or lucky - it’s an automatic -5 points minimum. 
 

If Villa don’t have European football next year they’ll finish top 4/5 imo. 
 

If we had European football this year we would be at the bottom of the top 9 imo. 

[Davey_C_73]

I've done myself a little spreadsheet (as I don't have anything better to do).
I've just put random points in for Liverpool and Arsenal as I expect them to finish 1st/2nd.
Highlighted in bold are games already played.
Highlighted in orange are the teams competing against each for Europe and these are the games that'll obviously make the difference and are impossible to call.
I've not taken goal difference into account.
It's too close to call for me, although I do think Villa have too difficult a run-in to do well.

[The College Dropout]

6 teams won’t get 68+ points. 3 teams won’t get 70+ points.  
 

70 points will be enough for 4th. 
68 will be enough for 5th.  
66-67 may even be enough for 5th.