The College Dropout

You can’t look at the transfer window in isolation from financial regulations. It’s like being disappointed your dad only get you a bicycle for Christmas and ignoring the fact he’s lost his job. We’ve not played the Miggy situation smartly. He’s every right to sit on his contract that the new regime gave him. We could do a madness and force him out but that’s ugly. And it’s a self made problem.

The rest of the PL don’t want more super clubs. Every other club outside the top 6 has been relegated in the PL era (except Everton, and City have been relegated). And unless they get super owners - every other club can be relegated. The other clubs don’t want that. They don’t want us or Villa to have rich owners that can spend. Because of FFP 14 clubs can get relegated. They don’t want that number to keep decreasing. ATM we could do a Leicester and wage bill ourselves into a FFP hole and get relegated. Once we get our revenues £400m+ we’ll become untouchable even in dire times. They don’t want that to happen for us or to Villa or anyone else.

Douglas has no clue about the contract.

Would love a full link to that - not behind the paywall. I can’t find it now but there were reports in May/Early June that we needed 40-60m net revenue in accounting terms to be compliant with FFP for the season. Sky also said we were 1 of 6 clubs that needed to sell players to be FFP compliant. I refused to believe it at the time but it was true. This was a few weeks before the Minteh rumours went into overdrive and the random links to other FFP 6 club players.

@et tu brute I’m done mate. I’ve explained that we won’t know the financials relating to FFP until next June. Myself and others have explained that you can use financials from previous years, public information about revenue streams and FMV to ball park the key revenue/expenses to a decent degree. Swiss Ramble did it and were pretty accurate. We’ll know more when last years financials are released next year. So let’s not discuss it any further between us.

There was another big name CB at that agency we could be linked too.

Well not know until next June. we literally do have a clue about the clubs finances though. And football finances in general. We don’t know everything but we know enough to have semi informed discussions between fans. But That’s perfectly fine. We can stop discussing. The question was asked about which targets we prefer. Some people’s answer is dependent on how much we can spend on a RW as a result and FFP will be the limiting factor on that. So we are talking about FFP. You can ignore the FFP chat if you like. I like discussing ideas but we’ve had the same long FFP discussions in numerous threads. The original FFP point about Guehi is relevant to the thread.

Your first point is true, but people only deal with the information we know. And what we know doesn't sound great. Nobody is acting like they are 100% on the money with FFP. The bolded - again based on what we know. They may leave us needing A LOT of money come next June because that's what they did last summer. If we needed to generate £60m of sales, how would we do it again? I don't think the club would put us in quite the same position again without a better plan. But they might!

Agreed. We won't have to sell until next June though (if we do need to sell). I'm with you, I think we need to sign the "next" guys. Take a chance on wonderkids. Riskier transfers like Bruno & Isak. Even Gordon we bet on potential. I don't see how Guehi value could get much higher. Spurs got to the top by buying and selling the likes of Modric, Bale, Berbatov, Walker, Eriksen etc. Some big fees and reputations but nothing like this Guehi move in terms of fee or wages. I'm hoping we have a revenue hack otw. Because I don't get how this approach reconciles with our FFP position.

Well not know until next June tbf. I expect us to be much more conservative with FFP this season because this past June was a circus. BUT.. planning for sales before the next deadline in May/June is viable. We dont have to adhere come September. But we shouldn’t put ourselves in such a big hole unless we have more viable plans (planning to sell Lascelles for decent money is not a viable plan imo).

This might sound shady. Not intentional. Just sharing the info

Interesting. They’ve also got AG, Miley, Lascelles and Wilson. Hayden too. Among hundreds of others.

I promise this is the last time I mention it. You can’t mention the Anderson deal without mentioning the GK deal. Thats another £6-8m we’ve added to costs for the next financial year btw.

Amortisation doesn’t ’drop off’ until a players contract runs out or they are sold. So we fully amortised ASM and Wood in last years accounts when they were sold. Trippier and Burn extended their contracts last season so the amortisation saved should partly be reflected in last seasons accounts which we recorded mammoth losses until the end of June. And those are relatively small fees/amortisation costs. Barnes, Isak, Tonali, Botman, Gordon, Livra + Hall are all on their original contracts and will carry their full amortisation costs. Joelinton amortisation will be massively reduced but his wages have massively increased which offsets some of the gains. Ditto Bruno. The c300m is from Eales himself. We did £250m in the last published accounts. Last season will be c300m and with the lack fo European football or significant additional revenues we’ll do similar this season. Can a mod sticky the image in a thread please? Lots of people don’t understand how it works.

Sorry I was talking about a RW. Hypothetical. My position is if we can spend £60m on Guehi and get our top target at RW - it’s doesn’t matter how much cheaper Thiaw is. If we can splash the cash who cares right? doubt that’s the case though.

Our revenue is c. £300m this season as it stands. Our wages and amortisation is at least £280m. Probably closer to £300m. Unless we make sales or increase revenues elsewhere I don’t see how we can afford another £100m+ summer with Minimal outgoings.

Unless we make some real revenue gains between now and then - I don’t see how we can afford it FFP wise. 2x 60m signings will add about £40m maybe more through amortisation and wages, agent fees etc. I assume we have to sell to balance the books in that case. But we don’t have to balance them until next June. And way may find revenue streams

I thought we would do more of these types of signings. Thiaw vs Guehi depends on the impact on other transfers and FFP. If we remain compliant and can sign our highest RW target. Yeh Guehi.

I think it was previously more noticeable. He’s more aggressive these days in the air. And the way we defend and how other teams attack has changed. But I would still want his defensive partner to be better than him at it.

This is one of the more difficult aspects of the transfer. Long term this signing is Schars replacement. But for this season the signing is his partner. Guehi is perfect in the regard that he can play both sides and uses both feet to distribute. But he has similar aerial weaknesses to Schar. Also there has to be question marks about Botman going forward. A lot of players come back from ACLs and are never as good. While some go on to improve. I also prefer Branthwaite to Guehi because he’s more my type of CB. But there are definitely drawbacks - left footed, Guehi is a leader, Guehi far more experienced, Guehi quicker, Braithwaite better in the air, assume more potential to improve. Still think there’s better value outside the division. Our current quality CBs came from abroad.

Summerville to West Ham. Good price.

I'm not certain Eddie is sold on Hall either tbh. Especially with Guehi at CB this season next to Schar.

Loved me a bit of Leon Beast.

Carr is the worst shout here. Awful.

I never get too down. Or too up. Like the sound of this. I had assumed we would live up RB - Schar - Burn - Kelly/Hall Burns time at left back is surely done anyway.