The College Dropout

Do people have examples of when they thought Xg was wrong? I think sometimes specific shots might seem out of whack with the eye test. But not whole matches typically

With Nick Pope in goal, we were that type of side to overperform our Xga. Maybe it's some psychology to it. He intimidates opposition - maybe via making a few good saves, then they try extra hard to hit the corners or blast it to beat him and the shots go astray. Maybe we make those chances a little bit harder with him due to pressure on the ball or positioning. Lots of games with Pope in goal we withstood heavy pressure. Maybe he's just that good and Dubs is just that bad. But I think Dubs started the Chelsess game actually. I think Man U are that type of side. I expect the opposition to fall apart in front of goal against them. I've been waiting for the Xg/Xga stats to come to fruition all season and it doesn't (consistently). Opposition keep fluffing great chances and they keep being relatively clinical.

I think Milan was much the same but not as bad. On the balance of play, we should've lost that game as comfortably as the Dortmund game. I think the Xg for that game was something like AC Milan 1.8-2.2 : Newcastle 0.1-0.2. 8+ shots on target for Milan and 1-3 for us. On the balance of play, I don't think we deserved any points away from home in the CL.

Yeh of course. they had 31 shots. A full 14 off target. A bunch blocked. 7 on target. Even in these shortened highlights. They had 4 or 5 great opportunities. Some really poor finishing, some great goalkeeping and great blocks. Xg isn't predictive of the future. It tells a story of what has happened. It was wave after wave of attack and they were consistently generating opportunities. Xg and looking at data in general helps to reduce bias especially. IMO if we had last that 3-1 without the penalty, we couldn't complain. They sliced us open time and again and we offered little going forward for 45 minutes. But it hurts because they didn't and were gifted a penalty.

A penalty Xg is .8-.85. Their overall Xg was roughly 4.5-4.8. They had plenty of big chances. Sofascore says the had 8 non-penalty big chances, we had 2. Sofascore defines a Big chance - a clear-cut scoring opportunity, like a one-on-one situation or a shot from just a few yards out. Tbf Arsenal we were bad for 90 minutes. The PSG game was more similar to the Chelsea game. I'm a fairly avid FPL player And I find Expected stats very useful. It nearly always reflects something true to real life, especially over several games. Eg Darwin Nunez has excellent movement and gets on the end of lots of quality chances but he’s a poor finisher. He’ll routinely underperform his Xg. Son on the other hand routinely over-performs his Xg but he sometimes goes through phases where his Xg is prohibitively low, despite the strong finishing. He doesn’t do so well against low-block defences where his Xg dramatically drops.

They had loads of chances. Loads. Barcola in particular. They cut us open time and again. We were eventually robbed. But the defensive performance was bad like it was against Chelsea in the league cup, or Chelea or Arsenal in the league.

Liverpool Man City and Villa winning all 3 comps might snatch it. But the Liverpool one looks unrealistic atm.

Too many goals in the CL for me. I know I’m on the wrong side of history. But I miss 0-0 AET (5-3) on penalties. Atleti conceding 5? The game has gone.

Nah many people thought that was Almiron's level. And Almiron exceeded his Xg in that purple patch. Likewise the sample data for Barnes is too small. Even if he keeps it up until the end of the season, we can't draw solid conclusions. But we will see a lot of his style. His weight and technique when passing is impressive.

I'm with Pata on this one. There was substantial data on his expected assists over many seasons. It's fair enough to base on opinion on that. This small sample can't be compared to that. If he can maintain it, it will mean he has improved substantially as a player and/or that the system has allowed him to flourish. The sample data is too small to draw any conclusions atm. Most of his minutes have been off the bench when the game is more open too.

Thanks for sharing. Roughly Tonali amortisef transfer and wages for 2 seasons then. That's a lot of revenue to lose entirely. Which is why any European football is so important. A deep run in the Europa might net you half that? Man City get more of the pot because of their co-efficient right? Wow. The game is so rigged.

No.

What's the gap between Conference and Europa in terms of finances? The Conference League is exciting because we'll likely be one of the favourites. Europa is exciting because it's more prestigious and has 2 rewards.

Thi has been my fear for months. That Burnley draw a couple weeks back gave me confidence.

It took months for us to finalise compo with Brighton

It would only be accounted for 3 years and only 1 year under the new proposed rules. They actually try. We don't. No club is blocked from offering 6+ year contracts. But the amortisation of the fee is capped at 5 years.

If he was foreign he would get x10 the stick. When he's bad the work rate is 0/10. Doesn't track anyone. Press anyone. And when he gets on the ball, he can't do anything. pass nor dribble. Then he'll just sigh and have his hands out.

Amazing.

When Rashford is bad. he is BAD.

One guy is missing from that list.

Chris Wood is the type of hypothetical ‘backup’ striker people keep talking about. Anyone significantly better would need to start games regularly for us.

Beto looks a complete donkey.

I’m going to harp on about Palmer forever. The perfect RW for us.

Better in general play than I expected. Lovely technique and weight of pass.

Aye but we'll have much larger wages.