The College Dropout

Diaz has been poor since that Villareal game. Absolutely pocketed by Carjaval.

What do you think the stat is for? You use it with the eye test, not instead. Data aims to remove a level of bias.

He's only had 1 injury prone season like.

Well aye - it's a data point. He usually over performs and this season he under performed. Historic data suggests next season he'll go back to over performing. Although it could indicate a turn in fortunes. We'll see I don't think confidence was the cause. I had him most of the 2nd half of the season on FPL and he consistently ranked in the top 1-2 players for Xg and big chances and he clearly had confidence under Conte. He just kept missing and didn't look all that desperate to score either (more interested in playmaking). The Arsenal game was the only one he looked determined to score. Son had less Xg and Big chances but was consistently tucking them away and he looked hungry to score, constantly making meaningful runs in the box.

Yes but it's all relative. So Barcelona Messi Xg was incredibly high at like 25 but he would regularly outscore it by 5-10 goals per season. A great finisher with high xg = crazy goals. Typically someone like Son has fairly low Xg - 8-12 but he consistently outscores it because of his quality of finishing. This season his Xg was higher than usual but his over performance was higher still. Someone like Tammy Abraham in his best seasons has pretty high Xg 17-22 but slightly underperforms it. Not an elite finisher but he has good movement, pace, knows where to be in the box etc.

Do you have examples? I look at Lukaku. His overall Xg is low but he spent a lot of time on the bench. I thought Chelsea's style of play doesn't suit his style with the slow build-up. But his overall npxg is fairly high and doesn't line-up with my eye test. He does have a habit of a poor touch often that could lead to a shot that doesn't happen perhaps. I haven't dug deep into his stats though.

Aye on the ball his passing isn't of the quality we need. We need another baller alongside Bruno. But what Joe brings is extremely valuable but he needs more on the ball to stay in the team.

Disagree. It’s always a useful metric. It’s not deceptive - if a player consistently scores from range or daft angles it means you can rely on them to constantly outperform their Xg. It’s a data point. It’s useful as a data point. Their are many data points. I think confidence is also reflected in Xg. Confident players tend to get into better goal scoring positions and have higher Xg.

Rangnick was an unmitigated disaster of an appointment. Not qualified at all.

By all accounts Shola is an intelligent fella or at least comes from an educated family. I assume he could be a competent admin pro in a footbal club.

Xg is a useful stat. It tells a story. Slightly over performing it like 10 goals to 8. Something Xg is minor. And it’s clear that some players like Mason Greenwood are very composed finishers with great technique who will likely outwxore Xg throughout their careers. The eye test indicated Cisse’s run was unsustainable.

No bigger indictment of the Liverpool midfield than Toni Kroos completing 90 minutes. In each KO tie Kroos has come off because he had been over-run and outplayed but here Kroos did what he wanted for 90 minutes. Henderson did Henderson things. Ultimately not a danger when on the ball. Thiago - think he was carrying an injury. Was very poor. Didn't play those passes through the lines that he's brought in for. Keita played nervously when he came on. I think ultimately a Klopp midfield is going to lack a bit of guile unless they can spot the monsters. I think Fede Valverde is a monster. He doesn't have that guile but he's able to carry the ball through midfield. But it's rare you get an 8 with tremendous physical prowess to get through the running, the work rate and the guile. Seedorf, KDB but you can't think of many. I guess prime Lampard and Gerrard give you that.

I would still love Nunez.

I thougth Thiago was really poor. Didn't break those lines. Modric did that more and he's 36 and spent 45 minutes chasing shadows.

I like Ekitike but he needs to be our 12th man. I haven't seen him score any headers but he looks like he must be decent in the air. Glorious touch. Mobile. He's giving Ibra, Berba vibes with more ability.

Yes I think this a big part of it. KDB is pushed as this generational talent in a way Son and Salah aren’t. But it doesn’t make sense that he won it last year ahead of Kane too.

I disagree that Barca’s opponents where harder. City and PSG weren’t serious contenders at the time. Madrid beat those Bayern and Juve sides year in year out themselves.

Madrid beat both those Bayern and Juve sides in their CL wins either side of that Barca win. Nobody considered those especially magical runs. With the exception of Bayern (who were beaten by a non-elite team anyway) Madrid beat the 4 best teams in the competition.

Nah it’s a valid comment. Liverpool high praise as being some of the best ever. Their performances in cup finals don’t align with that. Madrid have conceded in every game in the KO round and have been behind in every contest. But beat Liverpool to 0 in the final.

I agree with this. But if Spurs or Chelsea where in the final - Liverpool would’ve won. Madrid’s character made it a much easier game. Liverpool had chances but they didn’t pummel Madrid. For a bit of a smash and grab it was pretty routine in execution.

Nah City and PSG weren’t as good as they are now. Madrid where reigning champions and a real favourite. Barca didn’t beat them. Everyone said City and Liverpool are the best teams in Europe this season. Some say 2 of the best teams ever. Madrid beat them both. PSG where favourites at the start of the tournament and favourites in their tie against Madrid - Madrid beat them. I think the bookies had Real as underdogs in all of their KO games including the final.

Real Madrid play with such character. Liverpool were the better team but they didn’t play at their best at all. Suspect defensively and ok going forward. This season when you against top teams - they haven’t been very good. They played 3 finals and scored 0 goals with the best attack in the league. 330 minutes. That’s not by accident.

But it looks weirder when the best team sweep all the awards. It makes the league look useless. The 2 individual awards went to players that didn't start 26 games. Manager of the year finished exactly where you would expect his team to finish. How many players have scored 20+ non-penalty goals in a 38 game season?

Vieira was tipped by many to be the first PL sacking so he should've been in the running. Brentford's Frank should've won it. I think all the awards this year have been bad. KDB only started 25 games and he won player of the season. IMO Son or Salah should've won that. Saka easily YPOTY over Foden. Played way more. More crucial to his team. More goals. More assists. Robbed.

No European league has extended so much power over the rest than the PL currently has. La Liga has never had so much money running through the league compared to the PL. Not for the last 20 years. Villa mean business and I like that for them.