The College Dropout

Yeh our issue is not going early enough on players anymore. We've stopped going after the profile of 2023 JP, 2023 Isak, 2023 Ekitike. We may still lose out on players willing to sit on PSG's bench but it's less frequent.

We needed a player who could bench Joelinton at times this season - potentially replace him. I thought that might be a combination of Wolte & Ramsey but nope not even close. Now we'll need to do something different maybe we might see it.

It's hard to find any productive PL wide players at top clubs tbf. Even Saka has been mid.

Ok that I agree with which I think is fine. --- HIis quotes are fair and honest. PL fullbacks are very good, not like those Dutch and Spanish training cones

I fear we'll see the back 5 out again.

Ramsey hasn't been taking meaningful minutes off Joelinton, Bruno or Tonali and is behind Lewis Miley for an 8 role. That's not doing fine. I'm sure he has 0 goals, 0 assists. That's not doing fine. Murphy has been doing fine. He mostly starts when fit and is a trusted player by Howe. Barely scored or assisted but trusted and has largely looked decent imo.

In the window he had the most influence over he signed: Elanga is 23 Ramsey is 24 Thiaw is 24 Woltemade is 23 + Wissa That's still considerably younger than our squad average. All of these (Woltemade aside who we signed an experienced player for the same position) had over 100+ top level mens appearances each. vs a window with Ashworth & Staveley: Hall signed at 19 Livramento signed at 20 31 mens appearances for Tino. 12 for Lewis Hall. Combined that's less than the player with the least experience in Group A. We do not attempt to sign the Hall & Tino profile any longer. Group A and Group B are distinctively different profiles of signings. Group A should all be hitting their peaks right now, Group B should still be developing. It's the difference between signing Madueke for £30m as a 20-year-old and signing Madueke for £55m as a 23-year-old. Everyone and their mum can see we've pivoted transfer approach and competence in the last couple years with the departures of Ashworth and Staveley.

Feels like the Owner dictates the approach. They've chanegd DOF but it's still a high turnover of players. Similar thing at Villa - always wheeling and dealing

There's no such thing as "whoever is left". We can look for different profiles and different markets, look at loans. When you decide you mostly need PL experience or a £60m+ forward then yeh your options might be limited. And some of the worst transfers were pretty high-up our list. Elanga and Ramsey.

I don't think Eddie would decide to spend so much money on a teenage fullback as his fullback signing for the first team. Most managers wouldn't unless they knew they had the time to bed them in over years - which few do. Hall was essentially 3rd choice LB for most of that season. After a couple bad 45 minute starts, he was benched. I also think perhaps the terminology is too strong. I think Howe agreed to the signing and was happy enough with it. But i'm confident his preference would've been a 24/25 yo Anthonee Robinson who would go straight into the first team. And had we signed Robinson we probably would've qualified for Europe simply not playing Burn at FB so much (as we would a non-suspension Tonali etc.) but we've the better left-back now. The more influence Howe has had on transfers, the more experienced our signings have been. Few clubs spend big bucks on teenagers, and if they d,o it's usually a club-driven transfer rather than a manager - unless the manager IS the club (Wenger, SAF).

I'm not some doom and gloom merchant. He is what he is, let's get support him to be the best he can be. He does have talents.

Imagine our competition is Sunderland, Liverpool, Everton and Man U, Man City. Demographic shifts - you still expect the midland/southern/London clubs to have an advantage. You'll get lads doing the Sterling to Liverpool, Sancho to City but most will stick to the London/south-east Academies.

I'm not blaming Howe for any signings. He shouldn't be in a position to sanction spending £55m on Elanga. @The Prophet Staveley was involved in every transfer window during her time at the club. Maybe not in an official capacity, but she spoke to prospective players and agents and was also seemingly the main conduit to PIF. From what i've read she had her fingers in every pie, although she allowed others to make decisions, she definitely retained influence/pressure (e.g. the Joelinton contract).

I agree with this. It is disappointing. But he can't play them to justify their signings alone. With the injuries and fixtures piling up again both will get their chance to start.

I hear it. And I am the same. We are getting to the stage as a club where cup runs mean nothing unless we get to Finals. And tbh I wouldn't be saying it if we had Southampton in the semi's. But taking a step back - we don't have the squad to compete on 4 fronts.

Great and informative post. Youth is one area we can just throw money at it and good pieces will stick. If only 10% make it, it will pay for the whole thing 20x

You said - we haven't a clue about what Howe thinks. Howe is picking football teams twice a week. He makes subs - usually the same subs. Patterns appear. It's pretty obvious what he thinks, actually. I think some fans - maybe like yourself jump to massive conclusions based on the evidence. If Howe doesn't trust a player right now, it doesn't mean he will forever not trust them. You were probably one of those writing Hall off or being in denial about where Hall stood in his first season.

Both are the level of player you expect us to be able to scout and pickup for sub £30/20m at 25 years old.

I enjoy reading your posts - thanks for the effort. My takes aren't meant to discredit your data or opinions btw - just constructive feedback

We've had so little that I think some fans think a decent level of competence means no mistakes or miscalculations have been made. Even the best-run clubs don't have the alchemy of successful signings down to a perfect science.

Aye Miley has continually performed well when brought in during injury crisis - not only getting him minutes in those moments but pushing him up the pecking order in general. He's now 4th choice CM. At the start of the season, he was behind a switch to a back 5

Have you looked into bookies odds? I think they would have better formulas than using last years finishing position. While they are still shit this season I think Spurs (A) is tougher from the bookies than their 15th place finish last season. And obviously home and away matters and is overly simplified based on league position. Also 12 is a big pool size. When talking form it's usually the last 5-6 in the league, not 12.

I don't think Livra or Hall were Howe signings - especially not Hall. As a football manager who prioritises winning right now (and Howe does exactly that), you wouldn't sign a 19-yo to come in and be your first-choice LB. We were linked with Anthonee Robinson too and he fits the Howe profile exactly. Lots of experience but still relatively young at the time. Tall and athletic but can play. Hall was always likely to need a year or 2 to develop. The more influence Howe has had on transfers the less we've looked to sign younger players for the first team.

There are some fairly obvious changes in transfers that also track with key personnel leaving. Easy example - since Ashworth left we've not signed a player 21 or under to start or as second choice. Since Staveley left we've struggled to sign high reputation players that might otherwise end up at big European clubs or top 6 - Woltemade maybe an exception but he didn't have the same pedigree of a Tonali, Isak etc.

Maybe that's what you do. I think Howe trusts Pope more than Ramsdale. Because when both are declared fit it is Pope that consistently starts. I think Howe doesn't trust Ramsey or Elanga at the moment to start to play the majority of football matches. Because both can have players in their position injured and Howe still won't start them. Both are getting less starts now than they did at the start of the season. That's not to say things can't change. With injuries and fatigue for others I expect they both start tomorrow. But unless their performances improve I can see Howe going with a back 5 to avoid playing both of them on the weekend.