leffe186

Oof. It’s apparently more flawed than I realized.

Three big chances? The back header? Forgot you get nowt for own goals . I think we’ve actually scored a ton this year, six or seven, which isn’t entirely surprising because of the way we attack. That’s another key bit of context. I’m amazed VDV’s goal counted for so little. This isn’t helping my opinion of xG

Yeah, although their keeper made four or five terrific saves . Maybe they gave Wood one whole xG for that miss (which incidentally Vicario did quite brilliantly to spread himself for). Like all stats, you still have to think a bit. I still have no idea what our game next week is going to be like. Much will depend upon whether we get the midfield right. Again, I feel like a ton of goals are inevitable.

That site has us losing on xG to Forest btw

Yeah was just considering xG there. How do they assign xPts? Like, by how much do you have to win the xG in a game to get 3xPts instead of 1? I kinda feel like the bigger picture has some significant margins, so like the top three are grouped together then there’s a whole load of us in a group where the variance doesn’t really matter. Then the key factor ends up being how good your keeper or CF are. Like, our keeper is shit hot at saving shots and our CF is historically good vs xG, so we’re always going to outperform it. I suspect Chelsea’s CF is historically bad at xG and you’ve had a backup keeper for months so that gives an immediate underperformance.

I do quite like Roy Keane as a pundit for the most part.

I did realize something, us only getting one penalty all season isn’t helping our xG

I think Chelsea were fourth, slightly above you. Our xG went to shit in those few games when everyone was injured but has come right back around now. There were a few of us around 49 in that table before the weekend. xG’s a useful tool in conjunction with other stats/analysis, but yours is a bit skewed by the Sheffield Utd game . The top three are miles away from everyone in every respect. I definitely think you’re doing the right things overall and the bigger issue is just that it’s a perfect storm for you. Your style puts players under physical strain and once there are a couple of injuries it becomes a spiral. It will be better next year and you just need to strengthen wisely. We can hope for (and I think expect) Liverpool to drop a little next year. I’m not confident that Man U will get much better, and I hope Chelsea will continue to struggle and Poch gets booted. Next year will be fascinating. I think some (a small minority) of your fans are overdoing the criticism of Howe and the fact that he’ll be in his, what, third (?) year with you is a big advantage. Not sure that’s the case for ten Hag though

Their defence is just a bit shit, and Jackson is nowhere near as good as he should be. It’s crazy that Cole Palmer is having such an unbelievable season and they’re getting all the penalties, and yet they’re still struggling to stay in the top half. You could argue that we’re all kinda where we should be, only Man U and Chelsea should swap places.

Midfield is not working, and I include the full-backs in that. Also we miss a proper CF with Richarlison injured. Were capable of blowing teams away in bursts, but too many players are out of form and we can’t seem to get any rhythm going.

That little touch off Romero sat it up perfectly for Wood.

There’s a little bit of a debate. I think most people think it’s a no-brainer at the price. He’s been pretty effective - loads of goals/assists and valuable in the Ange system. Experienced, fast as fuck, can go both ways. We all know the limitations. If he was a bit cleverer and more composed he’d be worth…oooh…whatever Chelsea paid for him. The people who don’t want him - not all that many I think - would rather keep the money and put it with a ton more to get a better player. I do see the argument, I’d just rather keep Werner at the price and sell someone else for a better player. I’m in the no-brainer camp.

Maddison gets fouled an incredible amount of times.

Right in front of the ref. Make your fucking minds up refs, it’s either a yellow or a red, just make it consistent.

Just have a feeling about him. He’s a project, for sure.

Subs, goals, penalty, Onana.

Most obvious yellow card of all time.

I’m hoping he continues to be shite and we pick him up for a song, because I think he’d be magic for us once he works it out.

He’ll make time.

Fernandes is everywhere.

Every time Quansah turns to play it back it makes me nervous

Yeah the night before and nothing to do with the game. If the police are ok with it then that’s fine. If they weren’t then we shouldn’t play it.

Absolutely love that camera angle for the penalty btw. Brilliant.

Liverpool are absolutely pissing this away.