Stottie

A short runup like that will all be about deception. Well in Pope for not being deceived.

Second time Brentford have scored an offside goal against us at 0-0 this season. Maybe a good omen.

I saw a list of other bans, including Trippier and Joey Barton, and it tends to take months to start On the upside, its likely to last well into next season and should knock down Toney's price. There won't be many teams with two performing CFs who won't be massively put out by Toney missing a good chunk of games next season. Most managers will need their new CF to produce straight away, for their own sake as well as their team's.

This any good?

Two each for Wilson and Joelinton, the changes he made. It's like he's playing chess in 4D. fwiw, Eddie Howe's NUFC now have positive goal difference in Premier League away games, overcoming the 0-4 at Leicester and 1-5 at Spurs etc. last season. https://www.twtd.co.uk/league-tables/competition:premier-league/daterange/fromdate:2021-Nov-21/todate:2023-Jun-01/type:home-and-away/

Just a test of ChatGPT, but it says our best totals in PL era are 1995-96: 73 points 2001-02: 71 points 1996-97: 68 points 2002-03: 69 points Yes, it could be achievable this year. 20 points from 10 games to match the record.

He's second in the league now in assists per 90 minutes played, behind KDB. He's got 5 in about 1000 minutes.

Up to 77% on the fivethirtyeight "supercomputer". It has us on 70 points.

Double figures for him so well done. Miggy already there and if Isak does it, how long's it been since we had three in the league?

Liverpool 0.2 xG vs. Chelsea, a team with no manager. They're not getting top 4. Good win for Brighton, because Bournemouth can be difficult. Brighton's big issue is against the top teams though. As for tonight, a bigger test for Man U than for us. Should be interesting.

Liverpool are shite away from home, 12 points from 14 games, but usually do well against Chelsea. Chelsea may also attack them, which plays into Liverpool hands. Pace on the counter is their main weapon. A boring 0-0 like the four hours of finals between them last year would do me fine.

I think we'll get 70 or close in keeping with our form for the whole season. We should stay on a roll with pretty much everyone fit. I think 65 plus GD would probably be enough for fourth though. I can't see Spurs getting any more than that with no manager. They have six of their nine remaining games against the current top nine, their record against them so far is P10 W2 D1 L7. Liverpool finished the season two years ago with eight wins and two draws, to rise up the table and knock out Leicester. They still have the attacking talent, but the rest of the team is creaking. Liverpool need 23 pts off 11 games, effectively seven wins, just to reach 65 points. They do better against strong teams, and have Chelsea and Arsenal up next, so maybe it can give them some momentum. As it is, they average less than one point per away game. I see us third and Man U or Brighton fourth as most likely.

I didn't realise until after Sunday's game, but these are the goals Man U have conceded in their hardest away games based on current league positions. Man CIty 6, Arsenal 3, Liverpool 7, Brentford 4, Villa 3. 23 in five games, more than us in all our 27 games. Only conceding 2 against us was an improvement!

Our defence is already league winning quality. Goals conceded tells us that. One or zero goals conceded in 23 out of 27 games, 13 of them clean sheets. The concern should be us winning only 13 of those 27 games (less than half ). That's what holds us back. If the betting trouble and ban will knock it down to non-crazy money, I'd make Toney number one target. Maddison too if still needed (well, Isak can play #10), and then go for a DM, possibly Tielemans because I have a personal weakness for overspec DMs who can shoot and spray it about. He's also high enough quality for Bruno cover, our biggest miss when he's out. Those three would add at least fifteen, probably twenty goals to the team. If there's cash remaining, I'd quite like another mid to cover the Joes (Billing etc). I wouldn't buy a wide player because Isak (when Toney plays), Gordon, Miggy, ASM (if he stays), Anderson, Willock, Murph (keep as wing back cover) is lots of options. For the defence, a young, high potential right sided CB or moneyball veteran would probably be enough. LB and wide forward can wait till winter or later. Don't buy an effton of players because "the group" are good lads and have got us into the CL and a final, defying all expectations. Block moves for Bruno, Botman, and Isak, even for 100M plus. If looking to cash in on someone, Almiron who's 29 might be the one if someone comes in with a big offer. I think ASM still has upside potential and brings something noone else does.

We missed Bruno in the home game against them. We started well and scored early but fizzled out after 15 minutes. There should be more about us this time.

Clear trip on Wilson in the box that gets given if its them. https://www.skysports.com/watch/video/12722953/ref-watch-it-was-100-a-penalty

This actually worked really well for us yesterday. His dribbling threat was enough for them to send a man over every time, leaving space in the middle when ASM did release the ball. The ball rolled throw empty acres before Willock blazed that one over. Doubling up works best when its the winger coming back (cough, cough Anthony), not a DM coming over. The problems in the past with ASM were from him not releasing it or us not having anyone in the middle, forcing him to just keep running into what may be termed "blind alleys". He's releasing it now more and we are giving him more options when he has the ball. He's also receiving it far closer to the goal than he ever did under Bruce.

All the stats nerds kicked off when we signed Bruno. JLA too did a "how the fuck are NUFC getting him" type video. I think we were in the relegation zone at the time. fwiw, the Atheltic's Tactics podcast nerds did a "who fills the Gini-sized hole in Liverpool's midfield?" a few weeks ago and the first name they mentioned was Joe Willock.

Billing was at Bournemouth when JT was there. I wonder if he rates him. He looks better than McTominay.

Yes, that would be fine and dandy. None of our rivals have good away form and several are below us in that table. Tottenham went 1-1-2 against teams averaging 1.1 pts a game at home.

The Martinez block from the Longstaff scuffed shot from the Isak knockdown probably stopped a goal. If we score that early in the game, I think they get a real hiding, five or six nil. De Gea wouldn't be set up to stop a mishit ball from that range, so I reckon its heading into the net.

A few months ago, Sanjay the stats dude on Twitter ran some numbers and they said Luke Shaw was his number one choice for our next LB. Probably wrong age profile, but he is very good.

The xG table I posted says Chelsea should have seven more points since Dec 1 based on chances created. Add just five to their total, and they would be level with Brighton with two more played. 5 behind Tottenham off the same games. That's not a "big mess". The big mess is Boehly. In case anyone has forgotten, Tuchel's team won the CL in May 2021 and finished third last season (21/22). In the PL, Tuchel's record was Played 63 Wins 35, Draws 17, Losses 11 For 109 Against 55. That's 1.93 points a game and nearly +1.00 GD per game. It will surpass whoever finishes third this time. He was sacked with them in sixth with 10 points off six games. https://www.premierleague.com/managers/15566/Thomas-Tuchel/overview

We've now scored the same number of goals as Man U and conceded half as many. Yet the general consensus is that they've been nailed on for Top 4 for weeks. They are playing a striker who looks genuinely worse than Chris Wood. At least Chris Wood touched the ball. Their key men are a combative midfielder who's been sent off twice and a (great) wide forward whose even-for-him hot streak looks like it's ended. The best thing they have going for them is their points already on the board. For us (and Man U), it's likely 15 points will do it, four wins and three draws from eleven matches. It's preferable some come from the Tottenham and Brighton games, but not essential. We could lose them both and it probably won't matter so long as we win some of the other games. I'm sure we'll get there. Four more wins. That's all we need.

Boehly He must be the only American who doesn't understand stats. Amazing considering how their sports are viewed. Expected points since December 1st. We should know this ourselves, but if you're missing chances, it's easy to get into a vicious circle of doubt and blame, which eats at self-confidence and makes you miss even more chances. It's not easy when things aren't going well, but jobs #1 and #2 are to keep the faith and block out the noise. As a new owner with a new manager, it can't be that difficult to answer every question with "we're doing a rebuild". We completely shat on Arsenal at the end of last season, but look at where they are now.