Stottie

Does anyone seriously think we'll just finish "in the top half?" Great result yesterday, but nothing that hasn't been coming. Rewatch the Palace highlights and they are the same, just without the ball going in the net. We even hit the post twice against Bournemouth. The fivethirtyeight supercomputer now has us three points of Champions League (four points off third) with a probabilty of 31% of getting in. If Brighton are going to help take points off people, it'll just get easier. All the stats have us solidly Top 4, but blah blah some people hate stats. https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/soccer-predictions/premier-league/

Villa and Everton put to the sword with a combined xG against of about 0.4 in 180 minutes. Zero shots on target conceded.

Miggy holy fucking wow!

Wow, unstoppable.

I see Ings as a bogey player for us, but I have more faith in our defence. One might be enough, and if we score twice we'll definitely win. An ASM cameo or more would be great too.

Up against Douglas Luiz, and I suppose Coutinho too if he gets a game. Our two did pretty well against Fred and Casemiro a couple of weeks ago.

I rewatched the extended highlights this week and it's amazing we didn't score in that match, even without the ridiculous VAR decision.

Anderson does look good, but he's not a big factor. We just need to get ASM and Isak on the pitch. ASM still leads the team with shot creating actions from open play and is joint top with Miggy with goal creating actions. That's with him only being on the pitch for four games (!!) Given how different he is to Wilson, Isak has made a great start and looks like he'll do the business. I think we'll finish in the European places.

West Ham play Man U this week, so that'll be a good test of where they are after their improving form. xG quite likes West Ham, but likes us more. We've not played West Ham home or away, and winning those two will be their best chance of catching us. They have individuals who can win games on their own, but I still can't see it myself.

The article doesn't mention him, but our best hitter of the long ball over the top is just back from injury. If this is a tactic we're going to be using, I wonder how proactive Eddie will be in getting him back into the team. Liverpool's goal of the season so far came from a clearance from their goalkeeper, so there's no shame in this tactic.

Under Gerrard, Villa away this season were P6 W0 D2 L4 F3 A11 GD -8 Pts 2, but the slate is now clean, I suppose. Most of the Villa hate goes back to that guy with the bantz banners when we got relegated, doesn't it? If this all-conquering NUFC 2.0 were to relegate someone, say Wolves or Everton, I hope none of our fans would take a gloaty banner because that's tinpot. Unless the team being relegated is Liverpool or Man U that is, in which case you can fill the whole stadium with gloaty banners, preferably some written in Swedish or whatever foreign languages their gloryhunting fans speak.

Shit decisions. The second one is not an unnatural position and he doesn't move his hand toward the ball. The first one clearly gives them an advantage and leads to the goal.

I have a lot of time for Danny Ings, I think he's the closest thing to Wilson in the league, good finisher, deceptively strong for his size, and the instincts to make sharp incisive runs. Mentally tough too. Does he score often against us or was it just that overhead kick? I've just watched the 4-0 vs Brentford highlights and didn't see much of note. Brentford conceded a sucker-punch short corner routine in the second minute, and that changes the whole game state. Nice to see a penalty given for a shirt pull in the box, but it was no different to the one on Dan Burn at Old Trafford.

Not at all. Look at the totals in the lockdown season. 59 points only got Everton 10th! https://www.soccerstats.com/latest.asp?league=england_2021 We're now up to 1.9 points per game in the 31 league games since Jan 1.

Just on the fixtures but Chelsea haven't played Arsenal, Man City, us, Liverpool, or Brighton. Arsenal, Brighton, and us up for them next. They're still third, but Tottenham's start to the season looked rosier before they played Man U and us.

It's easy to forget with everything going so well, but Maxi was phenomenal in the Man City game. The best player on a pitch including Haaland and KDB. Isak dumped Joe Gomez, Robertson and Allison on their collective arses and was quite possibly onside when doing so. This could get very very tasty.

Fantastic result. It looked a bit ropey with Tottenham's lively start, but a great save from Pope got us through it. A howler from Lloris but he has it in him and it still took a great finish. Can we call that a counter-pressing goal? Brilliant from Miggy who's gone supernova. Other than that, unlucky not to have a penalty. The 2-0 against Arsenal last season was no fluke, and it has been building toward us doing it in an away game too. Chelsea last season, then Liverpool, Old Trafford, and now this. You can't say it hasn't been coming.

This may need recalibrating for 65 points. My fantastic fact of the day is that we have played 11 of the top 14, i.e., everyone bar ourselves Arsenal and Chelsea. Out of the bottom 7, we've only played two teams, Forest and Wolves. Of the six games we've played against the top nine, five of them were away. Aside from Man City, every top team still has come to SJP. It's in our hands boys and girls.

Strong team! Here we go! No Anderson on the bench. I think the Burn over Target is because we effectively have three at the back with Trippier playing RM.

I would say we are competing with Tottenham now, so we can't just gift them three points. We have to go to there to get something. It would be better to beat them and lose to Villa. If FFP actually is a thing for us, any chance of CL qualification has to be grasped, because it means 80M or whatever in revenue and justification for Arsenal/Tottenham sized sponsorship deals. No-one can accuse Aramco (or whoever) of overpaying us if we are in the CL and Arsenal were paid the same by Emirates for not being in it for years.

Five thirty eight reckon Liverpool will finish third with 70 points. They have CL as 68 points. I think that's a bit low, but with at least seven teams in the running, the points total will come down as they take points off each other. If Brighton buy a goalscorer or Welbeck hits a purple patch, it's eight teams. https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/soccer-predictions/premier-league/ Since Jan 1, Eddie Howe is P 30 W16 D8 L6 F43 A29 points 56. That's 1.86 pts a game, which translates to a 71 point season. Under Howe so far, Chris Wood has played in more games than Callum Wilson. We now have Isak and Botman, a better keeper, and an in-form Miggy. It mightn't happen, but it's certainly possible, and that's before any money is spent in January.

Liverpool fifth bottom in expected goals against. Below Leicester even. If they swapped goalkeepers, Liverpool would be bottom three or not far off.

Eddie's done a full season's worth of league games now and the record is. P38 W17 D11 L10 F50 A47 Pts 62 (1.63 points per game) fwiw Klopp's first season at Liverpool 2015-16 (who were already in the Europa League after finishing sixth under Rodgers) P30 W13 D9 L8 F55 A40 Pts 48 (1.6 points per game)

Five wins out of five games at home for them so far, but the highest placed team they've faced is Fulham. Their games against the top half have all been away, where their record is 1-1-2. The win was 1-0 at Brighton, and the defeats were both by two goals. The draw was with Tuchel's Chelsea. So we're their first hard home game, a new test for them.

After last night, we are now joint second in points in the "first half table". https://www.soccerstats.com/halftime.asp?league=england The only two goals conceded were the City sucker punch and that Ruben Neves wonderstrike that went through Willocks legs (i.e., was nearly blocked). Doing so well in the first half suggests we are going into games with well-constructed game plans, no doubt the result of Howe's hard work and perfectionism. If we're winning at HT, there is no need to go hell-for-leather second half, so game state will massively affect our second half stats. However, we do seem to be tiring in games, and unable to do much from the bench. The bench is so weak that it would be unfair to judge Howe on his own ability to change games. As a bonus, look at Liverpool's first half stats.